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Here is your annual chance to lambaste me for my predictions for 2002. As you may recall, each
prediction is scored from 0 to 10, based on how closely it came to pass. If the total score is above
50 percent, I get to count the bonus prediction. Here's how well my crystal ball and my chrome
dome functioned:
The Predictions
1. No new "reality" shows will be successful on network TV. By "reality" I mean shows that put
people in psychologically uncomfortable environments like Big Brother or The Mole. Shows that
feature "real" reality that aren't social or sexual rat cages, such as BattleBots or Junkyard Wars,
will continue. (This does not count something already in the pipeline, like ABC's The Runner
which was announced for 2001.)
Score: 10. The "reality" shows like Shipmates, ElimiDate and the like are not
setting the world on fire. The Bachelor, the only success for ABC in
a dismal season, was already
running when I made the prediction,
so it isn't a "new"
reality show. And the one good effect of the post-September 11 paranoia was the
elimination of The Runner, a live-action version of Stephen King's The Running Man which
could have brought real-world death to the "reality" genre.
2. A prime time series on one of the five networks will star a singer from an ethnic background.
This person will have no known acting experience, but will be known for his or her music. By
ethnic I'm thinking nonwhite - possibly black or Hispanic, but nonwhite and non-mainstream. I
don't know whether the person will be as successful as Brandy or Will Smith, but they will
receive major network promotion.
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It's "G
Lo" and his
TV family. Modestly
funny, very ethnic,
and also very much
alone.
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Score: 5, but only earned due to two technicalities. The police detective on WB's unfortunately
cancelled Birds of Prey was Shemar Moore, who remains the host of the ancient black music
show Soul Train. He isn't a singer, a musician, an actor, or anything beyond good-looking, but
he is a kind of DJ. The Hispanic comedian George Lopez also has a sitcom, and he squeaks by
because of his show's promo where he, "G. Lo," was mistaken for the singer "J. Lo." The
exclusion of ethnic folk from broadcast TV is surprising and depressing, since commercial TV
needs all the audience it can get.
3. The media merger frenzy will bring calls from Congress to investigate mergers. Whether or
not government action will take place, or hearings will be called, several Congressmen will
complain about too great a concentration of power. In the line of the Microsoft monopoly
hearings, the target will be organizations like AOL Time Warner, Disney or News Corporation.
Score: 0. I was hoping the public would recognize how bad this was - and the problems of the
mega-mergered AOL Time Warner and Disney should be a lesson to even those morons with
MBA's - but it hasn't sunk in yet. Here in Central Florida, a feud between the Viacom-owned
Sunshine Network and Time Warner Cable is keeping cable viewers from seeing Florida sports
teams, including the Orlando Magic NBA team. This corporate "hissy-fit" is enraging people, but
the public doesn't see it's the moronic "big is best" philosophy of business that's at fault.
4. Faced with declining viewership, one of the five broadcast networks will push the bounds of
visual candor. This might be female breasts or buttocks, male nudity, or somehing similar. It will
cause controversy - but it will get ratings. It will go further than ABC's notorious Victoria's
Secret special.
Score: 0. I killed myself with "visual"candor. If it had been simply "censorable things," I could
have scored with the use of the word "bullshit" on NYPD Blue. (Although some say that CBS's
E.R. was first in the use of that useful word.) But hold your breath. The networks are in serious
viewership trouble. They may decide to program Girls Gone Wild: The Series any day now. It'd
be better than that crappy Bachelor thing anyway.
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Before this "official"
DVD came out, bootleg
VCD's and videotapes
were all over the
dealer tables at
conventions.
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5. An original video will get wide distribution by people copying Video CD's (VCD's). The
original videos like South Park: The Spirit of Christmas, and the Star Wars items Troops and The
Phantom Edit are on the internet. But most people don't have the cable modems or DSL lines to
get these huge files. However, lots of people have CD writers, which can copy VCD's easily.
VCD movies, popular in Asia and Australia, have about the same quality as VHS tapes. People
will "bicycle" an original film by copying VCD disks and giving them to friends.
Score: 7. At cons, I saw VCD's of the oddly-animated Thumb Wars and Thumbtanic, as well as
other items.This prediction was slightly mis-timed, because DVD writers are suddenly
everywhere. They can't write "double layer" DVD's like the commercially available disks, but
they can fit a lot of video on a disk and they look great. The price of DVD burners has hit $300
and is going down, and the DVD-R disks are approaching $1 each. Pre-video releases of Spider-Man on DVD (a poor quality version shot in a movie theatre) were on sale months before the
official release.
6. One of the five commercial networks will introduce a serious superhero series in prime time.
This results from the success of Harry Potter and the coming Spider-Man movie - and the
admiration of police and fire departments in the aftermath of September 11. This does not count
the current Smallville series or The Tick. The superhero show will be identified by three items:
the hero will wear a costume, the character will have a heroic attitude, and the show will not
mock heroics but take them seriously.
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Some fans are
trying to revive
Birds of Prey,
and I wish them
luck, but WB and
Warner Brothers will
take a lot of persuasion.
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Score: 10. Three words: Birds of Prey. It is now cancelled, but it was intensely popular in the
comic community. It took heroics as seriously as DC's Batman comics, which is very serious
indeed. Although not "costumes" in the four-color comic book sense, the "clubbing"outfits worn
by Huntress were as impressive as any cape-and-tights outfit. It now appears that the show wasn't
given a fair shake because people inside AOL Time Warner were hostile to it. Internal politics
inside the megacorps are killing more good ideas than bad ratings ever did.
7. One of the commercial TV networks will run a music variety series. This will be similar to the
old Solid Gold series, where music stars lip-sync their hits before an audience. Its host might be a
singer or comedian (like Denny Terio or Rick Dees were on Solid Gold). The "Concert for
America" will be the inspiration for this - not so much the stinky Michael Jackson "celebration"
of 2001.
Score: 2. There wasn't music in it - much of it, anyway. However, in September, Fox put on
Cedric the Entertainer Presents, which is close enough to a variety show to qualify. It isn't all
that funny; it's like the worst episodes of In Living Color running back-to-back - but it's close to
a variety show.
8. The television networks will support a bill to eliminate the current requirement to broadcast a
certain amount of children's programming per week. The networks don't like doing shows for
kids if they aren't required to, since they can't fill the shows with ads and censorship of kid
programming is troublesome. Whether the bill is passed or not, they will heavily promote the
idea.
Score: 3. The push is out there, and it's a position promoted within broadcasting. It hasn't gotten
into Congress, which has "bigger" things on its mind, but it's out there. The broadcast networks
are still dumping kids programming like crazy or moving it to hours when kids aren't up. Fox
Kids dumped their entire lineup.
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"Governor
Duuuh" Bush
gives drug users
harsh, long jail
terms...unless it's
his daughter Noelle.
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9. Political ads for the 2002 mid-term elections will be nastier than ever, but other ads will
protest the meanness. Some politicians (maybe more Democrats than Republicans) will insist on
no PAC money, and will protest the "big money lies" of their opponents. Unlike most recent
political campaigns, which try to scare or frighten away voters, these ads will try to encourage
voting.
Score: 10. The ads were nastier than ever. And there were some cries of "big money." I never
claimed anything about the efficiency of the campaigns, where the Democrats again turned
cowardly. In my backyard, Jeb Bush (a.k.a. "Governor Duuuuh") kept his job because his
Democratic rival, Bill McBride, refused to attack Bush's many failings. He raised the spectre of
Bush's expensive ads, but didn't drive the point home.
10. A major interruption of electronic communication will be caused, not by teenage pranksters,
but by protestors in the name of some "holy cause." It might be foreign or domestic terrorists,
advocating the killing of Jews, abortion doctors or blacks. It might be simple interruption of
service, like with the HBO blackout by "Captain Midnight" a decade ago, or deliberately
destructive viruses introduced into the Internet. But it will be in the name of some cause, pushed
by a nut who thinks people will follow if he yells loud enough.
Score: 5. It happened. The main servers of InterNIC, the people who provide the easy-to-remember web page names (like http://www.off-model.com ) had half of their servers go down
due to an electronic attack. InterNIC has been mismanaging domain names for a long time, and
it's not hard to see this concerted attack as an attack on their policies.
The total of official questions is 52. This is just enough to allow the Extra Credit question.
Extra Credit: Disney will have a major change of personnel publicized nationally. This is not like
the firings and cutbacks of the regular personnel. It will be major and publicized. It might be the
resignation of chairman Michael Eisner, or the addition of new power players as department
heads. But it will be seen as a new direction to bring Disney out of its creative and financial
decline - whether it really works or not.
Score: 5. Disney's lost its head of animation. Eisner is now under the gun to make the ABC
Network and the theme parks profitable again, and has so far failed. Disney now has a group of
board members making certain decisions, which sounds like a prelude for replacing Eisner. The
failure of Treasure Planet may have sealed his fate.
Total score for 2002: 57. This is perhaps the best percentage I've received in years. And of
course, I will be sticking my neck out again. As a reminder of the ground rules, the critical factor
is what I say "will" happen, not what "might" happen. And unless 1 through 10 total at least 50
points, the Extra Credit question does not count.
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Michael Eisner
may still have his
job when Pixar ends
its exclusive contract
with Disney.
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1) Pixar, who produced Disney's recent successful films, will stop being exclusive to Disney.
Pixar's executives let the public know they didn't like how Disney was treating them, and it was
well known that Disney's only contribution to Toy Story and Monsters, Inc. was getting some
stars to do the voices. Pixar may break with Disney completely, or it may still work with them,
but Pixar will do projects outside of The Mouse. Disney's prestige will sink as a result.
2) A violent incident will occur on a talk, news or pundit show. It will be as devastating as the
incident on the drastically shrunk Jenny Jones Show, where a gay man was murdered by a
homophobe who was ambushed by Jones. The show in question might be "serious" discussion
like Meet the Press, or as ephemeral as The View. The show with the incident may be broadcast
or kept off the air. It may be caused by an abusive show or just happen. But it will cause injury or
death, and will raise questions about the emotions stirred by these shows.
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Jimmy Kimmel,
enjoying a beer
before his ABC talk
show bombs.
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3) ABC's Late Night with Jimmy Kimmel will fail. ABC has a tragic history with variety and
talk shows. Its only honest success since the 1960's was Politically Incorrrect with Bill Maher,
and ABC's timidity and Maher's egotism killed that. Kimmel is kind of funny, but his
cynicism and smugness will alienate
guests. He also has heavy baggage,
making a name for himself as
a sexist on Comedy Central's
The Man Show. I give Kimmel six months,
maximum. The show will probably be replaced (at least temporarily) by the placeholder news
feature show that preceeded it, ABC News's Up Close.
4) A smart action/adventure film will do better than the dumb films of the
Schwartzenegger/Stallone/Willis variety. I'm thinking of films in the style of director M. Night
Shmalian (Unbreakable, Signs) or The Matrix from the Warshowski brothers. The marked
difference between these and the musclebound crowd is visual and emotional style, intelligent
and sensitive scripts, and strong characterization. They'll show up the shallowness of waving the
flag and saying stupid bon mots as you're killing someone.
5) Some new scandal will make another aspect of sex or adult behavior public. The
Clinton/Lewinsky affair finally brought the words "penis" and "fellatio" to public conversation.
The Catholic Church scandals have brought the word "pedophilia" out of the closet, or maybe the
confessional. This new scandal might involve any sexual variant: lesbianism, sadism,
masochism, scatology. But it will be discussed publicly - by which I mean it will be fodder for
jokes on the late-night shows, and talked about around the "water cooler" - and the schoolyard.
6) Cartoon Network or another cable or broadcast network will attempt to present adult-style animated shows earlier in the evening. This is in response to CN's Adult Swim, which
will run weeknights in 2003. The shows will have "adult language" and "sexual situations" as
described in the Adult Swim disclaimers, but they will run earlier, in prime-time, from 8 PM to 11
PM EST. This is not counting The National Network's Stripperella and new Ren and
Stimpy episodes, which are still in Adult Swim time.
7) Shows whose only virtues are special effects will fail. There will be a few shows like the
recently cancelled Firefly and Dinotopia, full of visual flash and noise, but lacking in traditional
standards like writing, character, plot and story, and they will fail. This might even be a new
iteration of the Star Trek franchise, Paramount's plow horse which they've nearly beaten to
death. Now that computer effects are cheap, they can't compensate for a lousy story.
8) A TV show will pull off elaborate, bizarre public events. No broadcast network will dare
to imitate the stupid, destructive stunts of MTV's Jackass. Shows like The Jamie Kennedy
Xperiment are almost as bad. However, a producer will see that show, and the "reality" shows
like Battlebots and Junkyard Wars, and combine them. Not the small-scale practical jokes of
Bloopers and Practical Jokes, but something larger, publicly accessible and absolutely stupid in
concept. For example, making a twelve-foot-diameter giant tossed salad in the middle of a food
court, using TV wrestlers to do the tossing - or selling ice cream outdoors in the middle of a
Canadian winter.
9) A national radio host will suffer a devastating incident that will end his or her career.
Who it is, I'm not sure; it could be Dr. Laura Schlesinger, Howard Stern, Rush Limbaugh or one
of those guys. It might be physical injury, scandal or something worse. But it will make that host
leave the air, to a surprising lack of sympathy.
10) Harry Knowles's Ain't It Cool News will lose most of its cachet. The site has had no real
revelations for a long time. Its independence is heavily questioned because of its many pop-up
ads for reprehensible films. Its "talkback" sections are full of fanboy whining, insults, ego and
stupidity. Knowles will still be around, but on the small scale of Matt Drudge, with whom he
once shared the reputation of "gonzo Internet journalist." The reason is Knowles's limited
standards of integrity, and the lack of same among his regular contributors.
Extra Credit: Computer animation will become a popular political tool. Although Flash
animation isn't commercially viable (Icebox.com is dead and buried), the anti-Republican ads
called the "?" campaign found on http://www.blah3.com have garnered great interest already.
Also see the South Park-style "American history lesson" from Michael Moore's movie Bowling
for Columbine. More of this animation will appear on the Internet and in broadcast commercials,
whipped up quickly in response to current events. The right wing Libertarians and Republicans
will try animation - in the crude style of Rush Limbaugh's old TV show - but they lack the wit
and intelligence to do so. The sharpest and most effective ads will be from the left - Democrats
gearing up for 2004, as well as Greens and other radicals. A cynical ethnic version, a la the comic
strip The Boondocks, is not impossible either.
That's it...see how I do in January 2004!
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