Predicting the 2005 Cardinals

 

Actually, I should give full credit or at least a major assist to Cardinals consultant and Advisory Board member Ron Shandler and his team from BaseballHQ, since their research is the core of this story.

 

One of my most important milestones of the hot stove season each year is the day in December when my new copy of the Baseball Forecaster arrives.  In its 19^th year, Shandler’s guide is the bible to the upcoming season for thousands like me.  In this year’s 240-page work, there is a wealth of historical as well as predictive information for major leaguers and minor leaguers, as well as sections on gaming (fantasy) and sabermetric tools.

 

But, the purpose of this story isn’t to sell books for Shandler.  Instead, it is to cobble together a small subset of his work to assemble what could be called an overly-simplistic glimpse of what we might expect from the 2005 Cardinals.  My premise here is very basic.  That is, to look at the delta between key player stats from year to year.

 

First of all, some disclaimers.  This data was generated to analyze individual players, not a team.  Nowhere in the Forecaster does BaseballHQ aggregate stats for team views as I attempt here.  I also did not include the entire roster, which would be required for a thorough analysis of the Cardinals team.  Finally, I adjusted the Forecaster projections to totally align with BaseballHQ’s most current projections, which unlike the ones in the Forecaster, make a first shot at fitting numbers into available playing time on the team. 

 

Still, all disclaimers aside, for individual players, these projections are well-founded, based on years of experience in analysis of individual skill sets, rates of growth and decline, resistance and recovery from injury, opportunity and other factors.  You still have to buy the Forecaster to get the full story, as these stats only scratch the surface of the in-depth analysis provided.  It is $23.95 well spent.  http://www.baseballhq.com/

 

2005 Projections vs. 2004 Actuals - St. Louis Cardinals

Hitter	At Bats	Home Runs	RBI	Batting Average	On-Base %
David Eckstein (as Anaheim Angel)	-2	+1	+4	-.006	-.004
Albert Pujols	-25	+2	+5	+.002	-.003
Scott Rolen	+33	+2	-7	-.023	-.022
Jim Edmonds	+13	-2	-3	-.013	-.018
Reggie Sanders	-41	-3	-7	+.002	+.008
Larry Walker (vs. 2003)*	-49	+6	-1	+.002	-.022
Subtotal	-71	+6	-9	-	-
Pitcher	Innings	Wins	Saves	ERA	Strikeouts
Chris Carpenter	+20	-3		+0.42	0
Jason Isringhausen	-17	-2	0	+0.07	-16
Ray King	-19	-3	0	+0.74	-4
Jason Marquis	-14	-4		+0.14	-8
Matt Morris	-29	-2		-0.77	-7
Mark Mulder (as Oakland A)	-52	-4		-0.33	-28
Jeff Suppan	-1	-3		+0.12	-7
Julian Tavarez	-21	-3	-2	+0.75	-20
Subtotal	-72	-24	-2	+	-100

 

* Since Walker’s 2004 was abbreviated due to injury, I chose the 2003 season as a more valid comparison point.

 

What conclusions can one draw from this? 

 

Offense 

For those key players upon which the Cardinals offense depends, overall trends are down.  Albert Pujols is the only player expected to improve in as many as three of the four categories year-to-year.  Scott Rolen is the one projected to have the largest decline in batting average and OBP and tied for most RBI down.  In aggregate, the power numbers from this group are not that different from year-to-year, but both average and on-base percentage look to decline a fair amount.

 

Pitching

First of all, it is clear that the HQ gang see Mark Mulder as an injury risk, peeling back his number of innings substantially.  (Even without looking at the improvement expected from Dan Haren, HQ’s view of the Mulder trade is clear.)  They project the ERAs of every one of these hurlers to rise, with the exception of Matt Morris and Mulder, in some cases by three quarters of a run per nine innings.  Not a single member of this group expected to increase his strikeout total. 

 

On the positive side, Jason Isringhausen is expected to basically repeat his fine 2004. 

 

However, most telling projection of all is that none of these pitchers is expected to increase their number of wins year to year, with the aggregate decline an alarming 24 games.

 

Conclusion

Let’s hope the BaseballHQ team is wrong or some unheralded players step up to fill the gaps.  Otherwise, these projections for this subset of the current roster, taken at face value, would signal a significant year-to-year decline is ahead for the St. Louis Cardinals individually and in aggregate in 2005.

 

Cora to Second?

 

Thursday’s Post-Dispatch mentions the Cardinals interest in former Dodger Alex Cora to play second base in 2005.  Walt Jocketty is noted to have said that a free agent acquisition is most likely to fill the opening versus a trade.

 

Walton’s take:  Jocketty could believe that or he could be doing what he can to bring the price down for any potential trade or both.  As always, likely keeping his options open.

 

Creaky Cards

 

With all the recent trades and signings, the Cardinals are getting longer in the tooth.  The players on the current 40-man roster, sitting at 36 in number, average 29.7 years of age.  That is third highest in the game, after the Red Sox (30.5) and the Yankees (30.6).

 

Looking at the projected 25-man roster based on what we know today, not surprisingly it gets worse, at 30.56 years of age on average.  I assumed a roster of 12 pitchers, with the starting shortstop and second baseman open and generously allowing young Hector Luna to keep his backup role in the middle infield.

 

Pitchers (12):