Terrorism Trends and Threats 

• Who are the international terrorists?

• What are their motives and how do they get their support?

• How can we stop them?

The answers to these questions have changed significantly over the last 25 years. There are dramatically fewer international terrorist incidents than in the mid-eighties. Many of the groups that targeted America’s interests, friends, and allies have disappeared. The Soviet bloc, which once provided support to terrorist groups, no longer exists. Countries that once excused terrorism now condemn it. This changed international attitude has led to 12 United Nations conventions targeting terrorist activity and, more importantly, growing, practical international cooperation. However, if most of the world’s countries are firmer in opposing terrorism, some still support terrorists or use terrorism as an element of state policy. Iran is the clearest case. The Revolutionary Guard Corps and the Ministry of Intelligence and Security carry out terrorist activities and give direction and support to other terrorists. The regimes of Syria, Sudan, and Afghanistan provide funding, refuge, training bases, and weapons to terrorists. Libya continues to provide support to some Palestinian terrorist groups and to harass expatriate dissidents, and North Korea may still provide weapons to terrorists. Cuba provides safe haven to a number of terrorists. Other states allow terrorist groups to operate on their soil or provide support which, while falling short of state sponsorship, nonetheless gives terrorists important assistance. The terrorist threat is also changing in ways that make it more dangerous and difficult to counter. International terrorism once threatened Americans only when they were outside the country. Today international terrorists attack us on our own soil.

General and International

            As predicted by the U.S. Department of State and Israeli government, terrorist activity throughout the world has increased in frequency and intensity. Over five hundred acts have been perpetrated in the Middle East alone during the past few years. The worldwide threat from terrorism is mainly from groups that fall into three categories: organized, impromptu, and crazies. Terrorism can be also classified by political inclination: leftist, ethnic, and rightist. Groups have been identified in other parts of this module.

            First, let us take a look at trends. Transnational criminal activities are growing in every region of the world as organized criminal groups take advantage of the lowering of political and economic barriers, societies in transition, and modern telecommunications, technology, and business practices that facilitate legitimate international commerce.  Indeed, organized crime groups are moving aggressively into the legitimate economies of many countries as business owners, undermining opportunities for legitimate entrepreneurs and foreign investors, including US businessmen.

            Drug trafficking Mafias in many countries are increasingly sophisticated and flexible in their operations and are expanding production and trafficking routes.  Although cocaine and heroin will remain major narcotics threats, the production and distribution of new drugs are becoming a significantly greater problem.

            The smuggling of illegal aliens is a thriving business worldwide.  Alien smuggling rings in Latin America and Asia are not as highly organized as drug trafficking groups, but they work in close association with other smugglers and corrupt public officials.

            Although organized crime groups appear to be only peripherally involved in the gray arms market which is dominated by freelance brokers, corrupt exporters, and import front companies conflicts in the Balkans and in the former Soviet Union have encouraged Italian and Russian criminal organizations in particular to expand their involvement in arms trafficking.

            As criminal organizations grow in sophistication and expand their networks, they could become increasingly involved in supporting proliferation and terrorist activities.  Their networks and mechanisms for illicit financial deals could also make them greater players in international sanctions violations. The growing complexity and connectivity of the international financial system offer significant new opportunities for criminal organizations to hide the source of illicit funds, to invest in legitimate enterprises, and to engage in more sophisticated financial fraud schemes.  Although there has been no reliable information to date that any criminal group has attempted to manipulate international financial or commodities markets, the potential threat and implications are significant.

            Next, we examine the impact of these trends internationally. Although criminal groups rarely organize politically, they can and do gain considerable power over political and economic systems through corruption, intimidation, and the economic influence they exercise.  Public perceptions that government cannot cope with the power and influence of criminal organizations or provide citizens and legitimate businesses security from criminal predators can erode support for national institutions and economic and political reform. Nowhere is this more apparent than in Russia, where Russian media polls consistently indicate that Russians regard organized crime as their country's most serious problem, with many believing the "mafia" has more power than the political leadership or bureaucracy.  The intermingling of the political, economic, and criminal sectors that dominate Russian society undermines the credibility of political and economic reform and encourages support for hard line, antidemocratic, anti-reform politicians.  Russian criminal groups have significant influence in strategic sectors of the economy like the oil and metal industries through high-level political corruption and protection.  They are infiltrating financial institutions, disrupting privatization programs, and deterring foreign investment.  Not only is this hurting the Russian economy but also organized crime is making it more difficult for US businessmen to operate in Russia.  The Russian military's criminal connections threaten the security of nuclear weapons and materials and continue to sap military preparedness.

            Finally, one must consider the expanding criminal networks and cooperation existing between criminal and terrorist groups. The problem of international organized crime is much more urgent than in the past because criminal organizations are becoming increasingly sophisticated and international in the scope of their activities.  Russian criminal organizations are expanding their power and influence outside the borders of the former Soviet Union.  Foreign criminal organizations particularly Russian and Italian crime groups are taking advantage of the political and economic transition in central and eastern Europe to establish new bases for money laundering and for transnational criminal activities like drugs, arms, and alien smuggling.  Nigerian criminal cells in countries around the world are engaged in narcotics trafficking and significant financial fraud activities. Meanwhile, criminal organizations are increasingly cooperating to broaden the reach and scope of their activities.  The Colombian drug mafia and Italian organized crime groups have long collaborated in developing the West European cocaine market.  Russian and Italian criminal organizations are cooperating in narcotics trafficking in Eastern and Central Europe.  Asian and Latin American criminal groups cooperate in facilitating the transit of illegal aliens into the United States.  Cooperation among criminal groups that is now primarily tactical in nature may become more comprehensive, with groups sharing information, services, resources, and markets according to the principles of supply and demand and comparative advantage.            

Terrorism and Trends in the United States  

            Terrorism in the U.S. is  a critical problem. This section deals with both domestic and externally sourced U.S. terrorism as well as those acts of hostage taking and execution of hostages related more to the criminal act. But whether the taking of hostages and the burden of terror on those hostages as well as all of us who read about it or see it on television are done by a political or criminal terrorist, the effects are quite similar. And while the criminal element is probably less severe in numbers of deaths or wounded, they are sometimes worse in terms of fear generation than a political terrorist act. For the political terrorist acts incites anger and a desire for revenge, thus seems to make the resolution of the trauma easier to deal with. But all forms of domestic violence serve to remind us of how effective a truly large-scale political terrorist act could be.

            So far, the kinds of terrorism seen in Paris, London, and Munich have not reached into the American life. We have experienced a much more devastating type.

            Because of the low number of external terrorist influences in the U.S., occasionally a violent action will cause the press to jump to the conclusion that some insidious group from outside the U.S has mounted a terrorist attack. A prime example is a domestic bombing of the van of Naval Capt. Will Rogers III, the former Captain of the U.S.S. Vincennes. The Vincennes is an Aegis equipped U.S. Navy warship that mistakenly shot down an Iranian airliner during the Iran Iraq war. The press jumped to the conclusion that this was a terrorist bombing in reprisal for the Vincennes action over a year earlier. When facts surfaced to clearly dispute the terrorist story, the press screamed of a cover up and that the government didn't want to alarm the families of U.S. servicemen. No other reprisals or attacks against U.S. serviceman at home occurred during that troublesome period.

            A similar error in the press was promulgated in the early days of investigation of the Oklahoma City Federal Building bombing...reports surfaced that the events were a direct attack by some terrorist organization outside the U.S. But only three months afterward, it was pretty clear the explosion was the act of internal terrorists, perhaps part of an anti_government "militia" organization.

            Therefore one must be careful not to jump to conclusions about terrorists until the evidence is in, and well after the heat of the moment has passed.  

Political Acts  

            The U.S. hasn't seen as much political violence as her European Allies. But we have had our share. From the Symbonese Liberation Front, the Weatherman to others like ACT in Philadelphia. But these domestic terrorist acts haven't been as random and terror inciting as say the IRA, whose wholesale slaughter of innocent children is untouched by any other terrorist group in world history. But the U.S. will not continue to be immune to larger scale and more identifiable terrorist acts. Witness the World Trade Center explosion, as perhaps the first in a series of external terrorist activities gaining widespread visibility in the U.S., a politically motivated attack on random victims, intended to incite fear as well as add an external terrorist signature to an act of violence as well as proclaim a political message. But terrorism in the U.S. is not limited to terrorists with external agendas. Witness the attack on the federal building in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma. The terrorists in this case appear to be paramilitary survivalist from Michigan, angry with the U.S. government over the "Waco Massacre" (David Koresh).            

Violence  

            The United States has not escaped the terror of extreme violence. Anyone who lived during prohibition will tell you about the effects of the gangs and mobsters upon society. Gruesome and bloody deaths traumatize all who witness them, either directly in person or vicariously via our incredibly timely and accurate media coverage of today. Witness the University Bar in Berkeley, CA., where a deranged gunman held Berkeley students hostage forcing sexual acts between male and female students as well as with himself before killing several and wounding still others. The community watched the deaths of very identifiable victims on their television screens. Such was the community trauma that the local television stations, which were part of the traumatic events themselves, apologized for their lack of sensitivity. These stations later broadcast telephone numbers for those in the community who needed counseling following the unprecedented news coverage.

            The single, seemingly random killer has been extraordinary in his or her ability to strike terror into communities. Perhaps the cause is due to the unpredictability and the randomness itself. "It could have been anyone I know" seems to incite the fear of the community in strangers, minorities or just people who are a little different.

            From killings at a McDonalds restaurant, to the University Bar, to Asian gang violence in Sacramento, California, it is clear that all forms of violence are becoming more and more terror inciting.  

Cultism Continues To Grow  

            People thought Jim Jones and his followers had made cults very unpopular. This may be true. But several instances from Oregon to Texas have made the cult a very visible, violent event generator in the last few years of the twentieth century. It seems that some cults, while preaching non secular means for finding their own peace, also tend to arm themselves against the legal authorities. In both the Oregon and Texas cases, this armament consisted of high power, automatic or semiautomatic weapons. In Waco, Texas, the Koresh followers opened fire through doors and covered windows to kill agents of the Alcohol, Tobacco, and Firearms agency. After counting their wounded the ATF admitted they had simply been "outgunned".  

Evaluating Threat  

            The Emergency Response & Research Institute (ERRI) has developed a new computer generated tool for reporting both international and domestic terrorism, and projecting anticipated acts directed against the United States.

            The ERRI "prediction chart" is based on a database of twelve (12) years of accumulated data on terrorist incidents that have occurred throughout the world. Current data is updated on a daily basis. The program attempts to make predictions based on modeling and tracking of trends that have precipitated violent acts in the past. Additionally, human analysis of current data, as it is entered, allows it to be given greater or lesser weight in the overall determination of future threat levels.  The system, begun in 1995, has been fairly accurate in anticipating times when the likelihood of an extremist act is increased.

            It is well to remember that the terrorist can strike anywhere, anytime, and anybody. The targets range from cars to buildings, electrical systems to computer nets, and most of all people.

Amber waves of targets
By Dennis Dunivan – Washington Times - July 10, 2002

     Much has been made of the United States' vulnerability to terrorist attack since the horrific acts of September 11th. There have been many legitimate concerns raised in subsequent months about the methods and means of possible ongoing terrorism, ranging from suicide bombers to radiological weapons of mass destruction. One very real threat, however, has been largely overlooked — until now.
     The National Academy of Sciences (NAS) has just released "Making the Nation Safer: The Role of Science and Technology in Countering Terrorism." This comprehensive report underscores the fact that U.S. agriculture, and hence the U.S. food supply, is very susceptible to terrorist attack. The report comes on the heels of a June 17 article in The Washington Post, which noted that the Soviet Union had developed a large-scale "anti-livestock" and "anti-agriculture" bio-weapons program in the 1970s. Unlike the post-Soviet nuclear program, however, the pathogens and chemicals developed as part of this bio-weapons program have not been closely monitored by authorities.
     Initially, one might immediately think of hoof and mouth and mad cow disease as possible pathogens that could be introduced by terrorists into American livestock. While the NAS report addresses the issue of livestock disease, it notes that crops are potentially more vulnerable.
     Why is this? As the NAS report outlines, there are several factors. First of all, selective growing has reduced the genetic diversity of major crops such as corn and wheat, making them more susceptible to disease. Second, there are countless foreign crop pathogens that have never been seen here that could be easily introduced into the United States. Third, much of our seed comes from overseas, providing terrorists an opportunity to impregnate crops with pathogens or toxins before germination. Finally, our croplands are so vast that they are not easy to monitor.
     The insidious aspect of this form of terrorism is that it is not readily recognizable. While an attempt to blow up an airliner or breach a nuclear power plant is quickly seen as a terrorist act, the introduction of pathogens or toxins into our food supply may not become obvious until billions of dollars of crops are lost or until countless people are sick from something they have eaten. Even if terrorists are only moderately successful at attacking our crops, the residual fear of tainted food could have vast economic implications for U.S. agriculture.
     The point of the report, however, is not to raise concerns for the sake of raising concerns. The NAS report suggests utilizing expertise outside of the Department of Homeland Security, such as at the Department of Agriculture (USDA), to identify risks that may exist within the agriculture sector. We are aware that the USDA has been actively analyzing new technologies in an effort to develop the most comprehensive and integrated programs possible. In addition, by the USDA working in tandem with the commercial sector, farmers and universities, as well as state and local governments, and other federal agencies, effective partnerships can keep an eye out for terrorist activity on the ground, in the air and from space.
     Informal groups composed of business and academia, such as the Partnership for Agricultural Security (PAS), are already here and ready to help. The report makes several well-informed recommendations regarding proper courses of action. For example, it suggests the use of satellite-based remote sensing, similar to technology used for weather satellites, to monitor crops for possible pathogen outbreaks and toxin exposure. PAS sees this technology as the crucial link to allow the government to routinely monitor wide expanses of cropland in a cost-effective manner. More importantly, this technology would help our nation's farmers and crop consultants to better monitor their own fields for any natural or man-made outbreaks. However, the key to this technology's effectiveness is based on satellites capable of providing wide-area coverage with high resolution and frequent flyovers. American companies are beginning to have success with high-resolution commercial satellite systems, but these systems do not yet have the revisits needed to monitor crops.
     While new commercial systems are coming on line to fill this need, we can use existing government-owned satellites, such as Landsat 7, to begin addressing this threat today. Though we could obtain imagery from foreign sources, reliance on foreign-owned satellites will not provide the national security our homeland defense requires. To meet the needs outlined in the NAS report, it is prudent that commercial ventures be given leeway by the federal government to move forward aggressively in the development of these new and vital technologies.
     The NAS report contains sound analysis and recommendations, but informed proposals are not enough. While we are starting to see movement at the state and federal levels to address these issues, much more needs to be done. Like transportation before it, agriculture has an Achilles' heel. If we choose to ignore it, as we did with transportation, it could be lethal. However, if we are serious and proactive, we can take our food supply off of the terrorists' menu of options. Our very means of life depend on it.
     
     • Dennis Dunivan is the director of the Partnership for Agricultural Security. E-mail dennis@agrisecure.org.

Terrorist Threat Conditions in US

Low Condition (Green). This condition is declared when there is a low risk of terrorist attacks. Federal departments and agencies should consider the following general measures in addition to the agency-specific Protective Measures they develop and implement:

Refining and exercising as appropriate preplanned Protective Measures;

Ensuring personnel receive proper training on the Homeland Security Advisory System and specific preplanned department or agency Protective Measures; and

Institutionalizing a process to assure that all facilities and regulated sectors are regularly assessed for vulnerabilities to terrorist attacks, and

all reasonable measures are taken to mitigate these vulnerabilities.

Guarded Condition (Blue). This condition is declared when there is a general risk of terrorist attacks. In addition to the Protective Measures taken in the previous Threat Condition, Federal departments and agencies should consider the following general measures in addition to the agency-specific Protective

Measures that they will develop and implement:

Checking communications with designated emergency response or command locations;

Reviewing and updating emergency response procedures; and

Providing the public with any information that would strengthen its ability to act appropriately.

Elevated Condition (Yellow). An Elevated Condition is declared when there is a significant risk of terrorist attacks. In addition to the Protective Measures taken in the previous Threat Conditions, Federal departments and agencies should consider the following general measures in addition to the Protective

Measures that they will develop and implement:

Increasing surveillance of critical locations;

Coordinating emergency plans as appropriate with nearby jurisdictions;

Assessing whether the precise characteristics of the threat require the further refinement of preplanned Protective Measures; and

Implementing, as appropriate, contingency and emergency response plans.

High Condition (Orange). A High Condition is declared when there is a high risk of terrorist attacks. In addition to the Protective Measures taken in the previous Threat Conditions, Federal departments and agencies should consider the following general measures in addition to the agency-specific Protective

Measures that they will develop and implement:

Coordinating necessary security efforts with Federal, State, and local law enforcement agencies or any National Guard or other appropriate armed forces organizations;

Taking additional precautions at public events and possibly considering alternative venues or even cancellation;

Preparing to execute contingency procedures, such as moving to an alternate site or dispersing their workforce; and

Restricting threatened facility access to essential personnel only.

Severe Condition (Red). A Severe Condition reflects a severe risk of terrorist attacks. Under most circumstances, the Protective Measures for a Severe Condition are not intended to be sustained for substantial periods of time. In addition to the Protective Measures in the previous Threat Conditions, Federal departments and agencies also should consider the following general measures in addition to the agency-specific Protective Measures that they will develop and implement:

Increasing or redirecting personnel to address critical emergency needs;

Assigning emergency response personnel and pre-positioning and mobilizing specially trained teams or resources;

Monitoring, redirecting, or constraining transportation systems; and

Closing public and government facilities.