A serious holiday message, then your chance to
watch me stumble and fall....
Wish
for a Hard Candy Christmas
Fearless
and Foolhardy Predictions for 2002
Wish for a Hard Candy Christmas
The musical The Best Little Whorehosue in Texas has a sad song towards its end called "Hard
Candy Christmas," where the nice prostitutes of the Chicken Ranch are evicted from their fairly safe
house. In the song they ponder how they're having to survive their coming hard times. In all the
Christmases I've known - and I've had some long, lonely ones - no Christmas fits the "hard candy"
description better than this one.
I know several people who are spending this season filling out resumes and employment forms. It doesn't matter if it was Osama binLaden or George Bush who destroyed their jobs (both these guys attacked America). It's pointless at this time to fix blame. Right now, these people are hurting.
Even people who have jobs can be suffering. The world has new levels of fear. All those plastic Americna flags made by Chinese slave labor, flying from the windows of cars, aren't warding off the insecurity we all feel. That fear is pervasive. It can creep in through the cracks of a person's mental defenses and undermine his or her self-esteem.
There are a lot of suicides at Christmas, and there will probably be more of them this year. There are also a lot of self-destructive acts, like drunk driving, relapses into addiction, anger and child-beating. For some people, the very nature of the season is painful. I know of one person who is not formally religious who is insisting on no Christmas presents or cards, and who hates driving past houses with Christmas lights.
If you know someone who is going through hard times, don't simply wish them a merry Christmas and leave them alone this year. Try to do something fun with them. Take them to a movie, have a Christmas dinner with them. If they are sensitive to Christmas, just spend time with them doing something that does not involve Christmas. Pick up a videotape of something non-Christmas and spend an evening with them, relaxing and giggling. (Marx Brothers movies are particularly good for this.)
And if you're a person going through depression, consider doing something for another person this Christmas. Volunteer to serve Christmas dinner for poor people or shut-ins. Collect toys for children in trouble. It isn't a matter of seeing people in worse trouble than you, or anything selfish like that. It's just that when you unselfishly give to someone, you can suddenly be reminded how much you are really worth, and how generous you are in sharing.
Fearless and Foolhardy Predictions for 2002
When I first started doing this columnist stuff in the 80's, I made predictions about the TV industry for the coming year. Those predictions were printed and evaluated the next year. My success rate averaged about 45-50 percent, but that hasn't dissuaded me.
Making the predictions this year is even harder, since the events of September 11 have thrown so much dust and dirt into the air. Some have predicted that "cynicism is dead," that entertainment will become more romantic and less groundbreaking, that the career of Britney Spears died in the World Trade Center. I don't think so, but here is what I sense for the year 2002.
Ground Rules for Predictions
There are ten predictions. Each prediction will be scored from 0 to 10 points, with 0 being a complete miss and 10 being accurate. The accuracy is based only on what I predict will happen. If I say something might happen, that doesn't come into the equasion. These predictions must come true by the last week of December 2002.
There will be one Extra Credit question. Only if I achieve 50 points (50 percent of the total) from the other ten predictions will the Extra Credit apply; otherwise, it counts for nothing.
my other ten predictions score at least fifty percent (fifty points) will the Extra Credit apply. If the first ten don't make fifty percent, the Extra Credit doesn't count.
The predictions will be scored and (hopefully) posted in the last week of December 2002, and my next set of predictions will be posted in January 2003 at the latest. (I'll try to get them out the same week that I print the results of these predictions.) Understand the ground rules? Okay, here goes...
The Predictions
1. No new "reality" shows will be successful on network TV. By "reality" I mean shows that
put people in psychologically uncomfortable environments like Big Brother or The Mole. Shows that
feature "real" reality that aren't social or sexual rat cages, such as BattleBots or Junkyard Wars, will
continue. (This does not count something already in the pipeline, like ABC's The Runner which was
announced for 2001.)
2. A prime time series on one of the five networks will star a singer from an ethnic
background. This person will have no known acting experience, but will be known for his or her music.
By ethnic I'm thinking nonwhite - possibly black or Hispanic, but nonwhite and non-mainstream. I don't
know whether the person will be as successful as Brandy or Will Smith, but they will receive major
network promotion.
3. The media merger frenzy will bring calls from Congress to investigate mergers. Whether
or not government action will take place, or hearings will be called, several Congressmen will complain
about too great a concentration of power. In the line of the Microsoft monopoly hearings, the target will
be organizations like AOL Time Warner, Disney or News Corporation.
4. Faced with declining viewership, one of the five broadcast networks will push the
bounds of visual candor. This might be female breasts or buttocks, male nudity, or somehing similar. It
will cause controversy - but it will get ratings. It will go further than ABC's notorious Victoria's Secret
special.
5. An original video will get wide distribution by people copying Video CD's (VCD's). The
original videos like South Park: The Spirit of Christmas, and the Star Wars items Troops and The
Phantom Edit are on the internet. But most people don't have the cable modems or DSL lines to get
these huge files. However, lots of people have CD writers, which can copy VCD's easily. VCD movies,
popular in Asia and Australia, have about the same quality as VHS tapes. People will "bicycle" an
original film by copying VCD disks and giving them to friends.
6. One of the five commercial networks will introduce a serious superhero series in prime
time. This results from the success of Harry Potter and the coming Spider-Man movie - and the
admiration of police and fire departments in the aftermath of September 11. This does not count the
current Smallville series or The Tick. The superhero show will be identified by three items: the hero will
wear a costume, the character will have a heroic attitude, and the show will not mock heroics but take
them seriously.
7. One of the commercial TV networks will run a music variety series. This will be similar to
the old Solid Gold series, where music stars lip-sync their hits before an audience. Its host might be a
singer or comedian (like Denny Terio or Rick Dees were on Solid Gold). The "Concert for America"
will be the inspiration for this - not so much the stinky Michael Jackson "celebration" of 2001.
8. The television networks will support a bill to eliminate the current requirement to
broadcast a certain amount of children's programming per week. The networks don't like doing
shows for kids if they aren't required to, since they can't fill the shows with ads and censorship of kid
programming is troublesome. Whether the bill is passed or not, they will heavily promote the idea.
9. Political ads for the 2002 mid-term elections will be nastier than ever, but other ads will
protest the meanness. Some politicians (maybe more Democrats than Republicans) will insist on no
PAC money, and will protest the "big money lies" of their opponents. Unlike most recent political
campaigns, which try to scare or frighten away voters, these ads will try to encourage voting.
10. A major interruption of electronic communication will be caused, not by teenage
pranksters, but by protestors in the name of some "holy cause." It might be foreign or domestic
terrorists, advocating the killing of Jews, abortion doctors or blacks. It might be simple interruption of
service, like with the HBO blackout by "Captain Midnight" a decade ago, or deliberately destructive
viruses introduced into the Internet. But it will be in the name of some cause, pushed by a nut who thinks
people will follow if he yells loud enough.
Extra Credit: Disney will have a major change of personnel publicized nationally. This is
not like the firings and cutbacks of the regular personnel. It will be major and publicized. It might be the
resignation of chairman Michael Eisner, or the addition of new power players as department heads. But
it will be seen as a new direction to bring Disney out of its creative and financial decline - whether it
really works or not.
Original material Copyright (C) Thomas E. Reed. Publication in any media or use by another web site is expressly prohibited without written permission of Thomas E. Reed. Opinions are those of the writer and correspondents, and do not reflect the views of
TOON Magazine or any other entity.
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