Health of the Market
(4/21/2018)
The charts will be updated by every Saturday. When no change to text, [NC] will be used. Click for favorite investment websites or to go to the Charlottesville Senior Center Investors' Forum. Note: To get tabs to other pages, Javascript (not Java) must be enabled for this site.
[NC] The year 2017 was quite spectacular. The Dow
Jones Industrial index was up 25%. The Nasdaq was even better at
+28%. The S&P 500 gained 19%. The U.S. dollar fell 7.5%, the
biggest annual drop since 2007. The new year had a fantastic January.
The theory goes that the move in January predicts the move for the entire
year.
The
indicators for the longer term equity market
show mixed signals within a bull
cycle (check the Observations tab). The
S&P 500 closed -7.06% below the record close in January; -0.95%
year-to-date. 58.0% of S&P 500 stocks were above their
200-day exponential moving averages, up from 57.4% the
week before. 48.4% of these stocks are above their 50-day EMAs, up
from 47.5% the week before.
A Health Buy Alert occurred on
Friday 4/13. This is based on small-cap action.
A VIX Buy Alert, based on large-cap
action, occurred on Friday 4/13 also. However, the insiders were quite bearish (data from last
Wednesday).
Typically
earnings drive the stock market. Now the market and stock movements are
almost entirely tied to the whim of the White House, says Michael
O'Rourke, chief market startegist at Jones-Trading -- Barron's
4/23/2018.
[NC] A measure to determine if the
price is too high relative to the underlying earnings is the Shiller
price to earning ratio. This is the current price divided by the 10-year
average of "real" (inflation-adjusted) earnings. This ratio
corresponds quite well to the peaks of price as shown by charts on this site. The third revision of
third quarter GDP came in at 3.16%. The third estimate for the forth
quarter is 2.9%.
The market in the
typical second half of April
is not good. The charts for the second year of the presidential
cycle compared to all years show the second presidential year has had
big swings with a peak in mid-April. We are just about to leave the Power
Zone, the favorable time of the year. Access more data on the best six months here. A Bear Equity
Cycle has likely started with an S&P 500 drop
below its 200-day SMA to confirm. The long-term BullHeal System went to
a buy on
9/27/2017. The equity market tends to move on margin
debt. See chart here.
[NC] Since
December of 2016, the dollar ($USD) has decreased in value with respect to
a basket of other currencies as long-term interest rates have gone down.
Now the rates are going up, perhaps due to the concern about the
ballooning federal debt. Funding the debt will increase the supply of
Treasury notes. The dollar continues down as money flows to investments
in the increasing strength of the economies in Europe and Asia.
The 10-year Treasury yield ($TNX /10) and the inflation index is also
shown in this 5-year chart with weekly closing prices.
[NC] But the most important
reason we will see higher yields is simple supply and demand. The US
will need to borrow $400B more in 2018 then it did in 2017 through the
sale of more Treasuries. At the same time, the Fed will curtail its
reinvestment in Treasuries and Mortgage Bonds by an increasing and
significant amount this year. They will buy $252B less this year in
Treasuries, at the same time that $400B more supply will be issued.
That's about $650B that will need to be absorbed by the open
market. --- Barry Habib
2/27/2018
[NC] The driving force between
currencies is the relationship between global interest rates. The 10-Year
Treasury yield remains higher than other developed-country yields.
One of the side-effects of a weak dollar is that it tends to drive global
funds into foreign markets which has been the case recently. The falling
dollar, however, has had positive influences on the U.S. market as well,
especially large cap multinationals that derive nearly half of their
revenues from foreign markets.
[NC] The international bond
market is provided
by the WSJ. See the Income tab for a chart of U.S. Treasury
yields.
[NC] The stock markets in other
countries are quite well correlated to the U.S. market. To
participate in these markets, the U.S. dollar can be hedged out, however,
this has not been productive as the dollar has been dropping. Click
to check out the country hedged ETFs and the un-hedged ETFs.
[NC] Sector
investing via exchange traded funds (ETFs) is popular. The
traders rotate between sectors. To see how some popular sector
ETFs are doing, click here for the Candle Glance.
[NC] The
theory is that if the small-cap stocks do better than
the large-caps, it indicates that the traders are willing to take on
more risk and the market will go up. That does not seem to be the case
recently. The chart shows the relative strength of the Russell 2000
IWM with respect to the S&P 500 SPY. The 20/40-day EMA
crossovers are marked by a pole. 
The S&P 500 large-cap index was very strong in the first weeks
of 2018 and closed at a record high January 26. Then there was the
drop that now leaves index 7.1% below the record close. The
index is 2.5% above its 200-day moving average, which if it
breaks down from the MA, a big drop could happen as traders watch this
average. The shaded area is the Bollinger Band. A drop below the
band, as we have had, indicates a very oversold market -- and it
typically corrects up from there, which it did last time. Now it is coming down from the top of the Bollinger Band.
The Russell 2000 small-cap index was quite strong (+9.4%), but hit resistance established by the January high. It has been stronger than the large-cap S&P 500 index. It is now coming down from the top of the Bollinger Band. Friday it was 4.4% above its 200-day SMA.
The technology-heavy Nasdaq composite index broke the resistance of the January high, and had corrected -- volatility is in charge. It is 4.9% above its 200-day MA. Friday 49.7% of Nasdaq stocks were below their 50-day moving averages (an improvement from 52.5% last Friday) as shown in the chart on the Status page.
[NC] The S&P 500 is
shown with its Bollinger Bands below. When the price goes above
or near the upper Bollinger Band a downswing in price
is likely as the market is overbought. Similarly, when the
price goes below the lower band, an upswing is
likely.
[NC] Also shown is the 21-day Money
Flow Index. This is an oscillator that uses both price and volume to
measure buying and selling pressure. It is similar to a
volume-weighted version of RSI. A green pole is marked when the MFI moves
above 50 indicating a good time to buy. If the MFI hits
the oversold level at 20 (green dashed pole), it might be
a better time to buy. A red dashed pole when
the MFI comes down from around 80 might be good time
to lock in some profit. A solid red pole when MFI
goes below 50 indicates selling might protect from a
downswing.
[NC] Below is the Russell 2000 small-cap index that tends to lead the overall market both up and down -- as the small-cap stocks are generally more risky than large cap stocks. This index is shown with high-low-close bars. It's 50 and 200-day simple moving averages are included. The 200-day moving average often acts as support or resistance to price movement as many traders watch it.
[NC] The Health Alert is based on the momentum of the small-cap Russell 2000 index, the Nasdaq breadth data, and the Nasdaq 52-week new highs and new lows. The thresholds are described below. The green buy and red sell 'alert' poles on the chart show when these alerts have occurred.
[NC] A Health Buy Alert occurred on Friday 4/13. This buy alert is shown by the green pole. The small cap stock index is used here as small-caps have tended to lead the market both down and up -- but no so much lately!
[NC] The second pane is the Relative Strength Indicator (RSI) for the Russell index, a measure of momentum of the market. This is the relative strength of the Russell 2000 itself -- it's not relative to any other index. Above 50 shows positive momentum over the last 21 days. The latest plot can be seen by clicking here. The green arrows indicate a positive change in momentum as the RSI crosses above 50; red arrows indicate downward momentum when the RSI crosses 49. The threshold of 49 is used to give a more definite indication of the start of a down-swing.
[NC] The third pane is the Nasdaq McClellan Summation Index,
$NASI, (red) and it's 5-day exponential MA (blue). This is a running
sum of the difference of two moving averages of the number of
advancing issues minus the number of declining
issues. A 19-day and a 39-day exponential moving average (EMA)
are used. This shows whether a market move is broad based. As the trend
changes, the red index will cross the blue EMA and an arrow will
be drawn. This indicator must be consistent with the RSI before an
alert pole is drawn on the price chart. When this index is below the 5-day EMA, and a 'sell alert'
has not occurred, this is a warning not to purchase new positions,
but to HOLD those that were bought earlier on the 'buy alert'.
[NC] Dr. Alexander
Elder in his book Trading for a
Living says that the 52-week New Highs minus
New Lows Index is "probably the best leading indicator of
the stock market". This display for the Nasdaq market shows the this index in
pink. The 3-day MA of the NH-NL index is shown in blue. A green arrow is
placed if the 3-day MA of the NH-NL index goes positive for three
consecutive days, or a red arrow is placed if the MA goes negative for
three consecutive days. To see a summation of the NH-NL numbers, click
here. When a green buy arrow is put on the price chart,
it indicates a Health 'buy alert', if the other indicators
concur. The red sell arrows here are not used in the
determination to place a sell pole on the price chart, due to the
lag.
[NC] The
Health Alert acts as a confirmation
and does not do well as a stand-alone signal for buying and selling.
After a long trend, it works well to signal the end of the
trend.
Long-Term Overview
[NC]
This chart gives an overview of the situation. The market had done well
since the termination of the QE3 Fed bond buying, until the last half
of 2015. The 10-year Treasury rates moved down even when the
Fed raised the over-night Federal Funds Rate in December 2015. There
have been five 1/4 point rate increases, the
last three in March, June and December of 2017. Now there
is an expectation of three more in 2018. See more here. A chart of various Treasurys yields
since 1962 are shown on the Income tab.
Click here to go back to the
top.
The source of the charts is located on the upper right of the chart. This page is for amusement only, and should not be taken as advice to buy or sell anything.