Number 52 - Aug/Sep 2008
For Point of Divergence #52

Wall-E, a brigher futureA few interesting things going on 'round here. A friend of ours who we haven't seen in a couple of years (hi Gina!) flew back in from Virginia for a week. We spent about half that time in Vegas, half here (where we all went to see WALL-E when it opened. I suggest you do too), and all of it trying new places to eat. Then she flew off back to Virginia...a flight that took twelve hours because her first plane basically broke down as it left the terminal...

Some reviews of various things

Monorail mapLas Vegas Monorail: While in Vegas, we road the new Las Vegas Monorail, which basically runs more or less parallel to the strip from the Sahara to the MGM Grand.1 Well, since I did that great big “Alweg” timeline and all (and have always liked monorails), I figured I aught to review it.

I was not favorably impressed.

First of all, it's expensive at $5 a ride (or $11 for a “24 Hour Pass” which admittedly is better). Not too bad if there's only one of you...but if there's two or more of you going somewhere together, suddenly even taxi rides are cheaper (with tip).

Secondly, those selfsame taxi's will let you off at main entrances – the monorail stations are (almost) all in the back of the hotels2 and most with a long walk to wherever you want to go (often just as far or farther as if you just walked between the hotels...and just as outside).

Las Vegas MonorailFinally, it feels about as stable as a Yugo with bad shocks...on cobblestones. It bumps up and down. It jerks as it accelerates. It rocks all the time. I've ridden the Disneyland monorail since I was one...have ridden the Seattle monorail...have ridden other themepark and “rides” monorails all around the west...and this is the first one I've ever ridden that felt like it was going to roll sideways off the beam – which is not a nice feeling when your fifty feet in the air. And it doesn't help with the rolling that the route they've got curves back and forth (with some 90o “curves”) all over the place, with lots of ups and downs as well.

Mind you, it's had a lot of problems. It went over budget during construction. It's dropped things from trains to the ground below (like axles!). And – like most mass transit systems – it's losing money, even at $5 a ride.

All and all I was not impressed. And remember, I'm the guy who thought putting Alweg3 monorails all over L.A. would be cool...

*SIGH*

I was going to do a review of Stirling's In the Courts of the Crimson Kings – sequel to his The Sky People – but like my review of that first book, Dale beat me to it. So I'll just do a few short thoughts. In the Courts of the Crimson Kings

Anywho, it is a fun book. Again, it's an attempt to put the old pulps (mostly the Burroughsian ones), but his biology of Mars seems a lot more likely than his Venus did, at least to me. Mind you, there's still a alarming plethora of creatures that seem to specialize in eating humans. But unlike Venus, they at least don't seem to be stepping over each other's niches. And some of the are genegineered by the Martians anyway, so “natural” constraints don't really apply.

The ancient Martian culture works quite well, logicwise, as does their technology. And, on the whole, his Martians reasons for running around with swords make a lot more sense than Burroughs's (who's Barsoomians also had hand weapons capable of shooting hundreds of miles!). Stirling also brings a good feel for the sheer age and layers of civilization on Mars – both abandoned and still existing.

Still, while an excellent story, I had problems with the ending. Oh the whole return of the True Heir, and the Crown and the Dawn of a New Age on Mars thing worked and worked well. But then, out of the blue, the ÜberComputer(s) that's been running the Venus and Mars terraforming “experiments” goes “oh, nice job. Here's some really big 'stargates' to three whole other worlds that – since this is the last book in the series – we won't get to really see much if anything of. Enjoy!”

And then the book ends. It's a bizarre addition and – to my mind – feels tacked on4 as it doesn't really work with the rest of the book.

Both books in the series are still worth a read. And Dale's take on “rewrite a pulp so it's modern and actually works in the real world,” Mars Looks Different, is still better.

Been watching an anime lately called Code Geass. It's not bad, basically being a political drama about a rebellion with highschool antics and giant robots thrown in for good measure (and a touch of shojo and fanservice, just to broaden their audience). However, the whole series is set in an alternate history which – while at least as improbably as the giant robots in it – is quite interesting and original. Below's a description shamelessly swiped from Wikipedia (and even more shamelessly edited and trimmed down):
Code Geass is set in an alternate universe where the Holy Empire of Britannia, an international superpower, has conquered more than a third of the planet. The world is, for the most part, divided between it and two other superpowers: the Chinese Federation and the Euro Universe. Australia has remained independent. The three powers maintain a tentative balance for the first part of the series, though Japan remains a point of conflict between the Chinese Federation and the Britannian Empire.

Holy Empire of Britannia

The Holy Empire of Britannia is an imperial monarchy and the most prominent superpower within the world of Code Geass, controlling over onethird of the world. With the exception of parts of North Africa (which it is attempting to conquer), the Britannian Empire controls the entire western hemisphere, Japan, New Zealand, parts of the Middle East, and a portion of the Indochina Peninsula in the novels. Contrary to its name, it does not control the British Isles, since Napoleon managed to successfully conquer the region. Its homeland is based in North America. Territories conquered by the Britannian Empire are renamed with an "Area" number based on when they were conquered and the native people are referred to by their area number or just called "Numbers"; Japan, being the eleventh territory conquered (on August 10, 2010, a.t.b. roughly 1960, OTL the Holy Empire of Britannia overpowered Japanese forces and conquered the country with their new robotic weapons, the Knightmare Frames, in less than a month) , is Area 11 and its people are "Elevens", for example.

In the series, history diverged during Julius Caesar's invasion. A Celtic "superking" was elected and managed to successfully resist the invasion, beginning the Britannian imperial line. As a result, the empire retained absolute monarchy, suppressed the American colonies' rebellion in 1776, and eventually conquered the region following Napoleon's victory. The Britannian calendar era is "Ascension Throne Britannia" (a.t.b), known as the Imperial Calendar in the English dub. Its epoch is the date when the superking was elected, roughly fifty years earlier than the Gregorian calendar. Britannian society is elitist and closely resembles Social Darwinism. Society is arranged by ranks of nobility.

Chinese Federation

The Chinese Federation is an imperial monarchy that spans the Asian and Pacific regions, including Central, South, East and Southeast Asia with Sakhalin and the Korean Peninsula. Its population is the largest of the three major powers, but most live in poverty. Its political structure and organization appears to resemble the realworld Empire of China. The Emperor of the Federation holds absolute political power, but under Empress Tianzi, it is reduced to an effectively symbolic figurehead posting, "a symbol of the state and the unity of the people." As with the realworld Emperor of Japan, the individual who holds the title is regarded as a living divinity whose sovereignty is entirely ceremonial. The Vermillion Forbidden City is the seat of the Chinese Emperor and the government of the Federation — a large palace situated in the capital city of Luoyang. The governmental organization known as the "High Eunuchs" , advisers to the Empress, use her power for their own gain.

Euro Universe

The Euro Universe, or E.U., is a democratic union. It has long been in conflict with Britannia. It encompasses all of Europe (including the British Isles), Africa, and Russia. Unlike the other countries, focus on the E.U. is minimal. In the second season, Schneizel leads the Britannian forces against the E.U., successfully conquering almost half of their territory.

The E.U. apparently organizes their military into leftwing and rightwing camps, and their forces are drawn from National Guardstyle units from a member nation (i.e. the German National Guard, the Italian National Guard and the Dutch Engineering Corps).

Anywho, check it out. It drags a bit in spots when they start getting overly preachy or flashbacky (admittedly, a pretty standard anime problem, to my eyes), but it's quite good.

Now, on with the show!



Divergent Opinions - Comments on P.O.D. 51

Section One

Dale Cozort
Somebody else snuck into one of the buildings and stripped out all of the electrical wireing for the copper content.” A not uncommon occurance, that. Last month, in fact, power was off for a good chunk of Whittier (including the school) because someone(s) yanked all the copper ground wires out of a substation.

That didn't shut off the power immediately, of course, but when Edison discovered it – and realized that without the grounds if anything went wrong with the substation, it would explode – they kinda had to shut off the power to replace them.
re: Singing Tears, pt2: Yeah, the ending is...kinda disappointing. Mind you, you might be able to do something with that whole “hiding in a business suit” idea.
re: Era of Solar Energy, pt2: *GRIN* I like the solar powered marijuana...
re: Miscellaneous: Lot of interesting tidbits here.

As to the XCPV's, if they're really getting up to 3000 degrees, honestly, it would seem they were just made for some sort of solar-thermal cogeneration. Does the company have any thoughts on that? I mean, every little bit of efficiency helps – and they have to cool the darn things anyway...
re: Electric World: Interesting. Heck, I may "steal" bits of it to bolster my rather shaky TW foundations <g>.

Couple of things occur though. One is that electricity in this TL is more likely to be competing with gas lighting than kerosene. They're both lighting systems that require a fairly extensive infrastructure. Kerosene would remain the lighting of choice for rural areas and portable light sources, maybe not as long as on OTL, but for a fair bit of time.

If electricity cuts into gas's5 market big enough and fast enough, you might put a crimp in the advancement of chemistry. As I understand it, a lot of early "better lives through chemistry" products were the result of companies being desperate to find something to do with all the waste from coal-gas plants; aspirin, dyes, etc... Less of that, less incentive for big chemical industries. You might butterfly away the Haber–Bosch process which means if there's a WWI, Germany runs out of explosives. It also means chemical fertilizers are at best delayed, with all the winged insects that could cause.

Assuming electric competes successfully with gas (the battle might go on quite a bit longer in this ATL), you might affect some interesting things. On OTL, gas stoves really didn't start to hit it big until the 1880s. Obviously, such required a preexisting gas infrastructure. Electric stoves came in the 1890s, but didn't catch on (at first) due to the relative lack of their infrastructure. So on your TL here, it might very well be the other way around.

Or it might go into a BluRay/HD-DVD situation, with folks sitting around waiting for who "wins" and just sticking with wood/coal in the meantime.

You may just have eliminated the whole invention of the gas mantle...since by the time it came around on this TL, the electric/gas battle (at least, for lighting) may be more or less over. Coleman may well go to battery lanterns6 a lot sooner than on this TL.

Speaking of coal, coal-fired heat is probably going to stay widespread much longer on this ATL. You've put a crimp in the petroleum and gas industries, and electricity is going to be much more expensive for heating (just like on OTL), so coal is going to be the way to go. Ditto for producing that electricity. Ironically, we may have an "All Electric" timeline where the sort of killer smogs London used to have are a lot more common and widespread.

Again, speaking of coal, unless you're shoveling it into your steam engine cars (and tractors and such which is unlikely), they're probably using something like kerosene to fire their boilers. Oh, they could use alcohol, but if electricity is really catching on as a light source, even your smaller petroleum companies are going to start hunting around for other customers for their product (other major markets for them are lubrication and asphalt, of course) and, quite frankly, they can produce a cheaper, better fuel than the alcohol producers (even now, as all the boosters of ethanol are finding out...).

I'd like to think that battery technology would be higher on this ATL...but I suspect that it's contingent on way too many other factors (chemistry, physics, manufacturing, etc.) to be advanced much simply because they need better batteries sooner. You might shave a decade off development by the time the 21st century rolls around on this ATL, but honestly, there's always been a big need/market for better batteries on this world, so I don't think your ATL can (usefully) throw enough extra resources at the problem to speed things up more than a few years.
re: The Confederate Highwheeler Dragoons: I like it. Mind you, I'm not too sure how probable it is – but it's still cool.

I just would like to see some Matthew Brady pics of the whole affair...
re: Spain Joins the Axis, pt3: Still good. Honestly, though, I can't see this as anything other than a very temporary advantage for the Axis. And if it does induce a Sealion, then Germany's just made a warshortening mistake of nearly “Invade Russia” proportions.

German sealift capacity wasn't enough to supply a Sealion on OTL – with it spread out to the Canaries and back, it's even worse...and I don't think the Spanish can make it up.

But I'll wait and see where you're going with it...
re: Miscellaneous Thoughts: I'm surprised Sun Bears remain so unknown – you'd think that they'd be a PhD dissertation just waiting to happen.

As far as saving species, I've had an idea for a few years that might do it – though it requires a couple of orders of magnitude more computing power than we now have (plus a few other “modest” technical advances).

Basically, you build a virtual world, with the capability to translate genetic material7 into a virtual creature. A virtual creature that can then roam about its virtual world, unknowing that, well, it's a virtual world.

Think “Matrix” meets the San Diego Zoo...

This way, you can create – and preserve – a lot more genetic variety than in the “real” world. With proper programs, you could in fact take one recorded set of genes and introduce your own variations, thus making hundreds of now different individuals.

Need more space for your animals? Pick up a couple of new hard drives.

Then, assuming there ever is a sufficiently restored/preserved wild out in the “real” world, you can use the virtual animals to build real ones to repopulate it. Heck, you can send an entire copy of Earth's biome to another planet if need be.

And saving a species just means making sure you do regular backups.
ct: Robert Alley: “An early Orion is forced to abort to somewhere having mini-nukes in the hands of the locals would be a very bad thing.” Would be a good story...now all you have to do is figure out how an Orion lands normally, let alone in an emergency, because I've never understood that one!
ct: Me: I think that Great Britain would have to make more mistakes than it realistically could to get a “Successful Sealion.” Or Germany has to start planning it (while keeping any hint of those plans from leaking...which is impossible) a good decade before WWII.
re: Stuff from the Notebook Era: Interesting – and, yes, you have gotten better.
Tom Cron
Interesting articles.

I especially liked the one on “The Civil War without Trains” (big surprise there...<g>). Mind you, I'm not sure a South completely encircled can last all that much longer than it did OTL (which is required for the win). And even if it does, it's going to be in real bad economic shape when the war's finally over.

I liked the “Battleship” article too.
Robert Gill
ct: Freitag: re: The Arkansas War: “How do you conclude that Cherokee Oklahoma/Arkansas would serve as a refuge for slaves.” *Arkansas Territory is more of a confederation than a single monolithic state and it is divided into a number of different “tribes” so even though there's slavery in the Cherokee area (and even that's frowned upon by the more traditional Cherokee), it is not in all of the territory, nor does it preclude free blacks.

Or, as Wikipedia has it: “in Louisiana, Henry Crowell, a free black man and one of the officers of the Iron Battalion who won the Battle of New Orleans, offended the local Creole leadership by courting a Creole woman. Slavecatchers waylaid Crowell and castrated him. In revenge, the Iron Battalion mobilized and destroyed the homes of the Creole leadership, then smashed the Louisiana militia who came after them to suppress "servile rebellion". (This is referred to later as the "Algiers incident".) Shortly afterwards, Crowell and the Iron Battalion moved to Arkansas.

The easternmost chiefdom, Arkansas, is ruled by Patrick Driscoll, the "Laird". Arkansas has banned slavery, and has become a magnet for freedmen throughout the United States, who are forced to leave Northern states. Under the influence of Henry Clay and John C. Calhoun, states pass Freedmen Exclusion Acts, compelling free blacks to quit their territory.”
ct: Me: re: “Life After People: “You can use your imagination as to what caused humanity to disappear; it's irrelevant to the longterm fate of what's left behind” But that's just it – it isn't.

As I said, what happens next is dependent on what happened first. And how man checks out will have after effects. There are very few possibilities that only affect humans in a “you there, stop living, now!” way – and they're pretty much all ASB-powered.

A disease that kill all humans? Cool – but what are those humans doing as they die off (like deciding “If I'm going anyway, I'm going to bag me a panda!”)? How many other species does it jump to and what does it do to them?

War? Doable – but it'll probably take a lot of other species with it and there won't be those nice pristine cities laying around to decay dramatically.

A mass-movement that convinces everyone that Suicide is the Way – unlikely as heck (you have trouble getting more than three to agree on what restaurant to go to) and would such people even be keeping the pets (or zoo animals, for that matter) that later repopulate their abandoned cities?

Various environmental messes kill off man – but that'd kill off a lot more than him, and have the post-human recovery a lot longer and with a lot fewer species.

Life After People just waves it's hands and beams everyone off the planet one day, Mary Celeste like. And that's not realistic. Which means its “after” is, as I said, basically fantasy.

Still cool, though...

Helen Killer sounds interesting, in a bizarre sort of way. I'll have to dig it up.
Wesley Kawato
ct: Me: “He timed the radio message so the two American carriers would be sunk in the channel [during Yamamoto's third strike]” And the carriers are pulling into a port that's already been hit by two waves of fighters that day, why, exactly? And why would they both be entering at the same time, really close together? And why weren't their aircraft providing cover?

There's no way any captain would put his ship into that kinda situation, let alone two – especially since what they'd actually be doing (and were on OTL8) is looking for the Japanese forces!

And, hell yeah, America would “contest Japan's Coral Sea operation or the invasion of Midway.” With Pearl out as a (naval) base of operations it'd be harder – though I note that Hawaii has other harbors that could be used in a pinch such as this – and there's a good chance they'd get beat up worse than on OTL. But even assuming the Japanese take Midway, what happens then is not them being “tempted to invade Hawaii” but a long deadly battle between them and the U.S. as the U.S. attempts – and eventually succeeds – to retake the island. A battle that probably hurts the Japanese worse on this ATL than the OTL battles of the same period did (if only because their supply line is now four thousand miles long).

And no Pearl or not (and even you only have it out six months – so it'll be back in operation by the time of Midway...and with luck, by the time of the Battle of the Coral Sea), Midway is farther from Japan than it is from the United States. And in any contest between the two of shipping large amounts of men, materials and war machines over long distances, Japan loses every time.

And the Soviet Union, “rebuilding” Japan or no on this ATL, is not going to be using it to start a proxy war with the U.S – for exactly the same reason you have for Kennedy not nuking Japan in 19659 – because they know the U.S. has a lot of atom bombs.

And, no, it's not the same as OTL's supporting a rebel group or “Rightful Government” or whatever and funneling some money, weapons and “instructors” to them. This is having your proxy (no matter how much you protest they're doing it on their own) invade U.S. territory. And no way is the polite fiction that it's not really your proxy going to placate the U.S.

The Soviets are bright enough to realize that they'd be risking a nuclear war to win...the Philippines – and only then as their “proxies” winnings. No, they aren't going to do this.

In fact, if the Japanese even suggest it, the Soviets are going to threaten to pull all their economic support10 until they calm down.

And, BTW, I don't see how a post war Soviet involvement negates any of the things I said about the improbability/impossibility of a “surviving” Japanese Empire. That all – including their postwar decay into starving third-world-ness – stands.
Me
Unfortunately, it starts with them enlarging one little room, turning the men's bathroom into the new archive room, a janitor's closet into the new men's bathroom, and generally messing things up for a month or so.” Ah, if only it had ended up being that simple...

First of all, they're still doing stuff and it's already July so that “month or so” proved to be an amusingly inaccurate timeframe.

Second of all...they changed their minds halfway through, thus making a lot of stuff they did unnecessary and much of the rest just stupid.

After tearing up and rebuilding the janitor's closet and the women's restroom next11 to it – while tearing out the old men's bathroom – they decided that, hey, they weren't going to move the archives after all.

But what that means is that all the restroom changes were utterly pointless. Things could have stayed exactly as they were – and maintenance would even still have their closet.

Worse, it means that the “enlarging one little room” isn't going to happen – which puts the campus AV department in a room half the size of the one planned...which was too small even then. It also means that we have to go through that room if we want to reach the archives.

And, since the old men's bathroom has been torn out, yet the archives aren't going in there, it gives us a “spare” room that is pretty much useless for anything we might use it for. So to sum, they spent a lot of money and time to give us two bathrooms we already had, a useless room, and an AV room too small for what needs to go in there. IOW, Rio Hondo SOP...

*SIGH* At least the stuff across the hall (where the print shop will be) is going better.
ct: Robert Gill: re Lines in the Sand: “I might use them to realign TrolleyWorld's map of the MiddleEast.” Which of course I did...
Kurt Sidaway
ct: Tom Cron: “A less centralized yet still unified USA would be the result..[but a] balkanized North America comprising a number of independent states [is also a possible outcome]” And the most likely one in AH fiction where the Articles of Confederation stays in force. In fact, I can't think of a story/timeline where it doesn't end up that way (including, obviously, TrolleyWorld).

That may be a result of a balkanized North America making for more interesting stories (and thus getting selected for again and again), or it may be simply that very few people feel a U.S.-sized country is possible under even a modified Articles.
ct: Robert Gill: Actually just getting around to reading The Yiddish Policeman's Union...which is kinda surprising, really.
ct: Me: “We also have a three storey atrium with a glass roof, which became a three storey water feature last summer...” Typical. Pasadena City College's new library (when constructed) had a ton-O-problems with leakage all over its nice glassed in central court. And this was at Southern California rainfall levels!

And of course, our outside stairs on the current (old) building here are cleverly designed without any drainage at all, so that all rain that falls on them is channeled into the center of the stairs – and thus to the basement (where the drain doesn't work).

So I should probably be really worried that our new building is also being built with a nice skylighted atrium...

New Library Atrium
BTW, see my comments to “Me” above for more amusements in college construction.
ct: Robert: “Does your library also practice the 'hammer 'em home' method of shelving” Fortunately, no, with the exception of the Reserve Shelves12 behind the Circ Desk – and we're the only ones that have to deal with them.

Sod's Law clearly states that a book that has not been used...will be asked for exactly three days after it has been withdrawn.” That's happened a couple of times – but it's so swamped by the number of things teachers have their students ask for that we've never owned that we scarcely notice.

Our experience is that most instructors here don't actually know what to do with a library. Which is mildly depressing.

It reminds me of the bit from Yes Prime Minister...And the Sun's readers don't care who runs the country provided she has big tits” Hmmm, on the whole, I think I'll run with the Sun's readers then. Since all politicians are going to screw you one way or another, they should at least have the decency to have a nice rack...<g>


New Library Atrium
"Northern California" - One of the images used for my cover for POD 52



Subnormality

The Wager, from Subnormality
"The Wager" from the webcomic Subnormality