Ponder the Maunder
Science Dude
Factors Affecting Global Temperature
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Why you should NEVER believe what you read in the paper about climate
By KBSF Volunteer Craig Lauder

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August 7, 2008, a story about rising temperature appears in the Orange County Register, a major news paper in Southern California. Science Correspondent Gary Robbins (nickname: Science Dude) reports that the temperature in Santa Ana, California has risen over 6 degrees in 100 years. He quotes “NASA Climatologist” Bill Patzert who claims that 60% of the rise is from urbanization and 40% is from greenhouse gases.

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Oceanographer Bill Patzertm NASA JPL

August 9, 2008, Anthony Watts photographs the temperature station at the Santa Ana Fire Department. As many of Anthony’s readers might expect, the temperature station was incorrectly located on the roof of a building near HVAC and other equipment with heat sinks. 89% of all surface temperature stations in the U.S. which monitor climate are improperly located.

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Shortly after, The Science Dude recieved comments on his blog about the claim that 40% of the temperature rise was due to greenhouse gases. An update was immediately posted by The Science Dude! The “NASA Climatologist” revised his figures, not 40%, but… 25%! He said that it was due to greenhouse gas heating of the oceans, that sea level rise was “unequivical proof of this,” that the local mountains have warmed about the same which ”…can be seen in our shorter snow pack seasons.”

 

In a subsequent post, The Science Dude was informed that temperature variations in Orange County California were significantly influenced by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation which causes decadal changes in the amount of  cold water upwelling off the nearby coast. It was pointed out to Science Dude, that in 1977 the local temperature jumped about 5 degrees, the same time as the “Great Pacific Climate Shift” when the PDO switched from cool to warm phases.

 

Not to be outdone, The Science Dude fired back with a response that the poster “grossly mistated” the findings of Hartmann / Wendler, Journal of Climate.

 

20 minutes later the poster made the following comment, “Like I told ya Dude, get some better sources. The paper you quoted is: Hartmann, B., Wendler, G., On the significance of the 1976 Pacific climate shift in the climatology of Alaska. Journal of Climate.

You obviously did not read the paper, or even its title. Our discussion is the effect on climate in Orange County California by the Pacific Climate Shift.

DO YOU KNOW THE DIFERENCE BETWEEN ORANGE COUNTY CALIFORNIA AND ALASKA?

Let me give you a clue. Orange County: Boogie boarding the Wedge or surfing Huntington Pier. Alaska: Keep your butt in the boat and fish for Northern Halibut.”

 

The poster, a KBSF contributor, went on to explain Hartman / Wendler in a less “clowning” tone.

 

Hartman / Wendler, for those who have not read it, compared how the climate of different parts of Alaska were affected by the Pacific Climate Shift. They concluded that some areas were affected by the change in PDO more than others because the Arctic Oscillation also affects some areas of Alaska. How The Science Dude could possibly draw a link to the climate of Southern California, from a study of Alaska, is mind boggling; unless, Dr Patzert again, shot from the hip, and gave the reporter another idea off the top of his head.

 

The response by The Science Dude was to erase all of the (obviously embarrassing) posts and kick the poster off of his blog for being “insulting” and uncivil.

 

So here you have it folks, a science correspondent at a reputable and influential newspaper reporting on a subject matter that he does not understand, using sources who do not understand the subject matter and scientific citations where he didn’t even read the title, then covers his tracks when caught and called out. Sources need to be double-checked, even a tenured and respected oceanographer like Bill Patzert who really ought to know something about California climate, or at least the PDO.

 

Dr Patzert also ought to know that the oceans have been cooling since 2003. This is confirmed by IPCC 2007, the new ARGO system (upper ocean heat content), NOAA Satellites (Sea Surface Temperature), and the Hadley Center (marine air temperature). None of these observations jive with the notion that down welling infrared from anthropogenic greenhouse gases is warming the oceans. Instead, the cooling oceans are following a reoccurring “regime shift” that happens every 30 or so years as noted by Karl et Al 2000.

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Fortunately, we can, and will, turn this negative situation into a positive learning experience for all, especially the tens of thousands of school kids who consult Ponder the Maunder for school papers, debates and presentations during the school year. It is very common for us to answer such issues as, “I read about global warming in the newspaper but we shoveled snow for 4 months this year.” Now they’ll understand how the newspapers get it wrong so often.

 

It’s a natural cycle, folks, learn to live with it. Newspapers, and even scientists, can get it wrong.

 

 

Hartmann, B., Wendler, G., On the significance of the 1976 Pacific climate shift in the climatology of Alaska. Journal of Climate.

http://climate.gi.alaska.edu/ResearchProjects/Hartmann%20and%20Wendler%202005.pdf

 

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