Swiss energy use...how relevant ?                             => Back to INDEX

Stability Domains Example = Swiss housing sector, 

   from Loulou, R., Waaub, J.-P., & Zaccour, G. (2005)

Chapter 2

A COUPLED BOTTOM-UP/TOP-DOWN

MODEL FOR GHG ABATEMENT

SCENARIOS IN THE SWISS

HOUSING SECTOR

Laurent Drouet

Alain Haurie

Maryse Labriet

Philippe Thalmann

Marc Vielle

Laurent Viguier

Abstract In this paper we report on the coordinated development of a regional

module within a world computable general equilibrium model (CGEM)

and of a bottom up energy-technology-environment model (ETEM) describing

long term economic and technology choices for Switzerland to

mitigate GHG emissions in accordance with Kyoto and post-Kyoto possible

targets. We discuss different possible approaches for coupling the

two types of models and we detail a scenario built from a combined

model where the residential sector is described by the bottom-up model

and the rest of the economy by the CGEM.

Figure 2.1. Main sources of COz emissions

PK = Kinda flat. Nukes & hydro looks much like NYS, as well as the end-user regime.

           They have to get any further savings from housing, transport & consumer svcs.

          If you look at the overall need to totally reduce, this bodes less well to position Swiss & the like as an end-goal for industrial places.  

          Must be another model, another way to reduce?

Figure 2.1 shows the main COz sources since 1990 (from Swiss GHG

inventory in SAEFL, 2000). The shares are quite stable. Transportation

accounts for the largest share, rising slowly from about 32% in the early

1990s to 35% in the early 2000s. The share of emissions from residential

energy use was about 27% in the first half of the 1990s and declined to

about 25% today. In total quantity those emissions were hardly lowered

but per capita they went down from 1.82 tonne in 1991 to 1.52 tonne in

2002.

Note the relatively small share of industry-related C02 emissions. Indeed,

Switzerland imports a very large proportion of intermediate and

final goods with high energy content. The emissions associated with

the production of those goods are not counted as Switzerland's contribution

to the accumulation of GHGs. They have been estimated at 60

to 70% of domestic emissions. A second and related factor is the near

absence of heavy industries and the high share of the services sector in

GDP (67% in 1999). A third factor is the near absence of coal- or oil-fired

power plants for electricity generation. The first nuclear power plant was

hooked to the grid in 1969. Thirty years ,later, nuclear power plants produce

nearly 35% of electric energy. 60% are produced by hydroelectric

power plants. The production of thermal power stations has been insignificant

throughout the twentieth century. Of course, the high shares

of hydropower and nuclear in electricity generation help keep down C02

emissions. However, electricity represents only 22% of total final energy

consumption of 855.3 PJ in 2000. The bulk share is that of oil products

and they are entirely imported.

The drawback of this good performance is that it will be quite costly

to further reduce the C02 intensity of the Swiss economy. Even the 8%

target set in the Kyoto Protocol would be very demanding if economic

growth were not so sluggish. Indeed, it is generally recognized that

the marginal abatement cost for Switzerland is among the highest in

OECD countries (for example, see Kram and Hill, 1996; Bahn et al.,

1998, and Bernard et al., 2004b). On the other hand, Switzerland has

additional incentives for reducing its use of fossil energy, namely reducing

its imports and its dependency on world oil supply.

In many European countries, heavy industry bears the bulk of CO2

emissions reductions. This is not possible in Switzerland and therefore

the other sectors, most notably transportation and housing, must also

contribute their share. Efforts to curb fuel consumption in the transportation

sector meet fierce resistance by the oil sector, car owners and

their organizations. Better results are obtained in the housing sector.