Saturday, January 1, 2005

Parades

Why do the networks spend so much time talking about the floats and the flowers in the Rose Parade when everyone knows that the only reason for parades is the marching bands? We were never one of those nationally-competitive bands when I was in high school, but we did become one of the best bands in Charlotte while I was there, rivaling Lex's South Meck Sabres. we got straight 1's at state contest all three years that I was there, a feat no other class had managed (of course Independence was only 10 years old when I started as a sophomore). Our football team sucked so bad (3 total wins in my last two years) that people used to show up on Friday nights to see us instead of the team. Hard to believe that now the Patriots have won five straight state 4A championships, 77 straight games (average score 48-10) and finished ranked number 2 in the nation by USA Today.

When I watch parades on television, I'm of course reminded of the annual Carolinas Carousel Parade on Thanksgiving Day in Charlotte. Since we marched in it my three years of high school there and I went down to cheer on the band the year after, we developed a tradition in the family of Thanksgiving chili instead of turkey since a good part of the day was taken up uptown and we could fix it quickly. It seems it was always sunny and hot, at least in our wool uniforms. We also did the Mooresville Christmas parade a couple of years, which we took much less seriously to the extent that I think we weren't invited back after the entire trombone section (of which I was a part) duckwalked the last few hundred yards of the parade. Because of our quasi-revolutionary war uniforms (complete with tricorner hats), we got invited in '76 to march in the Shrine Bowl parade and to participate in a halftime mock battle with a band from South Carolina whose unis looked a bit like British grenadiers (EVERYTHING was bicentennial something or other that year). There were floats on the field made of cardboard tubes covered in paper that were full of helium-filled balloons that we were supposed to break open so that the balloons would be released. Instead we mainly ran and dived onto the top of the floats, popped the balloons, pulled the cardboard tubes apart, and began whacking members of the opposing band with them. I don't think we ever got invited back to the Shrine parade either.

JennySlash doesn't understand the whole marching band experience or why I will stand transfixed in front of the television when I happen across a drum and bugle corps contest. But if you're an old bandy, you know. And you never forget.

Friday, December 31, 2004

Social Security is Dead. Long Live Social Security.

While I was working too much to blog from mid-November on, Social Security seemed to become the news of the day, with the Preznit sounding its deathknell without his intervention to privatize it. Of course he never really said how he was going to pay for it or why it was dead or why he thought hundreds of millions of us really wanted to have to go do research and figure out the best way to invest this money. Paul Krugman and Brad DeLong, among others, have done some pretty good work to debunk both the idea that Social Security is on its last legs and that privatization is a good thing, but I keep going back to an article in Salon from James K. Galbraith in response to one of the Presidential debates in October that was reprinted here - (no sitting through ads required) - and wondering if he really knows what he's talking about. I'll be the first to admit that I really know doodly about Social Security - any of you that know more have a view of whether Galbraith is making sense or not? Okay, you guys are as lazy as I am and you'll never follow the link, so here's all but a couple of lines of the article:

1. Social Security is part of the government. It cannot run out of money unless the whole government also runs out of money. And the government of the United States cannot run out of money. That is not my opinion, it's an economic fact.

2. Social Security is an entitlement. Not even Congress can easily interfere with its payments. Congress would have to vote to default on the bonds Social Security holds for benefits to fail over the next 40 years. It would have made more sense for Schieffer to say, "We all know that the Pentagon is running out of money" -- military spending must be appropriated each year. But we all know that the Pentagon won't be permitted to run out of money. Ditto Social Security, in spades.

3. Yes, the U.S. government can make policy mistakes. It could potentially run such large deficits that we would get a ruinous inflation, or a disastrous decline of the dollar. But such a result could never be due to Social Security alone. It's a risk of the budget deficit as a whole. Obviously, Bush's tax cuts made a much larger contribution to the overall deficit than Social Security ever will.

4. Right now, Social Security isn't running a deficit. It's running a surplus. Yes, that's right. The payroll tax takes in more revenue than Social Security pays out. This will continue to be true until at least 2018. It could remain true for much longer than that -- if the economy starts to grow good payroll jobs, on which Social Security taxes are paid.

5. After 2018, because of the retirement of the baby boomers, it's likely that Social Security benefits will exceed payroll tax revenues. Is this a problem? Not really. The program's trustees project that benefits can be paid with no changes at all in the program until 2042. The Congressional Budget Office says 2052. If the economy does as well between now and then as it did during the past 75 years, no changes will ever be needed. And if it doesn't, the real benefit when shortfalls hit will still be higher than today.

6. If the Trust Funds eventually have to be adjusted in order for full promised benefits to be paid, minor adjustments will suffice. And they will be good policy. When payrolls are relatively small, why not tap other revenues to pay pensions? The tax increases in any decade from the '50s to the '80s would have been adequate to plug the gap. Suppose, for example, that the estate tax were not repealed but instead credited to Social Security? In that way, much of the shortfall could be covered from America's most progressive revenue source. (Even the New York Times' editorial board recently suggested this might be a good idea.)

7. How long can we go on paying Social Security benefits at present and projected levels? Essentially forever. Social Security benefits are not grossly excessive. And at 6.6 percent of gross domestic product over the long run, they won't become grossly excessive. Unlike medical costs, per capita retirement costs are not exploding. As economist Dean Baker puts it: "There was no point in the years from 1937 until the 1983 reforms when the program would have looked as strong as it does today."

8. When NBC's Andrea Mitchell accused John Kerry of pandering on Social Security after the debate, she reflected the mind-set of the coddled rich. Yes, it may be necessary someday to touch a little more of her income to cover all the bills. But frankly, Mrs. Greenspan, it's worth it -- both to protect America's elderly and to watch you squirm.

9. After that lousy preface, Schieffer asked a good question. Privatization of Social Security would divert payroll tax revenues into private accounts. And that would blow a huge hole in the budget. Bush simply ignored this fact, as he always does. The fact is, Bush wants to gut Social Security. He made that clear Wednesday night.

So what do some of you smart guys think?

Thursday, December 30, 2004

NC Mountain Christmas

Had a wonderful Christmas weekend at my mom's house in Yancey County in the NC mountains. It was cold (upper teens Christmas night) but not as bad as they had predicted. It did remind me of the Christmas of 1983, when we woke up to a -12F temperature and Dad and I drove up to Mount Mitchell long enough to read some ridiculous temp like -30F or something (the record for Mount Mitchell is -34 set a little over a year later). I know the windchill was something like negative 60. The most memorable thing about that morning was driving past a tent near the entrance to Mount Mitchell State Park and seeing some cat getting out of it and giving a big morning stretch like it was a warm summer day. I hope he was testing out his Everest gear.

J's mom went up with us Christmas morning and we got to Mom's just before Dad arrived with my sister and brother-in-law and nephew. Alan gets so little time off of work that we sometimes sort of rush through things but this year actually seemed pretty relaxed. Good food, good drink, good conversation. Oh, and yeah, there were presents. Every year we all say we're not going to spend as much on Christmas and every year we all go back on our word until this year - I guess we all said it enough this time that everyone felt okay about it. The result was that I got stuff that I absolutely wanted or needed and nothing that I didn't. That seems to have held true across the board. J crocheted up ponchos and scarves and afghans for everyone that were extremely well-received. My nephew got enough Best Buy gift cards to keep him in PS2 games for at least the next, well, week (I don't think you could give him a present he'd appreciate more except maybe cash). But the best present was being able to spend a little time with my family - a rare thing these days.

Had to work today but I've been off the rest of the week. JennySlash and I took her mom over to the NC Museum of Art for our second visit to the School of Paris show and of course again it blew me away. I appreciate Picasso without being a huge fan, but Matisse has always been one of my favorites. There are some quite wonderful works in the modern gallery upstairs as well. We also ran into PC and Kelly and the boys while waiting in line which was extra cool since it didn't look like we were going to get to see them this holiday. And I don't know who's running the museum cafe these days (used to be Irregardless) but we've had two phenomenal meals there in the last few weeks. I'm used to spending 6 bucks on an egg salad sandwich at some of the cafes at the Smithsonian - I'd much rather drop 8 or 9 bucks for a really good meal. If you go for brunch on the weekend, I highly recommend the Eggs Picasso!

Gearing up to catch the Sex Police at the Cradle tomorrow night as our entree into 2005. In addition to seeing the band, this has all the earmarks of old home night, so I expect to see lots of people we haven't seen in years. Should be a hoot!