Home > 09 Triple Crown Notes
Warning: subject to constant review and revision...use at your own risk.
The Triple Crown races should be limited to 14 starters qualified by earnings from races at a mile or more. More time between races would be acceptable so long as the dates fall between May 1 and July 1.
Sectional time standards for the American Triple Crown race series (speed figure = 105).
Ky Dby: 47.2 / 111.4 / 136.4 / 143.1 / 149.2 / 202.0 Preakness: 47.1 / 111.3 / 136.3 / 143.0 / 149.1 / 155.3 Belmont: 48.1 / 112.4 / 137.4 / 144.0 / 150.2 / 202.4 / 215.2 / 228.0
Belmont Post Race:
odds: 7 MTB 7-5 (6-5) - (3) 6 CM 7-2 (9-2) + (4) $0.00 2 DK 5-1 (5-1) - (2) 4 SB 9-1 (11-1) + (1) $25.80 ----------------------------- 9 ME 18-1 (22-1)- (10)
MTB shows a pattern of decline:
Mine That Bird: 42,49,91,+7,(100) Belmont 41,52,93,+11,(104) Preakness 36,58,94,+22,(105) Ky Dby
The pedigree of Summer Bird traces tail-female to Moon Glitter, a full sister to leading sire and turf sire Relaunch, sire of Skywalker and damsire of Ghostzapper, both Breeders Cup Classic winners. Others include Tapit (Wood Memorial S), Affirmatif (Woodlawn S), and Rubiano (NYRA Mile Hcp).
A fractional comparison of Summer Birds Arkansas Dby paceline against the standard:
Standard: 48.1 / 112.4 / 137.4 Actual: 48.0 / 112.2 / 137.2 Diff: -1 -2 -2
Summer Bird and Musket Man both improved while moving ahead in class and distance. The second call figures increment upward while the final fractions remain constant. The last 3 on fast dirt:
Summer Bird: 43,50,94,+7,(105) Belmont (12F) 42,49,91,+7,(101) Ark Dby (9F) 41,50,91,+9,(99) msw (8.5F) Musket Man: 43,49,92,+6,(103) Preakness (9.5F) 41,50,91,+9,(99) Ill Dby (9F) 39,49,88,+10,(93) TB Dby (8.5F)
Two horses on the lead going longer and running flat out.
Dunkirk: 47,44,91,-3,(100) Belmont (12F) 44,50,94,+6,(105) Fla Dby (9F) Rachel Alexandra: 48,46,94,-2,(106) Preakness (9.5F) 45,51,96,+6,(110) Ky Oaks (9F)
Preakness Post Race:
odds: 13 RA 6-5 (9-5) + (1) $5.60 2 MTB 5-2 (6-1) + (2) $0.00 7 PC 7-1 (14-1) + (6) $0.00
The above 3 win contenders form a group overlay. RA is a legitimate favorite.
Pioneer Of The Nile was a medium priced co-second choice off his 2nd place Ky Dby finish and ran poorly 1st time on fast dirt which is not suprising. Horses that run weak speed figures off normal to slow 2nd call times usually don't figure to win.
Pioneer Of The Nile: 45,42,87,-3,(92) Ky Dby (off track) 46,43,89,-3,(95) SA Dby (poly)
Papa Clem failed to back-up his Ark Dby performance on a fast surface.
Papa Clem: 46,41,87,-5,(91) Preakness 45,42,87,-3,(92) Ky Dby (off track) 44,48,92,+4,(103) Ark Dby 41,43,84,+2,(87) LA Dby (off track) 45,47,92,+2,(102) RB Lewis (poly)
A fractional comparison of the Preakness paceline against the standard shows Rachel Alexandra running 3-4 ticks fast at every point which indicates a faster than normal surface and/or an above 105 performance.
Standard: 47.1 / 111.3 / 136.3 / 143.0 / 155.3 Actual: 46.3 / 111.0 / 135.4 / 142.1 / 155.0 Diff: -3 -3 -4 -4 -3 Figs: 48 46 94,-2,(106)
Ky Dby Post Race:
odds: pass
Friesan Fire as the 7-2 favorite had run well in similar conditions against a 113 n/c pace and drew an inside post. The rail was fast but the surface otherwise was tiring. Off tracks either dirt or turf demand more in terms of stamina for older horses (longer distances) or foundation for younger ones (more starts). The top 4 from this years Derby showed no fewer than 6 prior starts. Previous off track form/wins are always a positive indicator. Regal Ransom was similar to Friesan Fire in ability (see: sectional timing) with a good off-track pedigree and an RPR-112 roughly equal to a speed figure of 98, but with a light 5 race foundation.
Birdstone the sire of Mine That Bird is a Belmont and multiple grade-1 winner with a stud fee USD-10k which would be the dividing line between good and not so good. Birdstone won the Champagne Stks at 8.5f on October 4 of his 2yo season which stamped him as a precocious classic hopeful. MTB showed a similar win in the October 5 Grey Stks also at 8.5f. The rates of improvement are similar, 13 speed figure points over an average of 7.5 months or about 1.75 points per month.
Birdstone: 48,47,95,-1,(108) Belmont 38,51,89,+13,(95) Champagne Mine That Bird: 36,58,94,+22,(105) Ky Dby 40,47,87,+7,(92) Grey (poly)
The record for MTB overall shows precosity, foundation, and preparation for the dirt surface although MTB had never run on the off going prior to the Derby or with this rider. Running 1-2-3 or within 3 lengths or thereabouts is acceptable form in a Triple Crown prep race.
How many horses in the race could get sub-1:37 on dirt off a sub-1:12 pace with the foundation to handle the off track? MTB certainly should not be tossed on current form.
Dunkirk - 3 starts - 111.2 / 135.2
Papa Clem - 6 starts - 111.4 / 136.3
Mine That Bird - 8 starts - 110.1 / 136.4