Where Did the Money Go?

 

Venturing back into the turgid budget waters, I decided to run some comparisons between how the Cardinals spent their budget in 2004 versus how it will be spent in 2005.  The idea is to be able to draw conclusions about how money that will no longer be spent was reallocated on both planned increases and new players coming in.  Not surprisingly, it pretty much balances out.

 

To come up with the minus column, I either took the departing players’ 2004 salary minus any buyout (Woody Williams, for example) or the negative difference between their higher 2004 and their lesser 2005 salary (Cal Eldred, for example).

 

For the plus column, I used either the complete 2005 salary if the player is new to the team or the amount of their 2005 increase, if the player was on the team at the start of last year.  The only time I added in a 2005 bonus was in the case of Matt Morris, where there is such a large and apparently easy to achieve amount involved.  I also assumed an overall team budget increase of $6 million, from $82 million to $88 million.

 

These numbers are not intended to be totaled or to be analyzed in great detail.  Instead, it is one of a large number of possible ways to make some interesting comparisons.

 

Here’s how I did it.  I looked at the amount saved from single player or a group of players and paired them with a player or group of players who will receive a similar amount of increase.  I tried to do the comparisons by similar positions to make the comparisons as relevant as possible. 

 

My conclusions:

• Williams’ savings cover Carpenter’s and Marquis’ estimated increases.
• Kline’s savings cover King’s increase plus Myers.
• Renteria’s and Womack’s savings cover Eckstein, Grudzielanek plus Suppan’s increase.
• Matheny’s savings cover Diaz plus increases for Molina and Sanders.
• Morris’ and Anderson’s savings cover Mulder.
• Eldred’s and Lincoln’s savings cover Tavarez’ increase.
• The Tino, Vina and DeJean buyouts cover increases for Pujols, Edmonds, Rolen and Izzy.
• Lankford’s savings cover Reyes.
• The team budget increase covers Walker plus increases for Ankiel (est.) and Mabry, with about $200K left.
• Taguchi’s savings of $650K is unassigned.

Using this very rough process, one could draw the conclusion that the team might have about $1 million left.  That may or may not be right, but the real fun and the intended focus was in making the comparisons above. 

 

After I completed this exercise, I felt better about the budget than I did before.  The cost just to stand still each year is considerable.  To grow requires a larger budget, which the Cardinals have stepped up to.  All-in-all, it seems pretty fair.

 

Player Out	2004 Salary Out	2005 Salary In	Player In/Salary Increase
Williams	$3.85M	$1.9M	Carpenter increase
		$2.0M	Marquis increase estimate
Kline	$1.7M	$1.1M	King increase
		$0.6M	Myers
Renteria	$6.0M	$2.3M	Eckstein
Womack	$0.3M	$1.0M	Grudzielanek
		$3.0M	Suppan increase
Matheny	$2.75M	$0.6M	Diaz
		$0.16M	Molina increase estimate
		$2.0M	Sanders increase
Morris decrease	$5.5M	$6.0M	Mulder
Anderson	$0.6M
Eldred decrease	$0.3M	$1.0M	Tavarez increase
Lincoln decrease	$0.64M
Martinez buyout	$7.0M	$4.0M	Pujols increase
Vina buyout	$1.0M	$1.75M	Rolen increase
DeJean buyout	$0.25M	$0.8M	Edmonds increase
		$1.75M	Isringhausen increase
Lankford	$0.65M	$0.6M	Reyes
Budget increase	$6.0M	$5.5M	Walker
		$0.125M	Mabry increase estimate
		$0.2M	Ankiel increase estimate
Taguchi decrease	$0.65M

Ankiel: Coddling, Negotiating or BAU?

 

Anxious Cardinals fans have at least three recent factors by which to establish their impressions of Rick Ankiel’s readiness to pitch.  Those include his recent elbow discomfort, his assigned role on the team and his recovery time.

 

Some wonder whether the team is coddling the pitcher, given his surgery was 18 months ago.  Others fear a conspiracy, questioning whether the Cardinals are creating doubt about his role and/or his health to try to maintain contract negotiating leverage with Ankiel and his agent Scott Boras.  Others assume this is just business as usual (BAU).  Count me among the BAU camp.

 

Still, since not everyone in the Cardinal Nation agrees, let’s look at each factor in more detail.  

 

1)  Elbow twinge or pinch. 

Fact:  Near the end of his winter ball campaign in Puerto Rico, Ankiel experienced pain in his reconstructed elbow.  He was sent home early as a precautionary measure, though he has since been cleared to resume throwing. 

 

Fear:  Was this a legitimate act to protect Ankiel or was it overreaction, designed to create FUD (fear, uncertainty and doubt)?  Ankiel is bound to the team, but has accrued enough major league service time to be eligible for arbitration.  He is currently unsigned for 2005.

 

2)  Role on the team. 

Fact:  Because of Matt Morris’ recovery time from shoulder surgery and the lack of another viable starter, recent comments from the front office have changed.  Current indications are that Ankiel may be asked to start games in April.  Previously, he was assigned to the bullpen. 

 

Fear:  Is the team downplaying this role change for salary reasons?  After all, starters make considerably more money than long relievers, don’t they?

 

3)  Recovery time.  

Fact:  Ankiel’s reconstructive elbow surgery, aka ligament transplant surgery, aka Tommy John surgery was on July 16, 2003, 18 months ago.  That surgery involves taking a tendon from the wrist or hamstring and grafting it into the elbow.  Listed recovery time for this surgery is 12-18 months, but for pitchers to return to full effectiveness, up to 24 months was sometimes quoted in the past.

 

Fear:  Is the team protecting Ankiel or themselves or both?  After all, “maybe well” pitchers make less than “completely well” pitchers.  Why aren’t they cutting him loose? 

 

While average recovery time from this surgery has been improving over the years, nothing is guaranteed.  Of the recent prominent TJ pitchers, Florida Marlin A.J. Burnett had one of the more aggressive return schedules.