Mobilization Issues and Trends

1. Persistent, continuing issues.

a. Conflicting guidance issued by various branches of government.

(1) Congress has often taken the lead in directions opposite to that of the executive branch.

(2) Department of Defenses has pushed policies contrary to overall mobilization policy such as forcing the divestiture of Government-owned equipment and facilities.

(3) Departments of Commerce and Treasury have often pushed policies that are at variance with the overall goals of mobilization.

(b) Requirements must be clear and simply stated if industry and government agencies are to comply.

(1) Industry has complained that they are not able to get the big picture from the requirements they see.

(2) Requirements fluctuate from year to year.

(3) Roles and missions in a changing world further complicate the issue of clearly stated requirements.

(c) The lack of funds to carry out the established requirements for mobilization frustrates those involved in mobilization and deters the successful accomplishment of those actions directed.

(1) Investment is often made on the basis of immediate payoff rather than long-term.

(2) It is easy to cut or underfund mobilization because this program is not a high visibility one except when it is needed.

(d) Cooperation is necessary between the executive and legislative branches if there is to be consistency in policy, actions, and funding.

(1) There are numerous examples of differences in the views and actions of the executive branch and congress.

(2) Congress has historically favored a warm industrial base, but actions taken by various departments has tended to eradicate congressional desire, and often for good reason.

(3) Agreement will help achieve mobilization aims.

(e) Technology continues to change and at an accelerated rate.

(1) Technology change is not new to the 1990s.

(2) A major problem with maintaining a ready industrial base is that what you are maintaining is often not anywhere near what will be needed to produce the products for the next war.

(2) Accelerated research and development during periods of tension and/or war often result in numerous new systems requiring new technology for manufacture.

(3) Multiplicity of weapons systems such as has been the case during the Korean War and since complicates the simplistic concept of mobilization production of war

(f) The United States believes in a free market economy; therefore, central planning and maintenance of non- competitive industries is foreign to our view.

(1) A warm industrial base concept requires certain industries be maintained for use in mobilization to provide weapons, munitions, and material to U.S. forces in time of war.

(2) The free market view envisions that weapons, munitions, and material should be purchased wherever and from whoever can make that product most efficiently selling at the most competitive price.

(3) The concern is that in a major, global war, suppliers may be a potential enemy and thus dry up a source of supply when most needed.

2. Current issues.

(a) A change has been taking place in the economies of the nations of the world as each tend to meld into the other in the growing establishment of a world -wide economy, or globalization as some call it.

(1) Many products such as automobiles are the product of many countries.

(2) Internationalization of national industries has resulted in production of goods in the country that can produce it the most efficiently; thus national industries do not maintain production facilities in the country of origin unless efficient.

(3) Contracts awarded to local and national suppliers may be filled by foreign sources due to cooperative co-production agreements.

(4) The number of firms doing business with the Department of Defense has declined from 120,000 to 40,000 during the past 8 years during a time of heavy military buildup.

(5) The U.S. has become a country favored by foreign investors; thus, foreign investment has a major impact upon the roll-over of government debt as well as financing industry.

(6) The economies of many countries such as Taiwan continue to grow providing competition and in many cases market dominance in certain areas; thus, U.S. firms in competition falter in the marketplace.

(b) The cold war appears to have ended causing speculation by many as to the need for mobilization in the future.

(1) Nuclear arms reductions generally tend to make conventional capabilities more important.

(2) Easing of East-West tensions reduces the probability of war.

(3) As of this date, the USSR has not converted defense industry to civilian production.

(4) Threats exist in many areas other that military action and from many sources such as inadvertent nuclear incidents, terrorist nuclear incidents, drug cartel induced military actions, etc.

(5) Whenever the USSR converts part of its defense industry to civilian production, the USSR will require additional time to prepare for a major conflict; thus warning time for a conventional conflict would be increased over that which has existed.

(6) If the world situation is such that immediate investments in deterrence or standing forces are not judged necessary, investments in long range research and development and industrial capacity appear to make sense.

3. National Mobilization Trends.

(a) Prospects of reduction of nuclear weapons continues to improve.

(b) The growth of conventional arms is not likely.

(d) Funding for research and development will decline.

(e) Force structure will decline.

(f) There will be greater dependence on foreign suppliers.

(g) The trend toward integration of western economies with that of the U.S. will continue.

(h) East European economies will require both assistance in money and technology and integration into the West.

(i) Mobilization needs to address a complete spectrum of actions to provide readiness against a variety of threats from many sources.