Introduction to my price data

During the period of June 25, 1998 to September 10, 2001, I recorded each and every auction for
single items or standard body/lens combos on virtually everything marketed in the OM System.
Additionally, I recorded all major brand generic lenses in OM mounts (which typically sell for
over US$50), all FTL system equipment, all published Olympus literature (with the exception of
instruction books and manufacturer brochures) and all Olympus related ephemera (pins,
displays, banners, etc.). Unlike other available data, I condition graded all of these individual
auctions, critically checking all the word and picture clues the seller provided.  In another words,
I didn't accept "excellent" just because a seller claimed it and didn't justify/illustrate why.  Plus,
I coded an uncertainty level if I had more than typical doubts, like when there weren't any clues
provided. Think of that as reading between the lines, which is what experienced buyers do. Thus,
I have a condition grade that reflects what a savvy buyer might consider as their "expectation of
grade" and "degree of anxiety" if they were to purchase the item. For common items, I even have
condition grades on the as-is item sales.                                  

From the very beginning I wanted to avoid sampling and the inherent limitations of sampling
which I've faced in all the big data sets I've worked with in biology. Plus I wanted to know
commonness and rarity of anything OM related. So I proceeded to record all completed auction
and Buy It Now sales on eBay, including those bloody 50mm f/1.8 lens sales, differentiated by
SC, MC1, MC2 coating modifiers!  I invite you to compare my data to other data which is
available and pay close attention to the methodology used in gathering it. My end result is a
population census of all auctions over the stated time period. The results across condition grades
might not always make logical sense, but it is exactly what the data reveals - that buyers aren't
always logical.

Of course, this has taken thousands of hours of labor to compile. That is why I'm not willing to
give the rest of my data away. Some have felt that a compilation of Internet auction data is next
to worthless because the merchandise cannot be examined. In comparison, you could just buy
Michael McBroom's Bluebook and get data on dealer asking prices within the traveling camera
show venue in the USA. Like my data, the condition grading for his bluebook was done with an
expectation of working condition. How many of us camera show buyers have found as-is
merchandise, but otherwise at "working" prices, because the dealer didn't know or reveal that it
was broken or missing something?  I sure have and ironically it didn't matter if the seller was an
Olympus specialist or not.  So, I don't think that the inability to examine Internet purchased
merchandise before buying it invalidates my effort. (I even noted missing parts, like MD caps).
In another words, if some follow-up reports of auctions described as "excellent" turned out to be
"as-is," well, the same has happened with camera show deals (and mail order!). And nobody is
saying McBroom's is invalid because he didn't account for those same instances at camera
shows. 

My premise is that we are buying from eBay on an "expectation of grade," tempered by a certain
level of anxiety due to less than perfect information.  Those dual perceptions, without question,
are the major influences behind the price paid for Olympus OM equipment. True, they are
confounded by periodic spikes associated with buyer behavior from exceptionally high bids
(e.g., people only using 10-20 day completed auction data who think just those displayed prices
actually reflect the market) and by seasonality (e.g., Christmas madness). But hopefully you will
find this 40 month data useful.  Why did I stop?  The market went through major gyrations after
Sept. 11, 2001 and the effort just because too time consuming to continue.  Plus, it was time to
get back to photography and teaching.

Condition grades are number equivalents to the KEH Camera Brokers letter grades, as follows:
10-IB = LN
10- = LN-
9+ = Ex+
9 = Ex
9- and 8 = BGN, with 9- being something with only a single conspicuous cosmetic flaw and
otherwise lighter use than an 8 grade.
7 = UGLY. 

"As-is" grades are as follows:
6 = reparable with Ex cosmetics
5 = repairable with BGN cosmetics
4 = repairable with UGLY cosmetics
3 = beyond economic repair with Ex cosmetics
2 = beyond economic repair with BGN cosmetics
1 = beyond economic reapir with UGLY cosmetics
0 = as-is (undifferentiated)

IB means in box. 

? for the certainty code are auctions with higher than normal buyer anxiety as to the true
condition/operability of the lens up for auction. 

? for the condition code are auctions where the seller leaves potential buyers clueless as to
condition.

Gary Reese