I was forwarded an email warning of the dangers of Hurricane Rita to the Austin area. Now, I live 100 miles north of Austin, but I have a friend who lives in Austin and she was the one who sent me the email. Here it is:

"The Austin/San Antonio weather service predicts tropical storm force winds (39-71 mph) in the Austin area for several hours on Saturday. That will be enough to create some major power outages. Families should be prepared with plenty of batteries, candles, water,etc.

The computer guidance models have shifted westward and now point to a landfall further south on the Texas coastline, closer to Corpus. Such a shift, should it actually happen, would put Austin in the bullseye once the storm moves inland and our weather would be much worse. For example ... if the storm were to be a Category 3 at landfall and move at the speed the National Hurricane Center predicts, with that new track ... then Austin would experience actual hurricane conditions for several hours on Saturday as the storm moved northwestward and then north past us.

FYI, here is a snippet from this morning's weather discussion by a guy named Larry Cosgrove, a professional meteorologist who does national weather and he is usually pretty good:

"I suspect that Rita will grow and strengthen until landfall. There is still a fair amount of variety among the various computer guidance
schemes concerning the final destination on Rita. The window seems to be between Beaumont TX on the right and Matamoras Mexico to the left. I favor a Corpus Christi strike, mostly because that city is about the arithmetic mean location when averaging the various numerical models. A Freeport to Galveston target would of course produce widespread devastation involving the Houston TX metro area, a temporary home to many survivors of Hurricane Katrina. As it is, I think that Rita will prove to be devastating for the Lone Star State. As the subtropical high progresses into the Carolinas and enables a more northward re-curvature after the hurricane comes inland (and yes, this monster could easily reach Category 4 or 5 status on Friday prior to the hit), the Interstate 35 corridor from San Antonio TX to Ardmore OK will get hammered by heavy rainfall and tornadoes."

Now, if I was the symathetic and nurturing type, I would have just reassured her that everything will be okay and she might want to take some preventive steps just to make herself feel better. But after the circle-jerk that was the preparation and response to Hurricane Katrina, I just couldn't be sympathetic. First of all, the difference between Hurricane Katrina, which victimized predominantly poor Black New Orleanians, and Hurrican Rita, which appears to be targeting the Oil Industry of the Texas Gulf Coast, is substantial. George W. Bush is going to take care of his oil industry buds. It's not only in his own best interest, but it is also the source of his family fortunes. Duh.

No, what I said was this:

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I thought this was one of those jokes and I kept reading for the punchline until I realized that apparently this was written by someone who was serious. I guess they got it from Chicken Little or Henny Penny originally and just forwarded it on.

Austin is almost 200 miles from the Gulf coast AT ITS CLOSEST POINT. Two hundred miles of landfall pretty much takes the wind out of a hurricane (no pun intended). That's not to say Bad Weather won't find it's way that far inland, but "hurricane conditions?"

When I think "hurricane conditions," I generally think of high winds pushing water in from some coastal region. Austin is 584 feet above sea level, and almost 200 miles from the nearest coast. (It's OVER 200 miles from Corpus Christi, by the way.) It would take an
awfully lot of water to rise 584 feet across a 200 mile stretch of land. A storm surge up a couple of rivers might cause some minor flooding--around the rivers.

I also think it's awfully funny that anyone would be foolish enough to predict that Austin would be "in the bullseye" of any storm system blowing in from the Gulf of Mexico. Like there's a Hurricane Highway that they all follow once they hit land? It's what all the more
serious hurricanes always do. They blow into Corpus and get on the I-37 up to San Antonio, then take the loop north and exit onto I-35 and run straight up to Austin. All the better weather forecasters know that.

This IS a joke, right? It's just so subtle I'm not getting it? Surely no one honestly thinks Austin is in danger of being subjected to the force of a hurricane.

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Yes, I know that the clockwise rotation of a hurricane will tend to make it curve north as it proceeds westward and that the weather system generally affects a hundred miles out from its center. That means almost ANY severe weather system to strike the Texas Gulf coast will pretty much follow the I-35 corridor north. This is not news. But it won't be a HURRICANE when takes the 6th Street exit into Austin.