Stocks above their 50-day Moving Average
This chart shows the number of Nasdaq stocks that are above their
50-day moving averages. Click here to get the latest.
The horizontal lines at 25 and 70 are arbitrary, and tend to indicate
when a move is nearing an end. The Nasdaq composite index ($COMPQ) is
shown below on a percentage scale for correlation.
Bullish Percent Index
The Bullish Percent Index ($BPSPX) for the S&P 500 is shown in
red together with the S&P 500 Index ($SPX).
[NC] A 7-day EMA has been added where crossovers seem to
good indication of a short-term trend change as shown with the S&P
500 superimposed on the BPI chart.
Sector Bullish Percent
[NC] Looking at the BPI of sectors is a good way to get a feel
for how they are performing. Click here to see charts for ten S&P market sectors.
[NC] The Volatility Index (VIX)
shows the large-cap market's expectation of 30-day volatility. The
index is based on prices of S&P 500 options that investors tend to
rush to when they are fearful of stock declines. The VIX is a widely
used measure of market risk and is often referred to as the "investor
fear gauge". When the fear is highest, the market is likely to
bottom and start up as all those in fear would have sold. There is
greater detail at Investopedia.com.
[NC] Below is a one-year plot of the VIX with the S&P 500 on a percentage scale at the bottom. Note the large one-year percent gain in the S&P 500. In the middle is the RSI of the VIX. When the RSI hits the blue 60 line there is danger of a decline (starts with a red vertical pole). When the RSI hits 45, green pole, the probability of making money in the market can be much better. All indicators lag the market, and are not good in a choppy market. A green pole will not be placed if the VIX is above 20, and a buy alert will be canceled if the VIX goes above 20. Note also that low points in the market usually occur when the VIX peaks.
[NC] A VIX Buy Alert
occurred on Thursday 1/10 when the RSI of the VIX went below 45. The VIX also went below 20 that day. The
view is that it
is dangerous to be in the market when the VIX is above
Jill Mislinski states, "there are too few peak/trough episodes in this overlay series to take the latest credit balance data as a leading indicator of a major selloff in U.S. equities. This has been an interesting indicator to watch and will certainly continue to bear close watching in the months ahead."