A Simplistic View Of Dive Fatality Risk
by
Larry "Harris" Taylor, Ph.D.
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A number of years ago, I decided to
increase the amount of life insurance I carried. This necessitated filling out a
risk form. To my dismay, scuba diving was listed in the same category as
professional stock car racing and Brahma bull riding. After my form was
processed, the insurance company that I had been with for more than 20 years
wanted to add an additional $400 per year surcharge for my diving activities.
Since I had never ridden a bull,
either above or below the surface of the water, I objected to the high-risk
label. I called my insurance broker with the following argument.
There are at most (since fatality
statistics have been kept) about 150 fatalities per year in scuba diving in the
US. Assume a worst case of 160 deaths.
No one knows for sure how many people
dive. I have heard the people in scuba marketing suggest that 1 % of the US
population were divers, so assume the diving population is about 2,668,481
people.
No one knows for sure how many dives
each diver makes per year. A number of years ago, Skin Diver magazine stated the
average diver dives 12 times per year.
Putting these together:
This is approximately 5 Deaths per 1, 000, 000 dives. This corresponds to a risk of 1 death per 200,000 dives.
Thus, the approximate risk of dying
while scuba diving is 1 in 200,000 every time I enter the water. This, to me,
is an acceptable risk! It also suggests to me that I possibly might be safer underwater than
driving to the dive site. But then again, almost anything is safer than driving
on American highways.
Obviously, these numbers are “soft.”
No one really knows the denominator … how many divers there are and how often
each dives. I would hope that there are both more divers and more dives/ diver.
In this case, the risk is even smaller. But the precise risk will most likely
never be known.
The above numerical argument, coupled
with a statement of lifestyle (many aerobic activities, no smoking, a list of
diving certifications, etc.) convinced my insurance agent to reconsider. He not
only revoked the “diving is dangerous” surcharge, but also ended up giving me
a “preferred customer” rate.
Some insurance agencies will not
accept these numbers. However, some are willing to consider this argument and
evaluate divers on a case-by-case basis.
So, if you are branded a Brahma bull riding, stock car driving, bungee
cord jumping, ultra-light piloting, death defying diver by your insurance
company, try convincing them that their Hollywood impressions of our sport are
not consistent with reality. You might get a break. I did!
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About The Author:
Larry "Harris" Taylor, Ph.D. is a biochemist and Diving Safety Coordinator at the University of Michigan. He has authored more than 100 scuba related articles. His personal dive library (See Alert Diver, Mar/Apr, 1997, p. 54) is considered one of the best recreational sources of information In North America.
Acknowledgement
Thanks
to Mike Sellmer of Long Beach, California for checking my math!
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Use of these articles for personal or organizational profit is specifically denied.
These articles may be used for not-for-profit diving education