Revised

Y1K: "Flee to the mountains... pray that your flight may not be in winter "

By Diana Christopulos

As the year 2000 approaches, it might be worth remembering that the year 1000 (Y1K) also evoked excitement, fear and hope in the Western world. Modern scholars generally reject the idea that mass hysteria prevailed at the start of the second millennium. Nevertheless, Christian tradition provides plenty of food for apocalyptic thought, and thousand-year anniversaries lend themselves to such thinking. This article examines what is known about Y1K and what lessons can be learned from that era. It includes a framework for appropriate leadership responses to Y2K and a report card for political, corporate and religious leadership on the quality of their reactions to date.

Note: This article originally appeared in the electronic journal Infrastructure in January 1999. Diana Christopulos holds all copyrights and grants permission to reproduce or quote the article for educational or training purposes as long as you provide correct attribution. The full article is 15 to 20 pages long, depending on your browser and printer.

The predicted sequence of events

Timing: when will it happen?

What actually happened

Y1K lessons for Y2K

TABLE 1. GOSPEL OMENS AND THE YEAR 1000

TABLE 2. RESPONSES TO THE YEAR 2000 ISSUE

Imagine a world in which the vast majority of the population is poor and illiterate. In this world, even kings and princes usually go through life without being able to sign their names. Virtually the only literate people are priests, monks, and nuns. The perceived nature of truth is very different than in 1999: the scientific thinking of ancient Greeks has been rejected in favor of divine revelation and pure logic. While the Arabs have the mathematical concept of zero and the symbols we use today for numbers, Christians are stuck with Roman numerals. Technology and manufacturing have declined since the end of the Roman Empire. Paper, for example, is in such short supply that monks are in the habit of painting over Greek and Roman manuscripts, replacing scientific thought and histories with the lives of minor Christian saints. The Catholic Church, based in Rome, and the Orthodox Church, based in Constantinople, are already over 600 years old, a sign of durable infrastructures. This was Europe in the year 999. For hundreds of years, the best Christian thinkers had used scriptural sources and logical thinking to predict an event mentioned repeatedly in the New Testament: the second coming of Christ. If taken literally, these predictions would mean the end of the world, and of both churches.

In the year 1999, both the Catholic and the Orthodox churches are still around, testimony to the importance of strong mission statements, clever politics, and effective use of symbolism in maintaining infrastructure. The perceived nature of truth has, however, shifted radically. Applied science is in the saddle. In this digital, virtual world, the average computer user (like this writer) might be likened to the average believer in 999. The modern literati read and write languages like COBOL, Java, and HTML. They are having an argument about what will happen around the year 2000. And, as in the year 1000, some of the less traditional Christians are joining in. What are we to think?

The predicted sequence of events

The Christian Bible contains numerous references to a final judgment day, distinguishing it from most of the older Middle Eastern and Egyptian religions. The earliest Christians believed that the end of the world would come very soon, probably in their own lifetimes. Similarly, many tenth century Europeans believed they were living in the Last Age before the return of Christ, not the Middle Ages of modern usage. The New Testament and other early Christian sources predict a specific sequence of events at the end of the world:

Omens and portents
A thousand years of peace on earth (the millennium)
A great battle between the armies of Christ and Satan
The Last Judgment

All of these works are the products of Jewish and Christian political oppression at the hands of Romans and other emperors. They are filled with disguised references to satanic figures (emperors and their minions) that will be overthrown by Christian armies.

Omens and portents:

The gospels of Matthew, Mark, Luke and John list specific signs that the end of the world is near:

Destruction of the great temple in Jerusalem
Wars and rumors of wars, with nation rising against nation
Famines, pestilence and earthquakes
False prophets and lawlessness
Lightening in the east and west, darkening of the sun and moon, falling stars

When all of these things happen, it is time to "flee to the mountains" and "pray that your flight may not be in winter . . ." Since most of these omens (as well as others predicted in the Bible) appear in every age, it is easy to predict the coming of the end.

Arrival of the millennium- good news and bad news.

The notion of a millennium- the return of Christ to rule the earth in peace for a thousand years before a final battle with Satan - appears most clearly in Chapter 20 of the Book of Revelation, which opens with these verses:

1: Then I saw an angel coming down from heaven, holding in his hand the key of the bottomless pit and a great chain.
2: And he seized the dragon, that ancient serpent, who is the Devil and Satan, and bound him for a thousand years,
3: and threw him into the pit, and shut it and sealed it over him, that he should deceive the nations no more, till the thousand years were ended. After that he must be loosed for a little while.

As detailed in Revelation, the millennium includes a lengthy sequence of events:

First, an angel binds Satan for a thousand years (the happy millennium).
At the end of a thousand years, the Devil (the Antichrist) is let loose for a great battle with Christ and his legions (the bad time).
Finally, Christ wins out and judges the living and the dead. The "saved" go on to endless bliss while the condemned suffer an eternity of punishment (the end of time).

Depending on the interpreter, then, the signs and omens could be taken to mean the beginning of a thousand years without Satan on earth (good news), the unleashing of the Devil for a horrible battle (bad news), or final judgement and the end of time (good news if you repent!). Optimists such as Bishop Papias of Hierapolis emphasized the good-news millennium that is reserved for those who are saved:

There will be days in which vines will grow, each with 10,000 branches, and on each branch 10,000 twigs, and on each shoot 10,000 clusters, and on each cluster 10,000 grapes, and each grape will produce 216 gallons of wine...

Hellfire and brimstone preachers focus on the last two eventualities: war against the Antichrist and the Final Judgment.

Reclaiming Jerusalem: the Sibylline Oracles and the Last Emperor

Between the fourth and seventh centuries, new writings offered more detail about the last days. Known as the Sibylline Oracles, these writings were enormously popular in Europe. They were, in part, a reaction against the conquest of Syria by non-Christians, and they outline a series of events at the end of time:

First would come a "time of sorrows," when Christians would be punished for their sins.
Second, the return of the Last Emperor, perhaps some great Christian ruler who had been thought to be dead (in the year 1000, some thought this emperor was Charlemagne, who had died in 814).
Third, defeat of the armies of Gog and Magog by the Last Emperor
Fourth, a pilgrimage of the Last Emperor to Jerusalem
Fifth, a Golden Age (not always mentioned)
Sixth, the appearance of the Antichrist
Seventh, destruction of the Antichrist by heavenly forces
Finally, the Second Coming of Christ and the Last Judgment

A prophetic framework

Taken together, Biblical and pseudo-Christian sources provide imagery for explaining the apocalyptic meaning of events in all ages. For example:

Revelations and the Sibylline Oracles give a framework for labeling enemies (including unpopular rulers) as the Antichrist and heroes as the Last Emperor. This tradition continues today, with Sadam Hussein a popular target.
From a 1999 vantage point, the Viking raids were a reaction to overpopulation enabled by superior shipbuilding and a warrior tradition. Christian monks of the ninth and tenth centuries had a different interpretation. Noting the prows of Viking "dragonships", they believed they were seeing a beast described in Revelation.
Post-Y1K thinkers, especially in America, focus on several additional Biblical sources. One is the Old Testament Book of Daniel, written when the Jews were subject to the Seleucid Empire, a remnant of Alexander the Great's conquests. From the seventh chapter on, Daniel provides a vision as detailed and searing as the Book of Revelation, foretelling the coming of evil beasts, the fall of empires and the end of the world. Another currently popular source is Paul's first epistle to the Thessalonians, describing what modern fundamentalists call The Rapture, the physical ascension of living Christians into the clouds:

16: For the Lord himself shall descend from heaven with a shout, with the voice of the archangel, and with the trumpet of God: and the dead in Christ shall rise first:
17: Then we which are alive and remain shall be caught up together with them in the clouds, to meet the Lord in the air: and so shall we ever be with the Lord.

Because the Bible contains numerous apocalyptic references to the Middle East, virtually any major event (peace treaties, wars, changes in administration) involving Israel or Babylon can be adapted to current millennial predictions. In late 1998, for example, the Dallas Theological Seminary's six-week seminar on "The Road to Armageddon and Beyond" featured topics such as, "Babylon: Iraq and the Coming Middle East Crisis."

Timing: when will it happen?

The Western calendar is a religious artifact, an adaptation of the Roman Julian calendar based on the estimated time since Christ's birth. When the world did not end in the Apostles' lifetimes and Christianity instead became the official religion of the Roman Empire, clerical authors developed new predictions about the coming of the millennium.

Naming the date.

An important source was the Secrets of Enoch, a pre-100 AD writing that was not included in the New Testament. Enoch said that he visited seven of the ten levels of heaven ("seventh heaven"), learning that each day of the Genesis creation was equal to 1,000 years in human time. In addition, he found that time would end after 7,000 years had passed. By consulting the Old Testament, clerics could estimate the time since the creation and predict the end of the world. They did so. A common ninth century expression of these beliefs is found in Nennius' Historia Brittonum, written around 830:

The first age of the world is from Adam to Noah.

The second is from Noah to Abraham.

The third is from Abraham to David.

The fourth is from David to Daniel.

The fifth is from Daniel to John the Baptist.

The sixth is from John to the Judgement,

In which our Lord Jesus Christ

Will come to judge the living and the dead

And the world through fire...

Each time the predicted millennium drew near, millenarian writers would move the date back several hundred years:

Around the year 200, Hippolytus predicted the millennium would begin in the year 500.
By the year 400, Augustine and Jerome had moved the date back to 801.
After the year 800 passed, writers focused on the year 1000. What an appealing date! One thousand years after the birth of Christ and six thousand years after the creation, a new millennium would begin. Or, some said, the great battle between good and evil would begin when the Antichrist was unleashed.
After 1000, the year 1033 was a focus (anniversary of Christ's death).

The official position: the timing cannot be known

Well before the year 1000, the Catholic Church officially opposed the prediction of a specific date for the end of the world. The New Testament and other millennial writings are a mixed blessing for official churches. On the one hand, they make it clear that sin will be punished and that only those who are saved will go to heaven. On the other hand, an overabundance of millennial thinking threatens the established order. Catholic doctrine came to terms with this problem long before Y1K. Writing in the fifth century, St. Augustine established the official church position. He rejected his own earlier belief in a millennium beginning in AD 801 and argued that

The thousand-year rule of Christ will be of the spirit, not on the material earth.
The Judgment Day will come, but its date is unknowable.

Augustine’s solution was ingenious, honoring the biblical sources while building the logical infrastructure for a church that could last indefinitely on this earth.

What actually happened

Historians' debates

Nineteenth century accounts of the year 1000 portray an orgy of church building, funded by kings and lords who feared for their souls. There were heavenly signs and wonders, earthly plagues and famines, with people of all classes praying for salvation as the end approached. A major source for this interpretation was Radulphus Glaber's history of the world, written in the eleventh century. He reported horrible events in the decade before the year 1000:

Eruptions of Mount Vesuvius, spewing rock three miles and poisoning the air with its fumes.
Major fires in almost all the large cities of Italy and France and in St. Peter's church in Rome
A terrible plague [St Anthony's fire, caused by spoiled rye bread].
A great famine in Europe for five years, leading to starvation and cannibalism, during which "grown-up sons devoured their mothers, and mothers, forgetting their maternal love ate their babes."

Until recently, twentieth century historians have taken the opposite position, declaring that 1000 was a year like any other. They note that the written record does not support the idea of widespread concern about the millennium. More recently, historian Richard Landes has asserted that there was a consensus of silence among official church historians, who simply did not write about millennial hysteria because it violated the Augustinian party line. The work of Landes and others shows written evidence for many frightening omens around the year 1000, including destruction of the temple in Jerusalem, warfare, famine, plague, earthquakes, heresies, lawlessness, and signs in the sky (see Table 1).

There was more. Many people believed that Charlemagne was the Last Emperor described in the Sibyllene prophecies and that he had never died. When Charlemagne's last heirs perished (987-91), some feared that the Holy Roman Empire had ended and that the Antichrist would be unleashed. The new emperor, Otto III, took elaborate steps to show that the empire was still intact, including the opening of Charlemagne's monumental tomb on Pentecost of the year 1000. Otto and a companion entered the tomb, sat with the old emperor for a time, clipped his fingernails, repaired his nose, and took one of his teeth as a memento. The companion reported afterward that Charlemagne's body was virtually intact.

Did anybody know what time it was?

Literacy rates were very low in Europe, but churches and their clerical calendars were everywhere. Still, December 31, 999 (or CMXCIX, as it was written at the time) could not have been a day of universal fear in the Christian world. Like the fiscal years of modern corporations, the medieval New Year started on different days in different places:

Italian city-states picked their own dates, with Rome choosing December 25, Florence electing the first day of Spring (March 25), and Venice settling on March 1.
France observed Easter Sunday as New Year's Day
Depending on whether you used the ecclesiastical, civic, or historical calendar, the English New Year fell on December 25, January 1, or March 25.
Different parts of the Byzantine world (Eastern Christianity) observed New Year on September 1 and September 25.

A longer view: expansion of the West

Far from being a time of retrenchment, the Y1K era witnessed a significant expansion of Western European Christianity. After declining by 40 percent or more after the collapse of the Roman Empire (500-650), the European population probably doubled between 650 and 1000 and continued to grow thereafter. As a result, both Christian and non-Christian Europeans expanded into new territories. Many of the Vikings who raided the British Isles between 800 and 1000 stayed to become farmers, populating Scotland, Ireland and England. James Reston, Jr. has shown in his recent work, The Last Apocalypse: Europe at the Year 1000 A.D., that Christians were stemming military threats on three fronts:

Spanish Christians began recapturing territory from the Moors of Northern Africa.
The Magyars of Hungary, who had terrorized Eastern Europe, formally converted to Christianity.
The Vikings of Norway, who had been raiding the British Isles for 200 years, formally converted to Christianity and gradually ceased their raiding.

Millennial hopes and fears around the year 1033 (thousandth anniversary of Christ's death) launched at least two large pilgrimages by people of all ranks and classes to the Holy Land, precursors of the Crusades that would do more damage to the Orthodox Christian Byzantine Empire than to Islam.

More than anything else, the language of the millennium provided powerful symbols for demonizing enemies and justifying conquests.

Y1K lessons for Y2K

The most obvious lesson of Y1K is that some people will preach and others will believe that the end of the world is near. Most of the omens listed in the four Gospels will occur around the year 2000, as they occur every year:

Wars and rumors of wars, with nation rising against nation. This one is always true. For now: Bosnia, Sudan, maybe the Middle East. Others are sure to follow.
Famines, pestilence and earthquakes. Famines in Africa. AIDs. The Y2K bug could contribute directly to hunger and illness if it leads to disruption of food and medical supplies. Potential sites of major earthquakes in the U.S.: California, St. Louis.
False prophets and lawlessness. Many would say that moral decay and lawlessness are already present in the U.S. Potential false prophets: Bill Gates, Bill Clinton.
Lightening in the east and west, darkening of the sun and moon, falling stars. Like war, signs in the sky are always present. Some New Age millennialists predict the world will end with an unusual planetary alignment on April 5, 2000.
Destruction of the great temple in Jerusalem. This one is so specific that it may not happen. Other parts of the Bible, however, provide numerous predictions about the Middle East.

All of the calendar-based arguments for the year 1000 can easily be applied to the year 2000 - or 2033. The Everything 2000 web site, a commercial collection of millennial links, already lists over 30 sites under "Apocalypse."

Otto III may have behaved strangely from a modern perspective, but he did provide leadership in difficult times. Effective leadership will be critical if the real problems associated with the Y2K bug become serious. Taking a page from organizational development, government and opinion leaders might use the lessons of Y1K in four ways to address the issues of Y2K:

Rational arguments. Y2K presents major issues on two fronts: religious and technological. People need facts so that they can make informed decisions. So far, churches and universities have done the best job of presenting the issues. The Catholic Church has done this for centuries on the religious front, echoing St. Augustine's very rational position. During the summer of 1998, the Catholic Archbishop of Milwaukee, Rembert Weakland, warned his flock that, as the year 2000 approaches, "all kinds of people will be telling you that the end of the world is at hand, that all the signs predicted in the Book of Revelation are present." He noted that similar alarms proliferated around the year 1000 based on a literal reading of the scriptures. The archbishop explained that the Catholic Church does not accept the literal reading. There will be a Final Judgment, Weakland assured, but its date is unknown. His advice: "When you receive literature telling you when the end of the world is coming, throw it in the wastebasket. Do not become part of the hysteria that will develop around the year 2,000." Weakland reiterated Augustine's position, saying that the church interprets the 1000 years of the millennium to mean "a long time" that began with Christ's resurrection and that, "We do not know when that day will come." Nevertheless, "We will be judged on the last day, not on the accuracy of our predictions, but on the goodness of our lives."

Universities have generated huge amounts of practical information about the Y2K computer problem, while mainstream churches and governments are saying very little. In the U.S., conservative Christian groups have generally provided more practical advice than mainstream groups, at least on the web. The Christian Coalition discusses Y2K computer issues on its web site with no mention of the end of the world in biblical terms. Instead, articles such as " Y2K: Is This a Serious Computer Crisis?" by Rev. Billy McCormack of the Coalition's Board of Directors discuss the issue in measured terms.

The Joseph Project, organized by Larry Burkett, is "a Christian-led nonprofit, [that] desires to prevent and respond to the potential impacts of the Year 2000 computer problem in a professional and balanced manner - engaging Christians in pro-active personal and professional awareness, preparedness and service, so that they might be ready to bless their neighbors during any potential time of difficulty." Burkett's site offers rational advice with a marketing twist: Christians who are ready for Y2K can bear witness while handing out food and blankets. If there are no massive problems, they can still give away the goods.

Instead of cynically ignoring the problem, rational leaders should be making measured plans to prevent the most dangerous events (such as massive power failures) and mitigate any failures that do occur (regional outages, banking and credit problems, payment of social security, problems with food distribution).

Humane plans. The Y2K problem should be addressed in a humane manner, with special attention to the needs of those who have the fewest resources. Churches have also taken the lead on this front. The Joseph Project, noted above, is one example. Especially outside of the United States, mainstream churches actively endorse specific strategies to help poor countries and individuals as part of the Year 2000 Jubilee.

o In his 1994 apostolic letter on the second millennium, "Tertio Millenio Adveniente," Pope John Paul II called for reduction or abolition of debts owed by third world countries:

If we recall that Jesus came to "preach the good news to the poor" (Mt 11:5; Lk 7:22), how can we fail to lay greater emphasis on the Church's preferential option for the poor and the outcast? Indeed, it has to be said that a commitment to justice and peace in a world like ours, marked by so many conflicts and intolerable social and economic inequalities, is a necessary condition for the preparation and celebration of the Jubilee. Thus, in the spirit of the Book of Leviticus (25:8-12), Christians will have to raise their voice on behalf of all the poor of the world, proposing the Jubilee as an appropriate time to give thought, among other things, to reducing substantially, if not canceling outright, the international debt which seriously threatens the future of many nations.

o The Church of England and over 80 other organizations in 40 countries have organized a Jubilee 2000 Coalition with an agenda that includes " cancellation of the unpayable debts of the world's poorest countries by the year 2000, under a fair and transparent process." Efforts are targeted at the June 1999 G-8 summit and include an e-mail chain letter.

Understanding of the underlying politics. Peoples' behavior around the year 2000 reflects existing political and economic realities. As in the year 1000, the end of the world as we know it is an appealing prospect for people who would prefer a very different kind of world. Early Christianity won adherents from just these people - slaves and others who suffered under the Roman Empire. Belief in the millennium is a sign of hope, not fear. Social science has learned a lot about who joins and leads end-of-the world churches or revolutionary political movements, particularly:

o People whose lives are changing too rapidly are good candidates for fundamentalist religions and conservative revolutions. In the past two centuries, converts have often been people from rural, agricultural settings who came to large cities for factory jobs. At the other end of the spectrum, people who find themselves suddenly rich, perhaps through somewhat unethical means, can be ripe for revival. Modern groups with similar profiles include single mothers, low-income foreign immigrants, and yuppies who neglected their spiritual needs in the 1980s and 1990s. Beyond religion, violent reactions may occur when important groups believe that rapid social and economic change is moving too fast. Islamic revolutionaries in Iran, Pakistan, Algeria and other Muslim countries illustrate a conservative reaction to Westernized economies and societies. Private militias in the United States are largely composed of working class white men, a group that has relatively fewer economic opportunities in an age of globalization, high technology, and federally protected rights for women and minorities.

o People whose lives are changing too slowly are also candidates for revolution. These "revolutions of rising expectations" took place in Russia, Cuba and many African nations during the 20th century. Similarly, second and third generation rural black migrants in cities such as Los Angeles and Detroit rioted in the 1960s, while first generation black migrants in cities like Houston did not. "People power" in the Philippines and Eastern Europe as well as student-led movements in China, Mexico, and Indonesia fit this pattern.

o Leadership for revolutionary movements generally comes from middle or upper class people who become alienated from the existing system. Although hardly revolutionary, the maverick presidential campaign of Ross Perot in 1992 is an interesting example. Perot himself started a successful high tech company (EDS) after leaving both the U.S. Navy and IBM. He turned to politics after selling his company to General Motors, a company he publicly attacked afterwards. Perot's largely white, working class constituency also populates the Christian Right and radical militia groups. As with movements of the left, it includes individuals and groups who imagine a millennium in which they seize power. If such scenarios appear ridiculous, it should be remembered that Lenin, Mussolini and Hitler all seized power in Europe as leaders of distinctly minority factions, all promising a new millennium. The longer the mainstream parties remain focused on trivial infighting, the less political capital they will have to spend in the event of temporary national breakdowns associated with Y2K.

Effective use of symbolism. By its name alone, the year 2000 is a very major anniversary. It is a powerful symbol, with many claimants. So far, advertisers and religious groups own the symbols, with nary a peep from civic or political leaders.Most Americans are interested in millennial ideas. The Dallas Morning News reports surveys showing that:

61 percent of Americans believe Christ will physically return to earth
20 percent think it will happen around the year 2000
49 percent believe that an Antichrist will arise
44 percent believe in The Rapture

"Millennium" and "Year 2000" are marketers' dreams, with new schemes and products appearing every day. A search for the key words "end of the world" produced a list of 584 books (and counting) at Amazon.com. Greenwich, England has already adopted the slogan "The Millennium starts here" (ignoring the international date line) and launched plans to build the Millennium Dome, world's biggest dome, and throw Europe's largest New Year's party where the Meridian Line crosses the River Thames. New York's Times Square promises a bigger party.

Mainstream churches plan a different type of celebration. A coalition of English churches offers the nation an alternative agenda for the Millennium that is "not dependent on domes or worried about computer crashes." These churches plan a symbolic sea of white candles, asking that everyone in England: perform three simple acts in the dying moment of the twentieth century. We will be offered the chance to keep silence for a minute, light a candle, and say a prayer.

The Catholic Church, historically adept at symbolism, has been planning a worldwide observance since November 1994 when Pope John Paul II released an apostolic letter, "Tertio Millenio Adveniente." He called for an ecumenical, evangelizing celebration, with no mention of Revelation or Y1K. Instead, he focused on the Old Testament tradition of Jubilees (50-year celebrations) begun by Pope Boniface VIII in 1300. Jubilee 2000 will be a worldwide event, with perhaps 13 million pilgrims expected in Rome. The Vatican's Jubilee 2000 web page provides all of the details in eight languages (English, French, German, Italian, Latin, Polish, Portuguese, and Spanish). The only mention of computers is their use as a means of better communication throughout and after the Jubilee.

America, land of religious diversity, offers a true smorgasbord of millennial prophecies based on Christian symbolism. While the number of sects may not be increasing, the media attention probably will during the next 18 months. Here is a sampling of the current mass media and Internet crop:

Symbol: THE RAPTURE. John Walvoord, 88-year chancellor of the Dallas Theological Seminary, represents a strong tradition of believing that the signs and omens of the end will include The Rapture - when living Christians will float into the clouds for a reunion with Christ, while the unsaved will remain on earth for seven years of chaos (The Tribulation). Walvoord has published two books about the world's end since 1991, and he frequently speaks on the subject. He is careful to point out that the date of the end is unknowable.
Symbol: NEW AGE OMENS IN THE SKY. Some New Age sites have fixed on April 5, 2000 as a possible world's end, based on unusual planetary alignments. Others, such as Ellie Chrystal's Metaphysical and Science Page (psychic reader, Reiki master, html programmer) simply note that "the end is near" per Biblical prophecies. Of course, the best seller of New Age predictions is James Redfield's Celestine Prophecy, a novel about insights revealed through an ancient Peruvian manuscript that is written in Aramaic, a language of Christ's time.
Symbol: APOCALYPSE NOW. Suicidal sects continue. David Koresh and his Branch Davidians were spiritual heirs of William Miller, who used similar arguments to convince thousands of Northeasterners that the world as they knew it would end in 1844. Others will continue to appear.
Symbols: GUNS AND JESUS. Paramilitary sites abound. God's Undivided Nation, for example, presents the Take It By Force web site, with right wing paramilitary thinking backed up by Biblical quotations.

Whether Christian Right, New Age or paramilitary, the common factors in these sites are that a) they almost always talk about Y2K in the same ways as computer-oriented sites, and b) they almost never predict a specific date for the end of the world.

Grading the responses

If a rational, humane, politically astute, symbolically powerful response to Y2K is appropriate, how are we doing? No one knows for sure, and new stories emerge every day. Table 2 suggests that no one scores well across the board.

Some U.S. government agencies have prepared well, but others have not, and there is little communication with the public. Humane interests are not apparent. Though the government is not scaring people, neither Democrats nor Republicans are providing leadership.
American corporations are expending huge sums on Y2K, but many got a late start, focusing instead on competition within their own industries. Humanitarian concerns are unimportant. Advertising symbolism is evident (new or repackaged products) but planning for potential problems is not. It is hard to know how well-prepared they are, since no company would want to admit having problems.
The American mass media scores lower than any other group. There is little or no rational communication about Y2K - scandal and entertainment are the foci. In 1999, look for "El Nino" style coverage, linking the millennium bug to almost everything in a lighthearted but sensational way.
Like other corporate groups, American high tech leadership is enmeshed in competition within its own industry. Bill Gates and his peers are attacking one another in court rather than talking about what to fear and what not to fear. Individual technical people are the loudest proclaimers of a crisis, but they have little credibility so far, and no one will know how right they are until January 2000. While their disaster scenarios are powerful, their solutions are not always clear or practical.
Religious groups do better - this is their issue. St. Augustine provided the Vatican's rational argument more than a millennium ago, the Pope got started on Jubilee 2000 in 1994, there's a strong humanitarian message, and plans for a huge observance in Rome and around the world. The only missing piece: guidance on what to think about Y2K computer disaster scenarios.
Other mainstream churches, especially in England, have joined in the Jubilee 2000 spirit with similar plans at the national level. In the U.S., however, mainstream churches do not have a clear presence or position on these issues.
Fundamentalist churches in the U.S. know and talk about the Y2K computer issue, albeit in terms that seem irrational to many others. Plans are afoot to stock up on food and other necessities and to save others if needed. This is a chance to gain converts, using the kinds of Biblical omens and signs that were discussed around the year 1000. It is not clear how these groups will celebrate New Year's Eve, but it probably will not be at a large public gathering.

One other lesson from Y1K: the world almost certainly will not come to an end. Whether it will be a time of social chaos or social transformation depends on how leaders and communities respond to what will become, in the end, more a social than a technical problem.

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References

TABLE 1. GOSPEL OMENS AND THE YEAR 1000

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The Gospel omen (from Matthew 24)

What actually happened (from "The Apocalyptic Dossier: 967-1033")

Destruction of the great temple in Jerusalem

1009 The Holy Sepulchre in Jerusalem was destroyed by the chiliastic Moslem caliph Al Hakim. Outraged Europeans saw this as the destruction of the great temple predicted in the gospels. Their reactions included violent anti- Jewish outbursts.

Wars and rumors of wars, with nation rising against nation

Continuing wars in Europe and between Christians and Vikings to the north, Moors in Spain, and Hungarian Magyars in the East. By 1000, the Vikings and the Magyars had converted to Christianity, but fighting continued.

989-1000, 1031-33 Waves of peace councils swept across southern Europe and France.

Famines, pestilence and earthquakes

990-1000 Saxon annals reported a monstrous child, famines, plagues and mortality

1005-1006 European famine

1030-33 Major famine in France plus eclipse and massive earthquake

False prophets and lawlessness

950-80 Bishops corresponded about widespread apocalyptic reactions among the Hungarians (unleashing of Gog and Magog).

late 990s French sources mentioned apocalyptic beliefs leading to violent seizure of church property. 1000 outbreak of heresies in France, Italy, and the southwest Mediterranean seen the unleashing of Satan according to Revelations. Bishop Gerard of Csanád associated later heresies throughout Christendom (Italy, Gaul, Greece, Hungary) with Revelation 20:7.

1018 A pre-dawn panic and trampling at St. Martial was followed by outbreaks of heresy throughout southern France.

1022 Authorities described the burning of heretics at as part of the final battle against the Antichrist

Lightening in the east and west, darkening of the sun and moon, falling stars

965 Church annalists reported fire from heaven and the release of demons

968 Emperor Otto's army panicked during an eclipse, believing it was the end of the world.

989 Halley's Comet appeared

992 German sources reported light from the north at dawn and rumors of fighting among three suns, three moons and the stars.

1006 As a new star (Super Nova)appeared in the sky, a chaplain of the Emperor converted to Judaism.

1009, 1028 Rains of blood

Explicit warnings that the end was near

c. 950 Adso of Montier-en-Der wrote a "Treatise on the Antichrist", provoking widespread apocalyptic disquiet. In 992 Adso himself left on a one-way pilgrimage to Jerusalem

960 A Paris preacher announced the unleashing of Antichrist in 1000 AD and the Last Judgment shortly thereafter.

990s-1010s In England, Aelfric and Wulfistan preached the impending Last Judgment, sometimes linked to the year 1000 and the unleashing of Antichrist.

c.1025 Radulphus [Ralph] Glaber began a world history focused on the year 1000.

c.1025 Adémar de Chabannes began a world history whose major theme from 1010 on was apocalyptic signs and prodigies He also produced 500 apocalyptic folios of historical fiction.

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References

TABLE 2. RESPONSES TO THE YEAR 2000 ISSUE (as of November 1998)

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Rational

Humane

Politically astute

Symbolically powerful

U.S. federal government

Strong in a few agencies, slow and weak in others, little communication with the public

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