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Nuclear Industry Leadership at the Crossroads

6.29.09   J.K. August, Engineer, CORE, Inc.

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    Thirty Years Avoiding Kemeny Report Three Mile Island Questions

    After the Three Mile Island (TMI) at Unit 2 accident on March 28, 1979, President Carter launched an investigation. He chartered a commission to examine the accident's causes and recommend changes. The Kemeny Commission delivered its report to the President on October 30, 1979. Citing nuclear safety concerns with its recommendations, it created anger. The Kemeny Commission called for fundamental changes in the nuclear industry's organization, procedures, and practices, and the even Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC):

    "To prevent nuclear accidents... fundamental changes will be necessary."

    The Kemeny report questioned nuclear structure and staff accountability. It cited the need for technical qualifications, designing, building and operating nuclear power plants. While calling for changes, it said basic requirements must be unequivocal. It asked the nuclear industry to address the complexity, accountability and overconfidence in its approach to nuclear design and operations, and equipment obsolescence. It said that changes would threaten nuclear culture -- forewarning their report would challenge the industry.

    President Carter approved recommendations when he accepted the report. Some never acknowledged the critical content in the Kemeny report, so key recommendations remain. Others struggled with the findings, avoiding their call for change. Circumstances refocused guidance in the report; Ronald Reagan's election in 1981 tabled recommendations. In 1982, two Kemeny associates accused the NRC of dragging its feet -- ignoring critical elements that remained. Addressing the report was as threatening as the TMI accident. Burying it was easier than changing nuclear processes or culture. Thus, nuclear issues remain today. Since that time, the complexity cited in the report contributing to the accident has grown ever worse.

    Problems remain in nuclear industry institutions and its framework. Complexity remains common. Regulations abound in non-actionable guidance. Nuclear costs remain high. Waiting for regulatory guidance and approval, the industry lacks technical innovations common in other industries, like digital controls and information automation. In the meantime, nuclear technology slipped into obsolescence. Obsolete controls developed decades ago remain in nuclear service. Industry awaits NRC direction to make changes, rather than initiate them on its own. Lack of initiative still demonstrates Kemeny Commission complacency documented in the report in 1979 -- thirty years ago!

    For forty years -- virtually its entire existence -- regulatory direction came from outside the industry. Most commissioners lack nuclear operating experience. Today government lab experience dominates commissioner backgrounds. Commissioners lack critical insights from within the industry. Lacking commercial operations perspective, their oversight is limited. Leadership lacks profound knowledge based on nuclear experience, insights by America's foremost quality management expert, W. Edwards Deming, deemed critical.

    New nuclear designs should not repeat the errors of the past -- the same errors that caused TMI. Congress should help industry redefine unanswered questions. Then the nuclear industry, its trade organizations like the Nuclear Energy Institute or the Institute of Nuclear Power Operations -- even the NRC -- could finally resolve open nuclear problems. An ineffective framework won't support new commercial nuclear plant designs effectively, much less new designs like the Next Generation Nuclear Plant (NGNP) -- the new prototype plant Congress authorized. Intended to jump-start the hydrogen economy and help phase out carbon-based fuels, the NGNP will not be a success making the same evolutionary startup errors. We can't afford the same cultural approach, chancing success by encouraging the same structural mindsets that gave us TMI.

    The U.S. cannot prosper without nuclear power, so we must use all our experience to improve it. Rediscovering the Kemeny findings will not only continue to lower nuclear risks, but also benefit costs. Today -- thirty years later -- we should reevaluate the Kemeny Commission's recommendations. We should finally address the structural nuclear issues that led Kemeny member Bruce Babbitt, Governor of Arizona, to conclude:

    "There are still unresolved questions about what happened at Three Mile Island; . the institutional problems of the industry [must still be addressed]."

    Congress should ask whether nuclear energy regulation can be more effective. "Is the framework today adequately safe and efficient?" "Can the NRC foster safer new nuclear technologies?" "Do regulatory bodies have a role restoring US nuclear energy leadership?" Or even, "Where does nuclear power technology need to be in the US today?" Congress should help resolve outstanding nuclear concerns. To fight complacency and allow safer, more effective nuclear energy growth, Congress must ask the nuclear industry's leaders and regulators to address the issues. The industry must finally answer the Kemeny Commission. Only then can the highest-level safety, regulatory and cost-effectiveness concerns finally be laid to rest -- along with the rest of TMI.

     

    Readers Comments

    Date Comment
    Ferdinand E. Banks
    6.29.09
    Articles like this need to be written, although I don't know what good they will do. As I have pointed out a couple of million times, people think that they have a choice where energy options are concerned, but in reality they have none: in the long run, on the average, they can choose nuclear or choose a decline in their standards of living.

    At the same time I can appreciate the concern of the TV audience about nuclear safety. Nuclear is inherently safer than many of them can understand, but they know what could happen in the event of a bad nuclear accident. And given certain unfortunate cultural changes that have taken place in the US over the last thirty years or so, bad events of various kinds are certainly possible.

    Kent Wright
    7.5.09
    Mr. August. I can hardly believe your piece has been laying there since 6/29 and no one has ripped you yet. Even harder to believe is that Energy Pulse editors did not at least give it a sniff test before running it.

    This crap is nothing more than outdated propaganda straight out the anti-nuclear propaganda mills of the early 80s. If you had read anything relevant to industry impacts in past 40 years except dogma you would have come to far different conclusions. What do you do with your monthly copies of Nuclear News? If you choose not to read them you should as least give them to your local library.

    Given that a man of your background should know better, ignorance of the truth is not possible. I can only conclude that you, Mr. August, are liar.

    No industry in the history of mankind has changed so profoundly from a single catastrophe than did the nuclear industry after the wreck at Three Mile Island. Heads rolled, ownership changed, and designers, managers, operators, trainers, and support engineers at every level either got a new religion (a.k.a. improved safety culture) or got out. Regulators and regulated alike were revolutionized, top to bottom, side to side.

    The proof is in the performance --- >90% capacity factors and safety on a level of magnitude higher across the board than existed in 1979.

    I could write several pages citing specifics, but let’s put it back on you, the maker of extraordinary claims. Either come back with specific charges or extract your statements.

    Michael Pinca
    7.7.09
    Mr Wright, I think you just "ripped" Mr August - bravo!

    I am proud to have served the industry "before the TMI event and after" - and I am proud to have contributed to the pace in which gave birth to the new religion you mentioned.

    Thank you, as well, Mr Banks for mitigating a "flux" about this article which, without proper response, could've caused a SCRAM.

    Ronald R. Cooke
    7.7.09
    Perhaps it is worth noting that H.R. 2454, The American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009, does NOT support the development or deployment of nuclear power. It does include a request for a new "study" due in 2011. "Not later than February 1, 2011, the Secretary of Energy shall transmit to the Congress a report showing the results of a study on the use of thorium-fueled nuclear reactors for national energy needs. Such report shall include a response to the International Atomic Energy Agency study entitled ‘‘Thorium fuel cycle - Potential benefits and challenges’’ (IAEA–TECDOC–1450)." Does anyone believe this is an accident?

    TCE

    Herschel Specter
    7.7.09
    Two safety studies, using different technologies, have recently come to the same conclusion about safety at nuclear power plants. The first study, sponsored by the Research Division of the NRC and conducted by Sandia National Laboratory (SNL) is called "SOARCA", an acronym for State- of -the- Art of Reactor Consequence Analyses" and is based on reviewing international nuclear safety studies and experiments,past accidents (including TMI) and incidents, and many years of operating experience. Many other technological advances were incorporated in the SOARCA program, such as a far more detailed description of the reactor vessel and containment building. The bottom line on the SOARCA effort is that the probability of releases of radioactive material into the environment is very small , these releases themselves would be much smaller than thought before and would take much longer to enter the environment. In fact, SNL has concluded that the releases would be so small and/or so late that there are no known large early releases. This is equivalent to concluding that the risk of causing an early fatality from a nuclear accident in the US is effectively zero. Also of great significance was that, for assumed accident scenarios, these very small releases were accomplished by natural chemical and physical processes, i.e., without the benefit of safety equipment because all electric power had been lost as well as steam driven equipment. Therefore no further failures of safety equpment or operator errors are possible. Additionally, no acts of terrorism could increase the size of these small releases. Should safety equipment work, there likelly would not be any release to the environment, save a tiny amoount of leakage with miniimal health effects.

    The other recent major study assumed a successful terrorist attack on one of the Indian Point power plants. Indian Point is the nation's most populated site and evacuation would be very slow. The assumed terrorist attack hypothesized that a huge hole had been created in the containment building (no small achievement) and a core melt sequence started one half hour later. This study by RBR Consultants made great technologiclal improvements in determining the time dependent locations of evacuating people. The bottom line here , just like the SNL results, is that zero or near zero early fatalities were calculated even for these extreme assumptions. There might be some long term health effects from this postulated terrorist attack due to the released radioactive material. However,these latent effects would be so small compared to normal background causesd of cancer fatalities, they would be statistically undetectable.

    Contrary to what the author has said, great safety progress has been made since TMI, including the development of probabilistic risk assessments for every nuclear plant in the country. No member of the public has ever been killed from the operation of nuclear power in the US for over 40 years. Even Wonder Bread can't claim that.

    What is happening in Washington now to nuclear power is a massive political onslaught and the environment and people will pay very dearly for it. Herschel Specter mhspecter@verizon.net

    Ferdinand E. Banks
    7.13.09
    What's happened? Have I forgotten how to read English?

    The author of this article clearly says that "America cannot prosper without nuclear power, ...."

    That's the bottom line, the thing that the TV audience needs to understand. At the same time there is no point in telling that audience that everything is simply great with nuclear, even if it is true, because they don't want to hear that, and as a result won't believe it. In Paris last year somebody asked me what would I say after one of these facilities '"exploded", and I don't mean somebody in a nightclub show, but from one of the 'grandest' of the grandes ecoles.

    Hershel Specter says that there is a massive political onslaught on nuclear. I don't know if it is true that it is "massive", but maybe it is a good idea if someone explained to the Energy Secretary that he should use at least a part of his time in office to educate the American people on what their energy future would look like without nuclear.

    Bob Amorosi
    7.14.09
    Professor Banks is right, America cannot really live without nuclear power. But sadly America, and Canada, will be gradually forced to live increasingly without much of it because the up-front costs of building them is too high to stomach.

    Ontario recently solicited bids for at least two new reactors to add to its Darlington power plant. The Canadian company AECL's bid was the only compliant bid and was poised to win the contract, but its price tag was far too high for the Ontario government. Quoted below from today's Toronto Star on-line newspaper article "$26B Cost Killed Nuclear Bid" by Tyler Hamilton, found at http://www.thestar.com/business/article/665644 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ The Ontario government put its nuclear power plans on hold last month because the bid from Atomic Energy of Canada Ltd., the only "compliant" one received, was more than three times higher than what the province expected to pay, the Star has learned.

    Sources close to the bidding, one involved directly in one of the bids, said that adding two next-generation Candu reactors at Darlington generating station would have cost around $26 billion.

    It means a single project would have wiped out the province's nuclear-power expansion budget for the next 20 years, leaving no money for at least two more multibillion-dollar refurbishment projects.

    "It's shockingly high," said Wesley Stevens, an energy analyst at Navigant Consulting in Toronto.

    Energy and Infrastructure Minister George Smitherman announced on June 29 he was suspending a competitive process for the purchase of new reactors for Ontario. He cited the price tag as "billions" too high, but would not reveal the amount of the bid from AECL, deemed the only compliant proposal out of three offers.

    AECL's $26 billion bid was based on the construction of two 1,200-megawatt Advanced Candu Reactors, working out to $10,800 per kilowatt of power capacity.

    By comparison, in 2007 the Ontario Power Authority had assumed for planning purposes a price of $2,900 per kilowatt, which works out to about $7 billion for the Darlington expansion. During Ontario Energy Board hearings last summer, the power authority indicated that anything higher than $3,600 per kilowatt would be uneconomical compared to alternatives, primarily natural gas.

    Much of the dramatic price increase relates to the cost of labour and materials, which have skyrocketed over the past few years. Nuclear suppliers and their investors also have less tolerance for risk.

    The bid from France's Areva NP also blew past expectations, sources said. Areva's bid came in at $23.6 billion, with two 1,600-megawatt reactors costing $7.8 billion and the rest of the plant costing $15.8 billion. It works out to $7,375 per kilowatt, and was based on a similar cost estimate Areva had submitted for a plant proposed in Maryland." ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Len Gould
    7.14.09
    Bob: There's a lot of funny stuff going on with that bid. There's NO WAY that the cost of constructing reactors which in 2001 were being pedaled widely in the US at US$1250 / kw up-and-running, with partnerships with Dominion Energy, have now increased to $26x10^9/2.4x10^6 = CDN$10,833 / kw (US$9,317) due simply to labour and materials. OPA's CDN$2,900 assumption was right on the mark. AECL is simply putting the shaft to OPA and the Fed's who own them in a brinkmanship test of wills designed to back OPA down on its demand for "hard fixed bid price" and to get the Feds to shut the heck up about selling them off. I agree with the strategy, and assume it will resolve itself with a FAR lower number.

    Bob Amorosi
    7.15.09
    Len,

    It does seem incredible for costs to skyrocket so much since 2001, especially in the current economic environment to boot, I agree completely. The question it begs is - who is gouging who ? AECL is no doubt fighting in any way it can to survive under federal government ownership. If the Feds cut them loose though, I wonder if they would survive without massive cuts to their employees' salaries and much lower bid prices.

    Bob Amorosi
    7.15.09
    Even Areva's bid seems to be way out in outer space. It leads one to think that maybe because Ontario insisted the bidders swallow any cost overruns, which plagued the nuclear industry in past, all the bidders were padding their bids excessively to cover any cost overrun risks. If so, they were shooting themselves in the foot.

    Michael Pinca
    7.15.09
    A quotation from today's article in EC from the PA Gov on an energy conservation program announced making 22M available from the Recovery Act: "The name says it all when describing this program," said Governor Rendell. "The less energy we use, the less energy we have to generate. The more energy we generate using clean, renewable technologies, the cleaner our environment will be and the stronger our economy will become."

    "Federal recovery money is making a difference in Pennsylvania," Governor Rendell said. "Our citizens are ambitious and innovative. They have great ideas on how to conserve energy, make our environment cleaner, put people to work, stimulate the economy and reduce our dependence on foreign oil. The " PA Conservation Works!" program will help do that."

    Energy conservation works one time, when you have the energy to conserve. A silly impression I have is that we have less and less to conserve, with all things considered. Maybe I'm just so numb to the manipulation, that seems to be thicker than peanut butter, that I would like to see plans for "Energy Reservation".

    I've said this before ~ "Later IS Now!" We will not succeed on continuing to have the "cart before the horse" for much longer; every day, led around by wireless devices, takes us further from future. Shuffling prioriities in a debt shrouded mode is all we are doing. No wonder the General Public can't get past the "Fear Factor".

    The day construction begins on just one new nuclear power plant, is the day we head back to the black.

    Len Gould
    7.15.09
    Bob: "If the Feds cut them loose though" -- that will be the end of nuclear industry in Canada. Given how much of a "feast then famine" up-and-down business AECL are in, I highly doubt they can possibly finance the R&D and construction projects themselve from current cash flows. If the Feds are determined to shut them down, the only possible option is to sell them to one of their foreign government backed competitors (France, Japan, Korea, US), which would "promise not to" but ASAP eliminate all but concrete pouring and welding jobs in Canada.

    Roger Arnold
    7.15.09
    I've been delving into question of what type of nuclear reactors we should be building. There are some very good presentations and an archive of technical papers at www.energyfromthorium.com. One of the links there is to the Youtube video of a recent Google tech talk by Dr. David LeBlanc, (here). I found Dr. LeBlanc's talk extremely impressive -- chock full of technical meat as well as background and relevant history. There was only one rather pro-forma question in the Q&A following the talk; I think the audience was too stunned to ask questions. That's how I felt, anyway.

    I have previously felt that the type of reactors we should build was a secondary issue, and that the important thing was just to get a building program restarted and the industry back on its feet. But I'm now at least half way to becoming a "believer" in the LFTR design (Liquid Flouride Thorium Reactor). The technical, environmental, and economic advantages that it appears to offer over other fuel cycles are compelling. I'm still looking for "flies in the ointment" -- beyond the obvious. (The obvious being that it's new, and will have to run the guantlet of certification. Along with the opposition of those who don't want any energy solution beyond "conservation and renewables".)

    Michael Pinca
    7.15.09
    "The U.S needs 64 GWe of new nuclear generating capacity by 2030 - 24 GWe of it by 2020" - Electric Power Research Institute.

    Any one have a reason to question this outburst today by EPRI?

    Don Hirschberg
    7.15.09
    From the numbers Len has posted we see the cost of a nuclear plant going up by a factor of 7 or 8 to one since 2001. What is the ratio for other thermal power plants during that period? This is surreal, has anything like this ever happened before without plausible reasons? Have we passed through the looking glass?

    Michael Keller
    7.16.09
    Does the 26 billion include debt repayment? If not, then Ontario was dead on in rejecting the bid.

    Michael Pinca
    7.16.09
    From publishers of Nuclear Street - "An Exclusive Nuclear Street Interview with Dr. James Mahaffey, author of ATOMIC AWAKENING: A NEW LOOK AT THE HISTORY AND FUTURE OF NUCLEAR POWER"

    "...In the future, the concept of "clean coal" will be a punch line and not a policy, and plans to put carbon dioxide back in the ground may be particularly hilarious. In the long term, nuclear power is inevitable, if we are to maintain or expand civilization and the world population. Like it or not, we will go nuclear. We have no choice. It would be best if we know what we are getting into better than we, as an industrial-world population, are presently aware. "

    KEY WORDS: expand civilization and the world population

    " I learned things writing this book. I started to see patterns and unobvious trends emerge from the noise of history. There is nothing particularly safe about releasing thermal energy at the rate of a billion watts in a moderately sized concrete building. The most dangerous thing we can do is to become so used to safety in nuclear plants that we no longer think about it. As long as you treat nuclear power like it wants to kill you, an excellent level of safety can be achieved. (This, if) As President, I would be aware that this vitally important, inevitable form of energy has yet to win the hearts and minds of the American people. A way to get there, eventually, is to keep the injury levels so low that the press finds it uninteresting. "

    Just sharing, I apologize for some outbursts of mine, let alone EPRI - Gentlemen of your status well may have heard of Dr. Mahaffey, I never did. He seems to respect all rational views, howvever, remains on a "forward path" as all of you usually do.

    Thank you, and good day!

    Len Gould
    7.19.09
    Interesting is this editorial from the Winipeg Free Press / Waterloo Record: "Right now, that price tag might have $14 billion written on it." AECL: use it, not lose it It appears there may be some "confusion" regarding the accuracy of that $26 billion number discussed above. $14 billion puts the bid into the range of $5,000 / kw, which is a bit closer to the $2,900 / kw OPG estimated. Perhaps if we simply wait another few days, we'll learn what the actual bid number was?

    Len Gould
    7.19.09
    I also note that apparently the $26 billion figure is arrived at by adding up the capital cost of construction, the cost of operation and fueling for 60 years, the cost of two full refurbishments, the total cost of decomissioning, and possibly even the cost of spent furl handling. Not a very useful figure when comparing the simple capital costs previously quoted.



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