Simply put, the state party is a mess.  The past few years have brought to the surface many fractures between the party elites, and between the county parties and the state organization.  This past state wide elections put proof to this situation, and showed the party to be in chaos, with no clear leadership or focus.

 

At the very top of the party, we lack clear and capable leadership.  The man who should be running the show, State Senator Joe Bruno, is mired in a federal investigation into his outside business, which has hampered his ability to take the reigns as he should.  Outside of Sen. Bruno, there isn't anyone else who take fill the role as our party's state leader.  The few who could, are limited by lack of recognition beyond their constituencies, or by personal spats which plagued the primary process in 2006.  We need someone to step up and take control of the pary, and put to rest (by any means necessary) all of these petty disputes and personality conflicts.

 

So, what's the party to do?  As I already said, we need a firm hand at the top.  Someone who can get everybody back on the same page, and end the chaos and strife within the party.  That's step one.  Once we have capable leadrship, we can as a party move on to more problem resolutions.

 

The electoral results from 2006 showed that the party base is still there, and still strong, especially upstate.  The problems of the 06 election were of a varied nature.  In state elections, for Assembly, State Senate, and statewide offices (Governor, AG, Comptroller), was that the issues were not about what's good for the state of NY, or for the various districts, but about larger national politics.  This I believe to be a disservice to the state of NY.  There were several candidates for the GOP who were defeated (often by slim margins), not because of their effectiveness as a candidate, but because of national politics which colored local elections far more that it ever should have.  Even so, in far too many cases, the GOP either ran a "sacraficial lamb" in districts with strong Democratic Machines, or "bad" candidates who got their nominations as a reward for other services, which put off not only Independents, but GOP rank and file.  This practice has to stop.  As a party, we must make a concerted effort to put forth the best possible candiate for any given office. 

 

The State wide races illustrate this all too well unfortunately.  Chris Callaghan, the GOP candiate for Comptroller, had so many strikes against him going in, that I find it amazing that he did as well as he did.  Yes, he had "chauffer gate" to help him out, but his lack of state wide recognition, his lack of experience, and his inability to look comfortable in front of a TV camera all hurt him more.  The inability to convey a clear and forward thinking plan for the Comptroller's office also kept many voters from seeing him as a legitimate challenger to Alan Hevesi.

 

In the AG race, Jeanine Pirro was the best qualified candidate.  Now, as I see it, her nomination was a bit of a pay off for dropping out of the US Senate race, but I feel she should never have been in that race to begin with.  Now while Pirro was the best qualified candidate, she too brought far too much baggage to the campaign.  Her marital troubles, combative demeanor, and questionable personal decisions all served to hurt her candidacy for AG.  She should have been able to whip Andrew Cuomo, but bungled her camapign, and was all too often on the defensive about her past. 

 

In the race for governor, it was all but a foregone conclusion before the ink was dry on the nominating forms.  Elliot Spitzer had everything going for him.  He was a popular AG, had cross party support, a huge war chest for the campaign, and is rather charismatic, and will buck his own party on issues.  For the GOP we had John Faso.  Now, I've been a supporter of John (if quietly) for many years, from his time as an Assemblyman from Kinderhook, through his run for Comptroller back in 02.  As much as I like John, he is not Gubenatorial material.  He just isn't charismatic enough as a leader, or as an adminsitrator for this type of office.  His strength lies in being a legislator, and a legislative leader.  I think that he did a disservice to himself, and the party did a disservice to him by backing his run for Governor.  I'd love to see John get back in the game, preferably as the GOP candidate for the 20th Congressional district.  This I believe would regain the seat for the GOP, and prime John Faso for a future Senate run.

 

So, we have a problem at the top of the party.  So what's to be done?  First off, we need to bring together all the main factional leaders.  No single person is in the forefront right now, so having a committee to run things for now is a temporary solution.  This would allow the party to bring together upstate, downstate, Long Island, and City leaders of the GOP.  I would also beg, plead, and cajole some past leaders to take a hand.  We should look to people like Jack Kemp, Massachusettes transplant Bill Weld, Edward Cox, and even Senator Pot-hole, Al d'Amatao.  The various county chairs and parties will also need to have much more representation in rebuilding the party from within.

 

We also need a victory.  Something significant, but need not be anything spectacular.  So, I'd beg, plead, whine, and cajole Rudy Guiliani to drop his presidential run, and instead turn to taking on Chuck Schumer for the US Senate.  Not only would this be a very energetic and active campaign, but would represent the best chance for the GOP to win a state wide office, and re-energize the party rank and file.  It would also clear up the GOP presidential race. 

 

This would also begin step two, bringing the best qualified and most electable candidates to the fore of the party.  As I illustarted above, all too often, the best cadidate is not nominated.  This hurts the party severely.  The GOP ends up losing races it should win, and at times brings disrepute to the party.  We simply cannot afford this anymore.  As a part of this step, the GOP needs to get better campaign managers.  In several races in 06, there were too many instancs where campaigns were mismanaged, or failed to meet the challenges of the campaigns.  No where was this more eveident than in the 20th Congressional race.

 

Once steps one and two are "in place," it becomes time expand and broaden the party base.  Now, in my opinion, this should have been done years ago, but what's done is done.  But we as a party need to reach out more, beyond the "traditional" pary base.  We, as a party, should be encouraging more minority membership, more minority leadership, and reaching across all social boundaries (religious, ethnic, racial, and economic).  We need to attack and bring down the public impression (as wrong as it is), of being a party of exlusivity and elitism.  The core values of the GOP do resonate among groups that are not "traditional" supporters of the GOP.  This party, and what its stands for, should be making significant gains among the various minority groups (regardless of who they may be).  Yet, due to public perception, and media pundits, we get labeled as the exact opposite.  We need a concerted effort to reverse this.

 

This all is not going to happen overnight, or even in time for the 2008 elections.  But if we can start this process now, or in the very near future, we can aim for 2010, and be ready for a major run in 2012.  Of course this means that many in leadership positions will need to set aside their personal ambitions and squabbles for the good of the party, and the good of the State of NY.  I will do my bit to lobby for this, but only time will tell.

 

So the results are more or less in the books.  In something of a surprise, the two main "hard line" parties, The Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) and Sinn Fein (SF), have increased their vote shares.  The shock wasn't so much that their vote shares increased, but that they significantly increased their setas in the Assembly.  So, much like when power sharing previously collapsed, they stand in position to take the reigns of power, with Ian Paisley as First Minister, and Martin McGuinness as Deputy. 

 

The DUP is continuing to hedge its bets.  It knows that much of its vote tallies are defections from the Ulster Unionist Party (UUP), and are based solely on their hard line stance against the Republicans.  So they have to posture for the electorate on one hand, and posture for London, Dublin, and the international community on the other.  Given Ian Paisley's 40+ year history of ultra-Unionism, agitation, and anti-Catholic diatribes, it is most likely that he'll pander to the electorate, and eventually scuttle the Assembly on some trumped up charge, or weak accusation.

 

This is not to say that Sinn Fein will not have to live up to some of its obligations.  Paisley has already made clear that he will use the policing issue as his litmus test for SF.  With the long history of collusion between the RUC (now the PSNI) and the loyalist paramilitaries, it will take much more than just a commitment from SF to support the PSNI to see any real movement on the ground.  The PSNI will have to reciprocate what ever moves SF makes if they intend to get anywhere in places like Andersontown or the Falls Road.

 

All in all, this may be the best chance for Northern Ireland.  Yes, it's been said before.  Heck, I've said it before.  Still, if the DUP can get over itself, and Paisley's ego, to work with Sinn Fein in government, it could propel NI to the next phase.  Eventually, the referendum on NI future will take place, which may result in reunification with the Republic.  That won't happen anytime soon though.  The Assembly will have to show itself capable of running the local aspects of the Six Counties, and in maintaining the peace. 

 

The hardest thing will be maintaining peace.  The two biggest threats are not the IRA or the loyalist paramilitaries, but the Republican dissidents and the hardliners of the DUP.  The Republican dissidents are probably the least of the threats, relatively speaking.  Even though they get "moral" support from disaffected Republican sympathizers, their capabilities of acting have been severely hampered since Omagh.  The DUP hardliners however, are still in a very strong position to "rouse the mob."  Oh they'll keep their hands clean, just like Paisley did for so long.  But from their pulpits and soap boxes they'll encourage others to do their dirty work.  That is where the real danger lies, not in the gunmen, but in the demogogues. 

 

So it becomes a waiting game.  The players are all arranged, and the pieces set.  When the Assembly actually takes their seats, we'll see who makes the first move, and what the consequences are.

 

As as NYer (an Upstater to be sure), it will inevitably be asked why I don't support Rudy Giuliani's 2008 bid.  It's not because I don't think he's not qualified (he is), but that I feel his campaign is misguided at this time, and he doesn't represent enough of the core party ideals for a national office.  I have great concerns with Rudy on his positions on the Second Amendement, and abortion.  I also feel that Rudy lacks some key experience for becoming President at this time, his lack of combat experience, and lack of in depth foreign policy experience I feel at this time makes him not the right man.

 

This is not to say that I wouldn't support Rudy in a run for another office, or support him for a cabinet position.  In my opinion, I would much rather see Rudy run again for the Senate here in NY, most preferably against Chuck Schumer.  We need Rudy here in NY.  We need a Republican candidate for State wide office that the party can get behind, that has the clout to get the press, has the charisma to lead, and can win against the Democratic machines in many NY cities.