Number 56 - June/July 2009
For Point of Divergence #56
Darn it all, time snuck up on me again and here it is, less than five days before I have to print this, that I'm starting this. With luck, I'll finish commenting to everyone anyway – and with even more luck, there won't be any more typos/grammatical stupidities than usual...
...mind you, not a high bar, that.
So, what's been going on since April, anyway?
It started with a bang. Having hit that most horrible of ages, fifty, I got to enjoy my first colonoscopy. Such fun! Actually, the procedure itself isn't a problem at all – you're asleep. It's the drinking a gallon of – and I use this term very loosely here - "fruit flavored" laxative over the day before that's the big kicker. Slightly salty, with just a hint of a milk flavor (no, I don't know how) and even less of a hint of its supposed "fruit flavor", it's just on the viable side of drinkable...for the first two or three glasses. As the day progresses, you look less and less forward to drinking the next glass. Finishing the last is both horrible and a massive release.
Anywho, I'm fine...and don't have to do that again until around POD Eighty or so...
In other news: We liked AJ Barile's pizza so much that we keep dragging more and more people to eat there. Now in their new place, we pulled in a group of nine this last weekend...one of whom has since started AJ Barile's Super Awesome Facebook Fan Club on, well, Facebook.
Meanwhile at work, part of the reason POD snuck up on me is that we are in the last couple of months before the new Library is finished. In theory, we will start moving on July 31st and be up and running by August 22nd, the start of the Fall semester.
So we've been getting ready.
One of the things we've been doing is throwing out a lot of stuff. You know, how after you'ved lived at a place for a while, things that you don't actually use , don't actually need, start to pile up? Oh, you should get rid of them, but somewhere in the back of your head a little voice keeps saying "but what if you need it someday?" - and, anyway, it's just too much bother?
Yeah, well, the Library's been in this building since 1966...you can extrapolate it from there.
I've been tossing manuals to things we haven't owned in a decade. I've tossed old software that came on 3.5 floppies...and 5.25 floppies! I'm surprised I didn't find an 8 incher in there!
I tossed the install disks for DOS 5.0! For pete's sake, I found a spare mouse with a serial connector!
Old BNC cards...dozens of phone cables for modems our laptops never had...a pair of Epson dot matrix printers that literally haven't been used since 1994 (and probably needing sandblasting to get the fifteen years of dust out of them)...switch boxes so two whole different computers could use those printers...and cables built to go from things to things that no longer exist except in computer museums1...it's all being given away, recycled, or just plain chucked in the bin.
And that's just from my department.
The "if we get rid of it we don't have to pack it" phase is winding down now and we're moving into the packing phase itself. Fortunately, we won't have to do the stacks – or indeed, move anything personally – there's a company coming in to do that. But we do have to pack up everything in our desks, at service desks, on "personal" bookshelves, etc., all into nice little labeled boxes. While, mind, still operating as a library for the students.
Hectic? You bet! But wait, there's more!
Some of the money for the new building is going into getting us a new Sirsi system for the library – you know, the computer that checks out the books and such. Which is fine as we need one (we can't upgrade the current six year old one's software any more because there's not enough hard drive space...and the administrative system here at the college that will buy us a whole new machine won't buy us a bigger drive. Don't ask, it's complicated...) and it would be nice to start off the new building with a brand new server...
...but not when we have to buy, set up, transfer data over, and get running correctly it during the same two months we're supposed to be getting ready to move! The Board won't even vote on whether we'll buy it or not until June 10th...which means the paperwork won't go through for a week after that and...
...well it boils down to we won't even be able to begin to set it up until July. And of course generally you'd like to run it parallel with the old system for at least three months to make sure, but...
Worse, of the many things they cut from the new building to save money and because "they won't need that," one of them is any 220 voltage on our floor...including in the computer room. And guess what our current machine uses?
So we're moving into a new building...that for some reason we had to fight to see the inside of even briefly during the construction...and setting up a new computer system, with an interface just different enough everyone will need some retraining. And doing this at the same time. Anything else?
Oh yes. Apparently, on the grounds that library people have it too easy, they decided to fire our current library director...now ...during the run-up for the move.
*SIGH*
I won't even go into the fact that other department's on campus are already trying to grab chunks of the new building ("when in doubt, the library doesn't need all that space" is a long-cherished belief at Rio. I mean, unless you work in the library), every time we point out something they did wrong the answer is "sorry, we can't change that, it's too late in the process" (ignoring the fact we usually first pointed out this back before they'd even hired architects!), or that – thanks to the massive budget problems here in California2 – many things we need might never be at all. Stuff like that, well, it's all SOP for Rio, so we're used to that. We just wish it wasn't all going on right now.
Nice building, though...
Late news: The move is running, well, late – not till the end of August...during the Fall Semester...
...mind you, not a high bar, that.
So, what's been going on since April, anyway?
It started with a bang. Having hit that most horrible of ages, fifty, I got to enjoy my first colonoscopy. Such fun! Actually, the procedure itself isn't a problem at all – you're asleep. It's the drinking a gallon of – and I use this term very loosely here - "fruit flavored" laxative over the day before that's the big kicker. Slightly salty, with just a hint of a milk flavor (no, I don't know how) and even less of a hint of its supposed "fruit flavor", it's just on the viable side of drinkable...for the first two or three glasses. As the day progresses, you look less and less forward to drinking the next glass. Finishing the last is both horrible and a massive release.Anywho, I'm fine...and don't have to do that again until around POD Eighty or so...
In other news: We liked AJ Barile's pizza so much that we keep dragging more and more people to eat there. Now in their new place, we pulled in a group of nine this last weekend...one of whom has since started AJ Barile's Super Awesome Facebook Fan Club on, well, Facebook.Meanwhile at work, part of the reason POD snuck up on me is that we are in the last couple of months before the new Library is finished. In theory, we will start moving on July 31st and be up and running by August 22nd, the start of the Fall semester.
So we've been getting ready.
One of the things we've been doing is throwing out a lot of stuff. You know, how after you'ved lived at a place for a while, things that you don't actually use , don't actually need, start to pile up? Oh, you should get rid of them, but somewhere in the back of your head a little voice keeps saying "but what if you need it someday?" - and, anyway, it's just too much bother?
Yeah, well, the Library's been in this building since 1966...you can extrapolate it from there.
I've been tossing manuals to things we haven't owned in a decade. I've tossed old software that came on 3.5 floppies...and 5.25 floppies! I'm surprised I didn't find an 8 incher in there!I tossed the install disks for DOS 5.0! For pete's sake, I found a spare mouse with a serial connector!
Old BNC cards...dozens of phone cables for modems our laptops never had...a pair of Epson dot matrix printers that literally haven't been used since 1994 (and probably needing sandblasting to get the fifteen years of dust out of them)...switch boxes so two whole different computers could use those printers...and cables built to go from things to things that no longer exist except in computer museums1...it's all being given away, recycled, or just plain chucked in the bin.
And that's just from my department.
The "if we get rid of it we don't have to pack it" phase is winding down now and we're moving into the packing phase itself. Fortunately, we won't have to do the stacks – or indeed, move anything personally – there's a company coming in to do that. But we do have to pack up everything in our desks, at service desks, on "personal" bookshelves, etc., all into nice little labeled boxes. While, mind, still operating as a library for the students.Hectic? You bet! But wait, there's more!
Some of the money for the new building is going into getting us a new Sirsi system for the library – you know, the computer that checks out the books and such. Which is fine as we need one (we can't upgrade the current six year old one's software any more because there's not enough hard drive space...and the administrative system here at the college that will buy us a whole new machine won't buy us a bigger drive. Don't ask, it's complicated...) and it would be nice to start off the new building with a brand new server...
...but not when we have to buy, set up, transfer data over, and get running correctly it during the same two months we're supposed to be getting ready to move! The Board won't even vote on whether we'll buy it or not until June 10th...which means the paperwork won't go through for a week after that and...
...well it boils down to we won't even be able to begin to set it up until July. And of course generally you'd like to run it parallel with the old system for at least three months to make sure, but...
Worse, of the many things they cut from the new building to save money and because "they won't need that," one of them is any 220 voltage on our floor...including in the computer room. And guess what our current machine uses?
So we're moving into a new building...that for some reason we had to fight to see the inside of even briefly during the construction...and setting up a new computer system, with an interface just different enough everyone will need some retraining. And doing this at the same time. Anything else?
Oh yes. Apparently, on the grounds that library people have it too easy, they decided to fire our current library director...now ...during the run-up for the move.
*SIGH*
I won't even go into the fact that other department's on campus are already trying to grab chunks of the new building ("when in doubt, the library doesn't need all that space" is a long-cherished belief at Rio. I mean, unless you work in the library), every time we point out something they did wrong the answer is "sorry, we can't change that, it's too late in the process" (ignoring the fact we usually first pointed out this back before they'd even hired architects!), or that – thanks to the massive budget problems here in California2 – many things we need might never be at all. Stuff like that, well, it's all SOP for Rio, so we're used to that. We just wish it wasn't all going on right now.
Nice building, though...
Late news: The move is running, well, late – not till the end of August...during the Fall Semester...
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Divergent Opinions - Comments on P.O.D. 55
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Kurt Sidaway
re: Sahel Confederation, pt2:
I'm going to point out right now any comments I make here can in no way do justice to this scenario – it's among the best ever in POD.
re: Maps:
Oooo! Shiny.
Really helps explain what's going on too. I note your Austrian Empire's only about half the size of mine (the Ukraine's most of that difference), but at least we both hung on to Venice...
I'd like to see a 1960's Europe map as well.
Really helps explain what's going on too. I note your Austrian Empire's only about half the size of mine (the Ukraine's most of that difference), but at least we both hung on to Venice...
I'd like to see a 1960's Europe map as well.
Dale Cozort
Congrats on Bear Country being published! You know I'll buy a copy, so that's one, anyway.
Personally, I'd email (if I could) "ABNA 'Expert' Reviewer #2" a nice little copy of your original outline, with the date of its writing nicely underlined...
...idiot...
Personally, I'd email (if I could) "ABNA 'Expert' Reviewer #2" a nice little copy of your original outline, with the date of its writing nicely underlined...
...idiot...
re: "Kyle Hits a Thylacine":
Hey, I remember this...always wanted you to finish it.
Kinda a cross between Char and the TV show Primeval – with a dash of Green Acres for fun.
It's actually a good story. Probably needs a bit of editing to tighten, but I can see it being published in Analog or Asimov's .
Mind, I seriously doubt you can hide a growing population of thylacines for very long (say, more than a year or so) - to say nothing of an alien – in the age of the internet. No matter how careful and determined to not let the secret out, eventually someone will innocently upload a picture of him and his hunting dog "Ol' Stripy" to Facebook or something...and before you know, it goes viral and I'm commenting on it on Digg.com.
But you can get away with things like that in short stories - "Just So" is a well-established tradition, after all.
Kinda surprised the paramedics refused to even come close to "Brow" - I mean, even if they haven't got a clue about what he is, "stop the bleeding, now" is pretty much step one3 and it's pretty obvious that no matter what the color, that liquid stuff is supposed to be inside him, not out.
But that's a nit.
Kinda a cross between Char and the TV show Primeval – with a dash of Green Acres for fun.
It's actually a good story. Probably needs a bit of editing to tighten, but I can see it being published in Analog or Asimov's .
Mind, I seriously doubt you can hide a growing population of thylacines for very long (say, more than a year or so) - to say nothing of an alien – in the age of the internet. No matter how careful and determined to not let the secret out, eventually someone will innocently upload a picture of him and his hunting dog "Ol' Stripy" to Facebook or something...and before you know, it goes viral and I'm commenting on it on Digg.com.But you can get away with things like that in short stories - "Just So" is a well-established tradition, after all.
Kinda surprised the paramedics refused to even come close to "Brow" - I mean, even if they haven't got a clue about what he is, "stop the bleeding, now" is pretty much step one3 and it's pretty obvious that no matter what the color, that liquid stuff is supposed to be inside him, not out.
But that's a nit.
re: "All Timelines Lead to Rome" pt2:
Ah! The plot thicks...just some quick thoughts.
Much more coherent version of "where are the portals" than the last time.
Ms Burgen has either managed to fudge the "weak spot location map" or come up with a much improved portal generator. Either, of course, fits the character.
There seem to be a lot more players in this "game" now. Higher-ups in the government apparently know about "pixies" - and that "Someone else is definitely tracking Darla Smith" suggests yet another party is involved.
If the "Pearson Theory" is correct, wouldn't the weakest areas be in Antarctica? That's about the last place any divergence would affect.
One thing: Since they're remaking The Prisoner for AMC as a miniseries, your "obscure pop culture reference" might not be all that obscure that much longer.
Can't wait for chapter five...
Much more coherent version of "where are the portals" than the last time.
Ms Burgen has either managed to fudge the "weak spot location map" or come up with a much improved portal generator. Either, of course, fits the character.
There seem to be a lot more players in this "game" now. Higher-ups in the government apparently know about "pixies" - and that "Someone else is definitely tracking Darla Smith" suggests yet another party is involved.
If the "Pearson Theory" is correct, wouldn't the weakest areas be in Antarctica? That's about the last place any divergence would affect.
One thing: Since they're remaking The Prisoner for AMC as a miniseries, your "obscure pop culture reference" might not be all that obscure that much longer.Can't wait for chapter five...
re: You versus the Computer Virus:
I would have tried booting off a CD/DVD/USB, then running a virus check from there...but whatever works.
re: Your Fears:
Well, you can cross off one of them now...
re: Only back up...:
As I write this, it's on both my computer here at work and the flash drive plugged into it – with a day-old version, on the computer at home (to be updated when I get there).
And, of course, as I type I save every so often, which means not only is it as current as I can get it on the drive, but there's a slightly less current automatic backup copy there too.
Data paranoia is my job...
And, of course, as I type I save every so often, which means not only is it as current as I can get it on the drive, but there's a slightly less current automatic backup copy there too.
Data paranoia is my job...
re: Big-name Authors in need of editing:
I honestly don't know if that's happening more these days – maybe publishers are cutting back in the editing department, figuring "these guys are proven sellers, why waste editing hours on them?"
OTOH, even back in the day, one friend in APA-L referred to a certain 70s Heinlein book as I Will Fear No Editor..."
OTOH, even back in the day, one friend in APA-L referred to a certain 70s Heinlein book as I Will Fear No Editor..."
re: Global Warming and Aerosols:
Hmmm. Does explain why warming seems to favor the higher latitudes.
re: Miscellaneous:
We're watching both Castle and Dollhouse. We especially like how Castle pokes fun at the competition (CSI-Miami). Ironically, for such a ridiculous premise, it seems to have a much more realistic depiction of Police than most of the other shows out there (like, again, CSI-Miami...<g>).
I watched Dr. Horrible when it first came out, very good.4 A sequel, or spin-off may be in the works.
BTW, it's Neil Patrick Harris in the title roll.
I watched Dr. Horrible when it first came out, very good.4 A sequel, or spin-off may be in the works.
BTW, it's Neil Patrick Harris in the title roll.
re: DaVinci Code:
The comic Rex Mundi recently wrapped up its series by pointing out that any of Jesus's genes ("The Grail" in both it and DaVinci Code mythology) would be shared by most of Europe, if not the world by now.
Earlier, though, the comic Preacher got "around" the problem by having Jesus's descendants marry one-another – with no outside input – for the last two-thousand years...with predictable results...
Earlier, though, the comic Preacher got "around" the problem by having Jesus's descendants marry one-another – with no outside input – for the last two-thousand years...with predictable results...
re: TV Worth Watching:
We watch Chuck too. Fun – and who knew Burbank was the center for world espionage!
BTW, to one and all, an excellent show on HBO is The No. 1 Ladies' Detective Agency, based on the mystery series by the same name, with Jill Scott as Precious Ramotswe, the detective. It's one of the few movies, TV shows, anythings-other-than-the-original-books, that the author of the books – in this case, Alexander McCall Smith – actually thinks is good.5
It manages to combine mysteries with human drama with actually showing an African country as a real place, rather than either the home of an Evil Dictator, Lost City, or any Westerners Going Back to Nature...
Oh. And it seems to have actually created the Botswana film industry.
First season just finished up, and no doubt there'll be a second. Recommended.
BTW, to one and all, an excellent show on HBO is The No. 1 Ladies' Detective Agency, based on the mystery series by the same name, with Jill Scott as Precious Ramotswe, the detective. It's one of the few movies, TV shows, anythings-other-than-the-original-books, that the author of the books – in this case, Alexander McCall Smith – actually thinks is good.5It manages to combine mysteries with human drama with actually showing an African country as a real place, rather than either the home of an Evil Dictator, Lost City, or any Westerners Going Back to Nature...
Oh. And it seems to have actually created the Botswana film industry.
First season just finished up, and no doubt there'll be a second. Recommended.
re: How old is your brain:
Well, younger than the rest of me...at least, once I figured out what to do (you didn't say the instructions were in Japanese!).
re: Years Without Summers:
"Actually a summerless year...would have a major impact on history. So would a similar year in 1930 or 1931, the the Great Depression was starting to bite."
Hmmm. I could move my old "The Long Valley Erupts" scenario back a couple of years for that one...
...I really should do some more on it anyway.
Hmmm. I could move my old "The Long Valley Erupts" scenario back a couple of years for that one...
...I really should do some more on it anyway.
ct: Me:
I've been stung a couple of times by bees, but never by a wasp. I'd like to keep it that way...
I am constantly surprised that AOL still exists. But then, I've been in that state since the late 1990s.
I am constantly surprised that AOL still exists. But then, I've been in that state since the late 1990s.
Mark Ford
Like Victoria, Southern California gets its own share of multi-thousand acre fires every Summer (edging into Spring and Fall these days, what with the drought and all), and their accompanying destroyed homes and skies brownish-yellow with smoke. Not fun. Not fun at all...
Add in the fact that now Dee Dee is one of those "sensitive" people (as in the phrase "breathing the outdoor air should be avoided by children, the aged and other sensitive people") and we've got icing on the cake.
Add in the fact that now Dee Dee is one of those "sensitive" people (as in the phrase "breathing the outdoor air should be avoided by children, the aged and other sensitive people") and we've got icing on the cake.
re: Southern Strategy:
"...proclaims the freedom of any slave who agrees to fight for King and Country. In addition to the existing loyalist communities...a new [one] has been created out of thin air." How likely is it that this creation will tick off some of the existing loyalists enough to have them change loyalties, figuring "better a rich American rebel than a poor English loyalist"?
I suspect that the British southern "states" will also expand westward as time goes by (at least, to the Mississippi), if only to prevent the U.S. from expanding west and south to surround them. If so, does Britain confiscate the Louisiana territory, come Napoleon times? That's got to freak the States (assuming they develop the same sort of "Manifest Destiny" feelings they did on OTL), because now they're the ones surrounded, by the British South, British Canada, British Louisiana and the just as British HBC territories.
Even sans this, since Britain has the original "cotton states" - and has already abolished slavery in them well before cotton gin times – this is going to drastically cut the number of Africans "forcibly imported" to North America. This, in turn, is probably going speed up the removal of slavery in the United States as King Cotton's need for them is there a non-existent issue.
A *War of 1812 – if it occurs - would be interesting, if only because the United States is in a much worse position here, even if not in that "surrounded" position I mentioned earlier. Britain is going to have a lot more people (and a lot more troop support) in the British South then it could afford in Canada, so the U.S. is fighting a multi-front war from day one. Plus the tribal Nations in the area are almost all likely to fight on the British side (and a lot easier to supply from Georgia then Canada!) and the United States are also proportionally smaller and weaker than on OTL.
Starting the war was pretty dumb here – in this ATL, the U.S. would have to be concrete-block-wall stupid to do it. Mind you, we can do concrete-block-wall stupid...
You've got a much different North America here.
I suspect that the British southern "states" will also expand westward as time goes by (at least, to the Mississippi), if only to prevent the U.S. from expanding west and south to surround them. If so, does Britain confiscate the Louisiana territory, come Napoleon times? That's got to freak the States (assuming they develop the same sort of "Manifest Destiny" feelings they did on OTL), because now they're the ones surrounded, by the British South, British Canada, British Louisiana and the just as British HBC territories.
Even sans this, since Britain has the original "cotton states" - and has already abolished slavery in them well before cotton gin times – this is going to drastically cut the number of Africans "forcibly imported" to North America. This, in turn, is probably going speed up the removal of slavery in the United States as King Cotton's need for them is there a non-existent issue.
A *War of 1812 – if it occurs - would be interesting, if only because the United States is in a much worse position here, even if not in that "surrounded" position I mentioned earlier. Britain is going to have a lot more people (and a lot more troop support) in the British South then it could afford in Canada, so the U.S. is fighting a multi-front war from day one. Plus the tribal Nations in the area are almost all likely to fight on the British side (and a lot easier to supply from Georgia then Canada!) and the United States are also proportionally smaller and weaker than on OTL.
Starting the war was pretty dumb here – in this ATL, the U.S. would have to be concrete-block-wall stupid to do it. Mind you, we can do concrete-block-wall stupid...
You've got a much different North America here.
ct: Me (POD 53):
"That was until you list of other Disney movies made during the early 1960s, the one thing that strikes me...is how many of the stories are from other countries and earlier periods."
So we need a story (hopefully in the public domain) that's old enough Disney's mental space at the time would go "this should make a good family film."
Verne as the author, though, seems unlikely. He preferred his adventures to be set on Earth (with the exception of the two "Moon" books – and even there only the second is actually in space). He also didn't go in much for wars, other than have the occasional character try to eliminate them.
It strikes me that, in order to get a Star Wars in this climate, we need to be looking at HG Wells instead. Perhaps Disney picks up the classic War of the Worlds – but discovers not even the best Disney-fication can make it upbeat with a happy ending. So they combine it with the Edison's Conquest of Mars "sequel" (available, cheap) and, vola! A story of space war with an "upbeat" ending (unless you're a Martian...<g>) both set in that late 19th, early 20th century time Disney liked, filled with action, and with some good uplifting morals as well.
Okay, now I'm worried – this could have happened.
So we need a story (hopefully in the public domain) that's old enough Disney's mental space at the time would go "this should make a good family film."
Verne as the author, though, seems unlikely. He preferred his adventures to be set on Earth (with the exception of the two "Moon" books – and even there only the second is actually in space). He also didn't go in much for wars, other than have the occasional character try to eliminate them.
It strikes me that, in order to get a Star Wars in this climate, we need to be looking at HG Wells instead. Perhaps Disney picks up the classic War of the Worlds – but discovers not even the best Disney-fication can make it upbeat with a happy ending. So they combine it with the Edison's Conquest of Mars "sequel" (available, cheap) and, vola! A story of space war with an "upbeat" ending (unless you're a Martian...<g>) both set in that late 19th, early 20th century time Disney liked, filled with action, and with some good uplifting morals as well.
Okay, now I'm worried – this could have happened.
ct: Dale Cozort:
Oh, Jurassic Park (book and movies) were way before 3001: Final Odyssey. It came out in 1997 – the Jurassics were 1990 (book) and 1993 (movie), respectively.
Mind, it wasn't a new idea even then (L Neil Smith had restored mammoths in the early 80s in one of his books...for sale as mammoth burgers, of course) and probably it all dates back to a short story (I want to say by Asimov, but it probably isn't6) where someone builds a time portal thingy, but the only thing they can pull through it before it fails is a bunch of dinosaur eggs, that hatch into small (chicken-sized) theropods – which is a big disappointment for someone fishing for a Brontosaur or such.
Now broke, there's a fire at their house and one of the little theropods gets roasted...at which point they find out it's extremely delicious7...and go into the very lucrative dino-chicken dinner business.
Mind, it wasn't a new idea even then (L Neil Smith had restored mammoths in the early 80s in one of his books...for sale as mammoth burgers, of course) and probably it all dates back to a short story (I want to say by Asimov, but it probably isn't6) where someone builds a time portal thingy, but the only thing they can pull through it before it fails is a bunch of dinosaur eggs, that hatch into small (chicken-sized) theropods – which is a big disappointment for someone fishing for a Brontosaur or such.
Now broke, there's a fire at their house and one of the little theropods gets roasted...at which point they find out it's extremely delicious7...and go into the very lucrative dino-chicken dinner business.
Me
It occurs to me that I have not yet converted this into web format for my site (it is now). Then, I usually find lots of typos, weird wordings, etc. to fix...
...which makes the number I can see just casually reading this rather frightening...
Still no clue what to do with Blue Flash – maybe I'll dream up an ending...<g>
...which makes the number I can see just casually reading this rather frightening...
Still no clue what to do with Blue Flash – maybe I'll dream up an ending...<g>
Robert Gill
re: #2 - Shorter [Civil] War:
"No bullet in the head, given less time for C.S.A. animosity to fester?" I think it's possible there'd actually be more attempts (if not more successes...<g>) in such a TL. With two years less fighting – and the South correspondingly less torn up and drained – more people would think that a nicely planned assassination might actually accomplish something, besides revenge. "The South Will Rise Again," and all that.
Mind, if Doctor Sotos – who has suggested that Lincoln was suffering from fatal thyroid cancer (he wants to do a genetic test on a Lincoln pillow for the gene MEN2B) – is correct, then there's a good chance Lincoln wasn't going to last out his second term no matter what his theater habits.
And how is a Lincoln dying of something like cancer – rather than an assassin's bullet - going to change how people see him?
Mind, if Doctor Sotos – who has suggested that Lincoln was suffering from fatal thyroid cancer (he wants to do a genetic test on a Lincoln pillow for the gene MEN2B) – is correct, then there's a good chance Lincoln wasn't going to last out his second term no matter what his theater habits.
And how is a Lincoln dying of something like cancer – rather than an assassin's bullet - going to change how people see him?
re: #9 – Lincoln turns Fort Sumter into "Gitmo":
"...the Confederate government discourages trigger-happy South Carolina militiamen from initiating violence." I personally think this one fails right there – South Carolina was a Civil War just waiting to happen...and it was real fidgety waiting...
This POD requires a CSA government that realizes, basically, if they start a war, they'll lose it – which makes it hard to see why they'd risk seceding in the first place.
Then, having made this realization, it requires that can actually impose its will successfully on its member states...and, honestly, that's not going to happen.
Then it requires that the whole CSA "stay[s] the course" for more years than any government with elections approaching is ever likely to manage.
This POD requires a CSA government that realizes, basically, if they start a war, they'll lose it – which makes it hard to see why they'd risk seceding in the first place.
Then, having made this realization, it requires that can actually impose its will successfully on its member states...and, honestly, that's not going to happen.
Then it requires that the whole CSA "stay[s] the course" for more years than any government with elections approaching is ever likely to manage.
re: Picture of the "Washington":
Yes, Virginia, Lowe invented the aircraft carrier (if memory serves, for the Peninsular Campaign)...
ct: Me:
"'that Japan would be empty of Japanese by 3000 C.E., given present trends.' Does this assume those present trends will continue uninterrupted, for centuries? Doesn't seem very realistic." *SHRUG* Of course not – but even a single century of such rates will cut the population in half.
And, anywho, any prediction of more than a decade of such things are going to drift off into "we think" and "probably" land...things do change. Still, since the original reason for this statement was my trying to refute the suggestion that there'd always be a lack of free space for repopulating from one of my "V-Zoos",8 well, "things do change" works just as well as a brute force following of current trends.
And, anywho, any prediction of more than a decade of such things are going to drift off into "we think" and "probably" land...things do change. Still, since the original reason for this statement was my trying to refute the suggestion that there'd always be a lack of free space for repopulating from one of my "V-Zoos",8 well, "things do change" works just as well as a brute force following of current trends.
Wesley Kawato
Couple of things on your revised scenario:
If the Japanese take Midway, I'd actually expect it to speed up their defeat rather than delay it. Because if they take it, they are going to throw a lot of effort into keeping it – and that effort will have to be proportionally greater than, say, if they they were holding an island much closer to home, because they'll be right at the very edge of their ability to operate, while the U.S. will more than four times closer to their home turf. Heck, even if they utterly destroy Hawaii, bases in California are still a thousand miles closer than the Japanese have to travel.
So, lots and lots of extra fuel gets burned up. Lots and lots of extra cargo ships/tankers get sunk, and while trying to defend them, the Japanese lose lots and lots of extra capital ships & subs. And, in the end, they get kicked off anyway. Meanwhile, there's bits of the Pacific they won't pick up on this ATL that they did on OTL simply because the men and equipment are busy at Midway.
Oh, the Americans lose stuff too – but it's likely to be less than they did historically since they're fighting a lot closer to home than they were (heck, from Hawaii, B-17's could probably bomb both Midway and ships headed there, which adds to U.S. firepower. I say "probably" because this would be right at the limit of their range, but I suspect they'd try it, at least). Besides, they can build more, something the Japanese can't really do all that much of.
So by the end of 1942, maybe a couple of months into 1943, Japan actually has less to fight with than on OTL while the United States has more .
Personally, if I wanted the Japanese to last longer, I'd have them drop the whole Pearl Harbor thing altogether. Indeed, I'd have them stay west of about 160o E, concentrate on building up their forces for defense and let the Americans have to come to them to fight. Let them have the four-thousand mile long supply line.
Better, no Pearl Harbor and the U.S. is likely to send the Battleships there west once the war starts – the ever popular "Plan Orange" - to get sunk far from home, permanently taking them and all their men out of the war.
Still, I honestly don't think you can "slow down the Allies long enough for the Germans to build the atomic bomb first" because I strongly suspect that we're talking about a "delay" stretching into the early 50's.
Germany just didn't have the resources the Allies could throw at developing a nuke and – even with a "slower" Allied advance – most of their resources are simply just going to have to be used to hold the line. Worse, even with a slower "Manhattan Project," for whatever reasons, the Allies are still going to get the bomb first – and then the Berlin crater will glow faintly in the moonlight...
Heck, assuming they weren't at war and Germany threw everything they had to spare (which wasn't a lot, given how inefficient the Nazi economy was) at the problem, I can't see them making the atoms go "boom" before 1948. The Soviets – who had a lot more resources to throw at the problem and an actual working spy corps in the U.S. to snag useful info – didn't manage it until 1949, so I'm being generous giving the Germans 1948 here. Like I said, I'd plug for the early to late 50's as a completion date.
Again, that's with everything they've got going to atomic research. If they have to do anything else with their resources – say, hold off Russian tanks or occupy France – that date simply gets further away.
BTW, your "goal" of "prevent[ing] the Vietnam War from happening a generation later" isn't going to happen in this TL. Oh, it won't be the U.S. involved in this war – instead it'll be Imperial Japan – but that war's going to happen...and probably about the same time as the one in Laos, and Cambodia, and China, and the Philippines, and...
...Japan's in for a world of hurt.
If the Japanese take Midway, I'd actually expect it to speed up their defeat rather than delay it. Because if they take it, they are going to throw a lot of effort into keeping it – and that effort will have to be proportionally greater than, say, if they they were holding an island much closer to home, because they'll be right at the very edge of their ability to operate, while the U.S. will more than four times closer to their home turf. Heck, even if they utterly destroy Hawaii, bases in California are still a thousand miles closer than the Japanese have to travel.
So, lots and lots of extra fuel gets burned up. Lots and lots of extra cargo ships/tankers get sunk, and while trying to defend them, the Japanese lose lots and lots of extra capital ships & subs. And, in the end, they get kicked off anyway. Meanwhile, there's bits of the Pacific they won't pick up on this ATL that they did on OTL simply because the men and equipment are busy at Midway.
Oh, the Americans lose stuff too – but it's likely to be less than they did historically since they're fighting a lot closer to home than they were (heck, from Hawaii, B-17's could probably bomb both Midway and ships headed there, which adds to U.S. firepower. I say "probably" because this would be right at the limit of their range, but I suspect they'd try it, at least). Besides, they can build more, something the Japanese can't really do all that much of.
So by the end of 1942, maybe a couple of months into 1943, Japan actually has less to fight with than on OTL while the United States has more .
Personally, if I wanted the Japanese to last longer, I'd have them drop the whole Pearl Harbor thing altogether. Indeed, I'd have them stay west of about 160o E, concentrate on building up their forces for defense and let the Americans have to come to them to fight. Let them have the four-thousand mile long supply line.
Better, no Pearl Harbor and the U.S. is likely to send the Battleships there west once the war starts – the ever popular "Plan Orange" - to get sunk far from home, permanently taking them and all their men out of the war.
Still, I honestly don't think you can "slow down the Allies long enough for the Germans to build the atomic bomb first" because I strongly suspect that we're talking about a "delay" stretching into the early 50's.
Germany just didn't have the resources the Allies could throw at developing a nuke and – even with a "slower" Allied advance – most of their resources are simply just going to have to be used to hold the line. Worse, even with a slower "Manhattan Project," for whatever reasons, the Allies are still going to get the bomb first – and then the Berlin crater will glow faintly in the moonlight...
Heck, assuming they weren't at war and Germany threw everything they had to spare (which wasn't a lot, given how inefficient the Nazi economy was) at the problem, I can't see them making the atoms go "boom" before 1948. The Soviets – who had a lot more resources to throw at the problem and an actual working spy corps in the U.S. to snag useful info – didn't manage it until 1949, so I'm being generous giving the Germans 1948 here. Like I said, I'd plug for the early to late 50's as a completion date.
Again, that's with everything they've got going to atomic research. If they have to do anything else with their resources – say, hold off Russian tanks or occupy France – that date simply gets further away.
BTW, your "goal" of "prevent[ing] the Vietnam War from happening a generation later" isn't going to happen in this TL. Oh, it won't be the U.S. involved in this war – instead it'll be Imperial Japan – but that war's going to happen...and probably about the same time as the one in Laos, and Cambodia, and China, and the Philippines, and...
...Japan's in for a world of hurt.
Tom Cron
Neat. Especially considering Kurt's take on the period in this disty.
Anthony Docimo
"Are we, even now, seeing the rise of a new sub-genre? AH Futures?" There's been a few others (Thomas Harlan's The Time of the Sixth Sun series comes to mind, and of course L Neil Smith's North American Confederacy went quite a bit into the future), but to me, well, what's the point?
Unless it's a near future, where one sees hints of what the history was like in "current" time as well, the difference between a story about a future interplanetary Aztec-like culture and actual future interplanetary Aztecs is basically just nit-picking.
I mean, with Nikolai Dante, almost seven-hundred years into the future, it means OTL Russia could have had three or four forms of government in the intervening time and once again be an Empire, this time straddling the whole galaxy...and end up just the "same" (as far as fictional creations go) as one where "the Russian Revolution never happened..."
Doesn't mean it can't be a good story, mind. It just means I'm not going to class them as AH.
Unless it's a near future, where one sees hints of what the history was like in "current" time as well, the difference between a story about a future interplanetary Aztec-like culture and actual future interplanetary Aztecs is basically just nit-picking.
I mean, with Nikolai Dante, almost seven-hundred years into the future, it means OTL Russia could have had three or four forms of government in the intervening time and once again be an Empire, this time straddling the whole galaxy...and end up just the "same" (as far as fictional creations go) as one where "the Russian Revolution never happened..."
Doesn't mean it can't be a good story, mind. It just means I'm not going to class them as AH.
re: German vs Russia, 1939:
Interesting idea. But can you get a Germany with enough resources to invade the Soviet Union two years early? I'm led to understand the Polish invasion on OTL was kinda a shoe-string operation, so pulling together the men an materials to invade Russia at that time (especially without two years worth of European plunder) seems unlikely.
A Poland that acquiesces to several million German soldiers "commuting" across its territory seems even more unlikely. From their point of view such a move brings trouble no matter the outcome. If Germany wins...then Poland is surrounded by Germany, and not even the most naive Polish official is going to fail to notice that pretty much ends their independence, even if they technically remain a "separate" country. They'll be a weak German vassal at best, "mop-up" at worse.
And if Germany loses, then there's the fact that the Russians are going to feel Poland is an "ally" of Germany ("you let them through, you're their ally, deal with it") and will be marching through Polish territory RSN.
"Heads they win, tails we lose" is pretty much the situation if they let Germany transit.
A Poland that acquiesces to several million German soldiers "commuting" across its territory seems even more unlikely. From their point of view such a move brings trouble no matter the outcome. If Germany wins...then Poland is surrounded by Germany, and not even the most naive Polish official is going to fail to notice that pretty much ends their independence, even if they technically remain a "separate" country. They'll be a weak German vassal at best, "mop-up" at worse.
And if Germany loses, then there's the fact that the Russians are going to feel Poland is an "ally" of Germany ("you let them through, you're their ally, deal with it") and will be marching through Polish territory RSN.
"Heads they win, tails we lose" is pretty much the situation if they let Germany transit.
Surprisingly – given how important to Pasadena he is – the Pasadena Public Library doesn't have a copy. Neither does the much larger L.A. Public.