July 11, 2009
Gail at CrossingTheRubicon has posted a link to a very interesting article titled: Think Again: Asia's Rise.
Interesting article. With my education background and my experiences of travelling and living in Asia, I have always shaken my head at the Rise of Asia articles. Actually, most articles published in the West about Asia in general are filled with inaccuracies or, in the very least, over-generalizations about an area of the world most Westerners know very little about. This article, though, is very different. It is good - go read it.
Here's my "brain-dump" on the subject:
Even with 24/7 news and the internet so much of what happens in Asia does not make it into the news here in the U.S.
Recent riots (nothing new, I might add) in western China back up the author's claims about Chinese instability. The gap between the "haves" and the "have-nots" in China is large and getting larger. This economic inequality is counter to the Communist Party's professed ideology; it is a contradiction that could undermine the party's authority. The tension between ethnic Han Chinese and the other minorites within China's borders will only increase because of the growing economic gap. I believe, that this will become a bigger issue than anyone is currently predicting.
India, too, will have a similar problem with its "untouchables", estimated to be about 25% of its total population. It doesn't make the news here much; but India has ethnic and caste riots on a somewhat regular basis. Often local (and sometimes national) politicians in India use these ethnic and caste tensions to get votes. Although many Indians are trying, unless India can overcome this; "ethnic-tensions" will blow up in India's face.
When I was in Kolkata (formerly known as Calcutta), India, my driver was Muslim and spoke Bengali as his first language. It seemed, that despite his being Indian and being proud of being Indian, he had more in common with the folks across the border in Bangladesh than he had with the folks in New Delhi. The same was somewhat true when I was in Darjeeling, everyone I met there spoke Nepali as their first language - Hindi was a language that was foreign to them.
Consider that many historians agree that it took a devastating civil war in the U.S. before people stopped thinking of themselves as "Virginians, Pennsylvanians, New Yorkers, Carolinians, New Englanders, etc." and start thinking of themselves as "Americans." What will it take for Indians, of all ethnicities and castes, to start thinking of themselves as "Indians"?
Unlike the former Soviet Union which set up Republics (although one might argue they were only token Republics with all calls coming from Moscow) China has not done so. In fact, China seems to set on a policy of "Sinicizing" all territory under its control. by allowing massive migration of Han into non-Han areas. Han Chinese will soon be the majority in areas where they were traditional a small or non-existant minority. Will the non-Han minorities in China ever feel that they are a part of the country in which they reside?
Without the U.S. involvement in South Asia, India and Pakistan might very well go at each other with nuclear weapons. Or in the very least go into huge financial debt trying to out race each other in developing and stockpiling such weapons. Something that neither of them can afford. There is also the question as to whether Pakistan will continue to exist; remember, part of Pakistan - the "Tribal Areas" - is not even under the central government's control. What if the tribal areas expand to include all of Pakistan's countryside? How can any country continue to exist when it only controls it major cities?
I also don't see China and India working together on anything anytime soon. There have been, in the past, tensions between China and India over their shared border. Certainly, India's playing host to the Dalai Lama and the exiled Tibetan community is a thorn in China's side. How will China react when the Dalai Lama passes on to the next Lama, one not appointed by Peking?
As mentioned by the author, the U.S. can play "peacemaker." Not really mentioned by the author is that the U.S. and India have signed military agreements. This is a bold step for a country that has a great deal of fear in dealing with the West because of its colonial past. I suspect that India has signed on to this agreement because of its fears of Pakistan while the U.S. has signed on because it doesn't want China to have influence in the area. It will be interesting to see how all this plays out. Our younger generation had better start learning more about this part of the world now; or we had better make sure that Indian and Pakistani-Americans feel more American than not to make sure that there aren't questions about "divided loyalties."
As mentioned by the author, China is not exactly loved by its neighbors; especially those in Southeast Asia. Parts of Vietnam and Laos used to be tributary states to China before the Europeans arrived on the scene. The very name Viet Nam is related to a Chinese Word Viet, or in Mandarin Yue, which was the name of an ancient state in what is now GuangDong and GuangXi provinces and Nam, in Mandarin Nan, which means south. One could argue that this would be sort of like calling Mexico "Southern Texas" or referring to Canada as "Northern Massachusetts." While we do have New England, New Scotland (i.e. Nova Scotia), and New Mexico I don't think these names are comparable as they are regions, provinces, or states not whole countries.
China has, after the U.S. pulled out of Southeast Asia, invaded Vietnam - an action that certainly didn't endear the Chinese in the hearts of the Vietnamese. China lays claim to the whole South China Sea, something that its neighbors don't agree with.
India, too, has had trouble with its neighbors on all sides - Pakistan to its west with which it has fought three wars since 1949; Bangladesh to its east with hasn't forgotten that India allowed ground troops to cross Indian territory while fighting for its independence from Pakistan; and China (really Tibet - a whole different issue not mentioned by the author) to its north.
Ethnic Chinese in Southeast Asia are in a position similar to Jews in Medieval Europe; a strong part of the economy, part of the educated class, often the main part of the merchant class, yet often second-class citizens of those countries. China has sometimes taken a stance (although not always very strongly) that these "overseas" Chinese (there actually is a set phrase, Hwa Chiao, in Chinese for such folks) should be protected from harassment by local governments. When China invaded Vietnam it was precisely as retribution for the Vietnamese treatment of ethnic Chinese within Vietnam's borders. The ethnic Chinese were being chased out while being forced to hand over their gold before they left (we, in the West, don't realize how lucky we have it in many regards, but especially in having a somewhat reliable currency - gold is used by many around the world as the only form of investment, it doesn't devalue as currency and is welcomed everywhere). Many of the Vietnamese boat people back in the late 1970s and early 1980s were just such victims of ethnic hatred. These ethnic tensions between Hwa Chiao and locals will be an issue that could prevent China from gaining any real influence in East and SouthEast Asia.
In The Philippines, in Southern Thailand, and other parts of Southeast Asia, there are growing problems, again not always making the news here in the West, with Muslim terrorists (sorry, but I refuse to call them "insurgents") blowing up schools, government buildings, or killing and beheading locals who aren't Muslim. As we continue to win the fight against terrorism in western Asia this problem will grow in East Asia as the terrorist thugs are chased out of the Middle East.
And lastly, the author doesn't even touch on Russia and China. I have always found it interesting that in Chinese the word for Russia is "eh" sort of pronounced like a guttural "ugh" - a sound of disgust. It is also fourth (or falling) tone. Words in this tone in Chinese do not usually have a good meaning or good connotations. The Russia city of Vladivostok gets its name from two Russian words; vladi is the root of the word that means to "reach out and grab" and the word vostok means East. So, the city is named for what its purpose was in Czarist (and current?) times - reaching out from Moscow and grabbing the East. So, it is safe to say that there is no love between the Chinese and Russians.
Yep, we are going to see the "rise" of Asia soon; just not in the form that many have been predicting.
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