July 30, 2004
TULANE FOOTBALL PREDICTIONS--2004
Are We There Yet?
Unfortunately, the history of Tulane football since 1950 has involved only a few successful seasons in a sea of less than successful campaigns. The successful seasons have typically been ones in which Tulane has had two or three outstanding players, one of whom has been the starting quarterback, as well as a group of solid veteran players, particularly on defense. When the very good players and their supporting cast have moved on, the pattern has been for Tulane to revert to its losing ways. When this has happened, Tulane fans have had to sit and wait, and wait, until gradually, another team with a few very talented players, assisted by some capable experienced performers, emerges. It is no fun having to wait for the next "good year." Fans, like small children on an extended trip, are always asking: "Are we there yet?" Having waited for so long, their natural tendency is to think that Tulane is "there" when it still has a ways to go.
I hope very much that Tulane is there in 2004. However, I'm afraid we fans are going to have a wait a while longer. However I don't think we shall have to wait a great deal longer.
Last summer, I thought that the 2003 season was going to be very similar to 2002, when Tulane won seven games during the regular season and defeated the University of Hawaii in a very thrilling bowl game. My optimism was based mainly on the fact that the two players who were the keys to Tulane's offensive success in 2002, namely, quarterback J.P. Losman and running back Mewelde Moore, were back. I knew that Tulane would have to replace several defensive players who had graduated or left the team, but I was confident that the defense would be good enough to allow Tulane to continue its winning ways.
Alas, it was not to be, as the Green Wave's record was 5-7. Losman and Moore performed very capably, but they could not overcome a devastating injury situation. Every team experiences some injuries; injuries are part of the game of football. But the extent of the injuries that the Wave suffered last fall was the greatest I have witnessed in my years as a Tulane fan.
The defense was particularly hard hit. Starting safety Wesley Heath went down during preseason practice. Bamm Mateen, perhaps Tulane's best defensive lineman, missed the final eight games of the season. Starting defensive end Michael Roberts soon followed Mateen to the bench. Co-captain Danny Nevil was lost for the season when he injured his back while getting up from his chair during a computer lab! (It was that kind of year.) In fact, only one of the players who started on defense in Tulane's first game, tackle Terrence Tarver, started all of Tulane's remaining games. Moreover, the injury bug did not simply bite starting players. Back-up players were also hurt. As the number of injuries mounted, the coaching staff was required to move several players from offense to defense and to start a number of freshmen. Not surprisingly, Tulane gave up a great many more points than the Wave surrendered in 2002.
The offense did not go unscathed. Tight end Bobby Hoover, like Heath, was lost for the year during the preseason. Mewelde Moore missed the last three games of the season with a hand injury. However, as dire as the situation was, Tulane almost matched its victory total during the regular season in 2002, losing two of its games by three points. Also, the team did not quit. The Green Wave won two of its final three games, and nearly upset Conference USA champion Southern Mississippi in Hattiesburg. Perhaps the highlight of the season was a dramatic come-from-behind win over Mississippi State. Down by fourteen points midway through the fourth quarter, Tulane roared back to win on a field goal in the last minute.
Losman and Moore have moved on to the NFL. J.P. was chosen in the first round of the draft by the Buffalo Bills, while Mewelde was picked in the fifth round by the Minnesota Vikings. It will be interesting to follow the careers of Losman and Moore as professionals. They were both tremendously exciting players at Tulane, and I think they may prove to be equally exciting in the NFL.
There is no doubt that Losman is a very talented quarterback. Tulane has had quite a number of excellent quarterbacks over the years, but when J.P. was "on," he threw the ball as well as anyone at Tulane ever has. Moore may not have been as big or as fast as some running backs, but he has the heart of a lion. I saw many of his most memorable plays, and I often was astounded by what he had done. In my opinion, he is one of Tulane's all-time greats.
By the way, Losman was a classical studies major at Tulane. As far as I know, he is the only Wave quarterback to have had that major. Moore played minor league baseball in the San Diego Padres' organization, and therefore was unable to take classes during the summer. Nevertheless, he managed to graduate in four years. With that kind of determination, I predict he will have a very successful pro career.
One of the reasons I don't think Tulane will have a winning season in 2004 is the adjustment the team will have to make as a result of the absence of Losman and Moore. By that, I don't mean to imply that the players who will be taking the place of these two stars are not good players. The replacements have considerable ability, and in time, they may prove to be very good. However they have little or no experience, and I think it is asking too much to expect that the replacements will pick up where Losman and Moore left off. Neither do I mean to say that the rest of Tulane's offense is not capable. Most of the offensive linemen who played last season return, so Tulane's line play should improve. The receivers, led by Roydell Williams, comprise perhaps the deepest position on the team. But Mewelde Moore holds the record at Tulane for rushing in a game, in a season, and in a career, and he also caught the ball extremely well. Losman took nearly every snap for the Wave in 2002 and 2003. They clearly will be missed.
Let me add a few historical observations which illustrate the impact of having to replace Losman. Almost every successful team Tulane has had over the past forty years has been successful in good part because of the play of its quarterback. The list includes Bobby Duhon in 1966, Steve Foley in 1972-73, Roch Hontas in 1979, Nickie Hall in 1980, Mike McKay in 1981, Terrance Jones in 1987, Shaun King in 1997-98, Patrick Ramsey in 2000, and J.P. Losman in 2002. Bearing in mind that Tulane's quarterback this season will either be a sophomore or a freshman, it should be noted that all of the quarterbacks I mentioned were juniors and/or seniors when they led Tulane to successful seasons. The only exception was Foley, who was a sophomore in 1972. One more note: with one exception, in every season following the season in which the quarterbacks mentioned above completed their careers at Tulane, the Green Wave won fewer games than it did the previous season. Thus, the year after Duhon left, the number of Tulane's victories declined. The same was true in the case of Foley, Hontas, Hall, McKay, Jones, and King. Only when Losman took over for Ramsey in 2002 did Tulane win more games than it did the previous year. Without a doubt, whoever Tulane's quarterback is this season, he faces quite a challenge.
Replacing Losman and Moore is not the only hurdle Tulane must overcome if it is to be successful in 2004. There are other uncertainties. On defense, several players will be trying to come back after suffering serious injuries in 2003. If all or nearly all of them can return to the form they showed before they were injured, Tulane's defense could be much better than last year, but that's a big if. Also, last year, freshman kicker Barrett Pepper managed to kick only three field goals during the season, far fewer than his predecessor, Seth Marler. Pepper was highly regarded coming out of high school, so there is no question that he has the potential to be a productive kicker for Tulane. At this stage, however, it is uncertain whether he will be. Punter Chris Beckman did very well in his freshman season at Tulane, and if he continues to excel, his punting could be one of the strengths of the team.
Last but not least, there are only twelve seniors on Tulane's preseason roster. The Wave's fortunes will be determined in good part by the play of sophomores and freshmen. Many of them are very promising, but they have a lot of learning to do.
Considering all the question marks and Tulane's inexperience, the schedule is quite challenging. Tulane must open the season at Mississippi State, and although State has some question marks of its own, playing an SEC team on its home field is never an easy task. The Green Wave does get to play the next three games at home. The first of these games is against Division 1-AA Florida A&M, which Tulane should defeat, but the other two games are against Louisville and Southern Mississippi, which, as usual, are expected to be among the best teams in Conference USA. Tulane must then travel to East Carolina, where it has never won, and to Memphis, where it has seldom won. Tulane returns home to meet UAB; the Wave defeated the Blazers last season in Birmingham, but they are supposed to be much improved. Then the Greenies journey to Houston to meet the University of Houston, which scored forty-five points against Tulane last year. Tulane closes out the season with home games against Navy and Army, which have both given the Wave problems over the years, and a road contest against TCU, which was on the verge of making it to a BCS bowl in 2003, before everything fell apart for the Horned Frogs against Southern Miss. Sure wins appear to be in very short supply in this schedule.
I look for Tulane to struggle early, particularly on offense. I hope that one of the young quarterbacks establishes himself as Tulane's leader, that the defense is much better than it was in 2003, that Barrett Pepper lives up to his potential, and that the team shows substantial progress during the course of the season. But I don't expect a winning record in 2004.
If all of the foregoing sounds very gloomy, I hasten to add that I think 2005 could be a very good year for Tulane. The bulk of the squad will return next season. If things develop the way I think they will, the Wave will have a team with a capable and experienced quarterback, a formidable defense, and considerable depth on both sides of the ball. In fact, Tulane could be poised to do something it has not managed to do for a very long time, namely, win consistently for an extended period. Are we there yet? No, but I think we soon shall be.
Last year, Tulane played three of its six home games at night, the first time the Wave had played that many evening games in a while. I predicted in my annual essay that if the night games drew good crowds, there would be more such games in the future. The attendance was good for the night games. In one of the day games, the homecoming game, the attendance was also good. However, the other two day games drew small crowds. This year, five of the home games are scheduled to start at 6 p.m. The remaining home game, the homecoming game, will be played in the afternoon.
Now for my game-by-game predictions:
Game One (Away): Mississippi State 24, Tulane 9.
In 2003, the Bulldogs had a dismal season, one that cost Coach Jackie Sherrill his job. Sherrill's replacement is Sylvester Croom, who played college football at Alabama. Croom is the first African-American to be a head football coach in the SEC. He previously was an assistant coach in the NFL. There will be a big and raucous crowd on hand for Coach Croom's first game; the crowd will be composed almost entirely of State fans bent on gaining revenge for last year's loss to Tulane. Like the Wave, MSU will be inexperienced at the quarterback position. Also, State will be adjusting to a new offensive system. Thus, the Bulldogs may struggle on offense. But the home-field advantage gives them an edge that will be hard for Tulane to overcome. By the way, this game will be televised nationally on ESPN2.
Game Two (Home): Tulane 27, Florida A&M 14.
The Wave and A&M will meet in the Dome in what has been billed as "the Emerald Coast Classic." The Rattlers had a 6-6 record last year. Since then, they have suffered from a host of off-the-field problems. In recent years, A&M has played before big crowds in games in cities that have a large African-American population, and officials of both schools are hoping for a good turnout in the Dome. Certainly, Tulane can take nothing for granted, but I think the Greenies will be ready to play in their first home game of the year.
Game Three (Home): Louisville 34, Tulane 17.
Louisville, which has been a member of the same conference as Tulane for nearly thirty years, first in the old Metro Conference, and then in Conference USA, will move to the Big East Conference next season. I shall not be sorry to see the Cardinals go. Louisville never appeared to have any concern for its fellow conference members; rather, its attitude was always "what's in it for the U of L?" The Cardinals also made no secret of their desire to join a BCS conference. Nevertheless, I think that we must give Louisville credit for the aggressive manner in which it pursued and achieved its goal. It would be very nice to defeat Louisville in its final year in Conference USA, but I don't see that happening, even though the game with the Cardinals will be played in the Dome. Louisville is a talented and deep team, with much more experience than Tulane. I do think the game will be more competitive than last year's game.
Game Four (Home): Southern Mississippi 22, Tulane 14.
Southern Miss has been a model of consistency in football for as long as I can remember. The Eagles never seem to be flashy or to perform spectacular feats, but when the smoke clears, they almost invariably have a winning record and are battling for a conference championship. This year, USM must replace eight starters on defense, which provides some hope for an upset. However, Coach Bower always has a tough defensive unit, and I think he will find a way to construct an effective defense. The game with Southern Miss will be played in the Dome, but the Eagles usually bring a large number of fans with them, thereby negating Tulane's home-field advantage. The Wave played USM tough last year, and I look for a spirited effort from the Greenies again this year, but I don't expect a victory.
Game Five (Away): Tulane 19, East Carolina 14.
Last season, Tulane defeated the Pirates in the Dome in the final game of the season. As I noted previously, the Wave has never defeated ECU on its home field, but I think the Greenies will break that losing streak this season. East Carolina will introduce a wide-open, pass-oriented offense this season, and it usually takes some time for a team to master that sort of attack. I'm hoping the Pirates will still be in a learning mode when they meet Tulane.
Game Six (Away): Memphis 37, Tulane 21.
If the win over Mississippi State was the high point of Tulane's season in 2003, the loss to Memphis was clearly the low point. The Tigers routed the Wave before a sparse crowd in the Dome. Memphis is highly regarded going into this season, and I don't see much chance of a Tulane win on the road. As in the case of the Louisville game, I'm hoping the Wave will at least make things closer this year than last.
Game Seven (Home): Tulane 24, UAB 14.
Tulane snapped a losing streak in 2003 when the Wave defeated Alabama-Birmingham on the road. This season, UAB will be the Greenies' homecoming opponent, and for the third straight year, the homecoming game will be played in Tad Gormley Stadium in City Park. The Blazers are supposed to be much improved, but I'm hoping that the Greenies will be inspired by the special nature of the game to defeat UAB again.
Game Eight (Away): Houston 30, Tulane 21.
Last year, Houston was the surprise team of Conference USA. When the Wave met the Cougars, Tulane's defense, decimated by injuries, could not stop Houston's offense. The Cougars built up a big lead, but in the second half, Losman caught fire and very nearly led the Greenies to a win. The comeback fell just short, as Tulane lost by three.
This year, Houston will not sneak up on anyone. Also, the Cougars' out-of-conference schedule includes Oklahoma and Miami. Playing the Sooners and the Hurricanes may take its toll on Houston. Thus, a Tulane win is not out of the question. However, when the two teams meet, the Wave will be playing its third road game in four weeks, and I think Tulane may not be at its best. I give the edge to the home-standing Cougars.
Game Nine (Home): Navy 28, Tulane 24.
Navy had a fine team in 2003, and defeated Tulane handily in Annapolis. Tulane clearly has a chance to beat the Midshipmen this season, especially since the game with Navy will be a home game for the Greenies. It's not as if Navy has a big advantage in talent over the Wave. However, I'm picking the Middies to win because since 1998, Tulane has been unable to defeat both Army and Navy in the same year. The teams from the service academies are always well prepared and extremely determined. The Wave, it seems, can overcome the preparation and enthusiasm of either Army or Navy, but not both within the same season.
Game Ten (Home): Tulane 30, Army 10.
Army has a proud tradition in college football, but in recent years, the Cadets have not fared too well on the gridiron. One of Army's few accomplishments has been its annoying ability to defeat Tulane. Army beat the Greenies in 2000, 2001, and 2002. Last season, the Wave won fairly easily at West Point, and the powers that be at Army, perhaps shocked at this turn of events, dismissed Army's coach shortly thereafter. The Cadets' new coach is Bobby Ross, who has an impressive background. Ross is clearly a good coach, but any improvement he brings to the Army team is likely to be gradual. I look for Tulane to make it two in a row over the Cadets.
Game Eleven (Away): TCU 33, Tulane 21.
It is difficult to foresee what the situation will be for Wave and the Horned Frogs in late November. Will Tulane have anything to play for except pride in the final game of the season? Will TCU again be fighting to make it to a BCS bowl, as it was last year? It does appear that the Frogs have another talented team, and the game will be played in Fort Worth, so I think TCU will win.
Needs And Perceptions
In my forty-five years as a Tulane fan, I have had the pleasure of watching some very fine Green Wave teams and some exceptional Wave players. I have even experienced an undefeated season. What I have not seen is consistent winning, and by that I mean having more wins than losses over a fairly lengthy span of years. Tulane enjoyed that kind of success during the 1920s and 1930s, but since then, winning seasons have come only on an intermittent basis.
I am very grateful for the enjoyment Tulane's winning teams have brought me as a fan. To put things in perspective, I note that Vanderbilt has not had a winning season since 1982, and Rice has not gone to a bowl game since, I believe, 1961. I can only imagine what life would be like for Tulane fans if we did not have the memories of the "Year of the Green" (1970) and 1973 and 1979 and 1987 and 1998 and 2002 to sustain us. On the other hand, for the Greenie faithful, the good years have been much too infrequent. Indeed, I don't think it is an exaggeration to say that what Tulane football needs more than anything else is to win consistently.
When Chris Scelfo became head coach at Tulane following the 1998 regular season, his stated goal was to build a program that could be successful over the long term, not simply win occasionally. It has proven to be an elusive goal. However, he has recruited quite a few top-notch players to Tulane, and, in my opinion, the overall talent level of the football team has increased considerably since he arrived. He has had two winning seasons in five years, and but for the all the injuries last season, he would have had three winning seasons in five years. Even though I do not expect a winning season in 2004, I think that Coach Scelfo may be close to achieving his goal. Of course, my saying this will not make it happen. We shall just have to wait and see.
Because Tulane has lost much more often than it has won over the past fifty years, Tulane football has a negative perception, particularly among casual fans and the general public. Winning consistently would be the most effective way to counter this perception. However, wins and losses are not the only developments that can affect how Tulane football is perceived. In this regard, there have been two occurrences within the past few months that I think will affect the perception of Tulane football in a positive way.
The first such occurrence was the settlement announced between the coalition of non-BCS conference members, headed by President Cowen, and representatives of the BCS conferences. Although the settlement did not guarantee that a non-BCS school would play in a BCS bowl game every year, the settlement did significantly improve the access of non-BCS schools to the BCS bowls. If the provisions of the settlement had been in effect in 1998, Tulane would have played in a BCS bowl game. Other non-BCS schools would have done the same in recent years.
The fact that Tulane and other non-BCS conference members have a better chance of playing in a BCS bowl game will, I think, have a considerable impact on the way the games played by Tulane and other non-BCS schools are perceived. These games should be regarded as more important than was previously the case, because more will be at stake. Because of their greater importance, the games should receive more attention from the media and draw larger crowds. At least I hope that is what will happen.
The other occurrence which I think will affect the perception of Tulane football for the better has to do with Tulane's marching band. Wave fans have often had to endure the spectacle of an opponent turning a game in the Dome into a "home" game simply by bringing its band with it. It was truly an embarrassment that Tulane, located in a city that is closely associated with music and marching bands, did not have a band of its own.
Last season, for the first time in quite a while, Tulane had a marching band. Since then, the administration at Tulane has taken steps that will greatly enhance the status of the band. In the very near future, possibly this season, Tulane will have a first-class marching band. This should greatly improve the atmosphere at Tulane's home games. Moreover, the impact of the band will not be limited to football games. When a Tulane band containing one hundred or more musicians takes to the streets for Mardi Gras parades and other public events, I think the band's appearances will cause many of those attending the events to consider Tulane University and Tulane football in a more favorable light.
So hang in there, Tulane fans. Even if the 2004 football season is not a great one in terms of the Green Wave's won-loss record, I think that good times lie ahead. And if the Tulane team goes out and has a great season this year, that will be fine with me.
Roll Wave!
Reuben I. Friedman