Government study: Climate bill spells gloom for jobs
Aug 5 - McClatchy-Tribune Regional News - Stephen Dinan
The
Despite President Obama's prediction that
it would create new jobs, the climate change bill passed by the House will mean
fewer jobs by 2030 than if Congress did nothing at all, according to the first
comprehensive study of the measure by the federal government.
"We can move to a clean energy future
at a cost of less than a postage stamp per family per day," Energy
Secretary Steven Chu said.
The report said the average cost to a
household by 2020 would be $114, though those costs would more than double to
$288 by 2030 as the rules on polluters tighten.
The Democrat-controlled House narrowly
passed its climate change bill on a 219-212 vote June 26. A week later, Mr.
Obama told chief executives that the legislation "holds the promise of
millions of new jobs -- jobs, by the way, that can't be outsourced."
Mr. Chu repeated the assertion Tuesday.
But a chart in the EIA report showed the
employment rate -- just like the economy as a whole -- worsening for the first
several years, improving slightly in the midterm, peaking in 2024 and then
declining steadily. It showed 0.25 percent fewer jobs in 2030 under the
Democrats' bill, with the manufacturing sector suffering a 2.5 percent lag.
For the economy as a whole, immediate
energy price spikes would be followed by relative calm as the economy adjusted.
But when stricter rules go into effect in 2025 "the rapid increase in
energy prices causes the economy to contract," EIA said.
The House bill imposes a limit on overall
The Senate is still drafting its version
of the climate bill.
Mr. Obama has called for Congress to pass
a bill that would reduce
The nations will try to forge an agreement
at a December meeting in
The EIA report, requested by the two
Democrats who wrote the House bill, is the first comprehensive look at the
measure's effects on the economy. EIA is an independent statistical agency of
the Energy Department that provides policy-neutral data and analyses and does
not advocate or formulate any policy conclusions.
The analysis said that the Democrats'
decision to give away credits for emissions, rather than auction them as Mr.
Obama proposed, would protect vulnerable industries.
"The Energy Information Agency
estimates that the American Clean Energy and Security Act approved by the House
will dramatically reduce our dangerous dependence on foreign oil, increase
clean renewable electricity generation in America by 28 percent, while also
keeping electricity costs affordable for all Americans," said House
Speaker Nancy Pelosi, California Democrat.
The report said renewable electricity and
nuclear power would have to increase and oil consumption would be reduced to
meet the bill's goals, but it did not say less foreign oil would be used.
Republican energy lobbyist Michael McKenna
said it's as likely the bill would increase dependence on unreliable sources.
The report is "completely silent on
the bill's effect on how much we import, and it's silent for good reason,"
Mr. McKenna said. "The legislation will either A, have no effect, or B, increase
our dependence on places like Saudi Arabia whose crude has relatively lower
carbon content than places like Canada, whose crude has a relatively higher
carbon content."
The study also did not say how effective
the bill would be in reducing global temperatures -- another primary goal of
Democrats.
EIA analysts said there is a lot of
uncertainty about how the program would play out, and looked at six scenarios
for how quickly technological advances might bring reductions in greenhouse gas
levels, and how easily
According to the worst-case scenario, if
technology doesn't materialize and other countries refuse to cooperate on
offsets, consumer prices could be 14 percent higher in 2030 than they would
otherwise be without the climate change bill.
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