Predicting the 2005 Cardinals
Actually, I should give
full credit or at least a major assist to Cardinals consultant and Advisory Board member Ron Shandler and his team from BaseballHQ,
since their research is the core of this story.
One of my most important
milestones of the hot stove season each year is the day in December when my new copy of the Baseball Forecaster arrives. In its 19th year, Shandler’s guide is the bible to the upcoming season
for thousands like me. In this year’s 240-page work, there is a wealth of historical
as well as predictive information for major leaguers and minor leaguers, as well as sections on gaming (fantasy) and sabermetric
tools.
But, the purpose of this
story isn’t to sell books for Shandler. Instead, it is to cobble together a small
subset of his work to assemble what could be called an overly-simplistic glimpse of what we might expect from the 2005 Cardinals. My premise here is very basic. That is,
to look at the delta between key player stats from year to year.
First of all, some disclaimers. This data was generated to analyze individual players, not a team. Nowhere in the Forecaster does BaseballHQ aggregate stats for team views as I attempt here. I also did not include the entire roster, which would be required for a thorough analysis of the Cardinals
team. Finally, I adjusted the Forecaster projections to totally align with BaseballHQ’s
most current projections, which unlike the ones in the Forecaster, make a first shot at fitting numbers into available playing
time on the team.
Still, all disclaimers aside,
for individual players, these projections are well-founded, based on years of experience in analysis of individual skill sets,
rates of growth and decline, resistance and recovery from injury, opportunity and other factors. You still have to buy the Forecaster to get the full story, as these stats only scratch the surface of
the in-depth analysis provided. It is $23.95 well spent. http://www.baseballhq.com/
2005 Projections vs.
2004 Actuals - St. Louis Cardinals
|
Hitter |
At Bats |
Home Runs |
RBI |
Batting Average |
On-Base % |
|
David Eckstein (as Anaheim Angel) |
-2 |
+1 |
+4 |
-.006 |
-.004 |
|
Albert Pujols |
-25 |
+2 |
+5 |
+.002 |
-.003 |
|
Scott Rolen |
+33 |
+2 |
-7 |
-.023 |
-.022 |
|
Jim Edmonds |
+13 |
-2 |
-3 |
-.013 |
-.018 |
|
Reggie Sanders |
-41 |
-3 |
-7 |
+.002 |
+.008 |
|
Larry Walker (vs. 2003)* |
-49 |
+6 |
-1 |
+.002 |
-.022 |
|
Subtotal |
-71 |
+6 |
-9 |
- |
- |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Pitcher |
Innings |
Wins |
Saves |
ERA |
Strikeouts |
|
Chris Carpenter |
+20 |
-3 |
|
+0.42 |
0 |
|
Jason Isringhausen |
-17 |
-2 |
0 |
+0.07 |
-16 |
|
Ray King |
-19 |
-3 |
0 |
+0.74 |
-4 |
|
Jason Marquis |
-14 |
-4 |
|
+0.14 |
-8 |
|
Matt Morris |
-29 |
-2 |
|
-0.77 |
-7 |
|
Mark Mulder (as Oakland A) |
-52 |
-4 |
|
-0.33 |
-28 |
|
Jeff Suppan |
-1 |
-3 |
|
+0.12 |
-7 |
|
Julian Tavarez |
-21 |
-3 |
-2 |
+0.75 |
-20 |
|
Subtotal |
-72 |
-24 |
-2 |
+ |
-100 |
* Since Walker’s 2004 was abbreviated due to injury, I chose the 2003 season as a more valid comparison point.
What conclusions can one
draw from this?
Offense
For those key players upon
which the Cardinals offense depends, overall trends are down. Albert Pujols is
the only player expected to improve in as many as three of the four categories year-to-year.
Scott Rolen is the one projected to have the largest decline in batting average and OBP and tied for most RBI down. In aggregate, the power numbers from this group are not that different from year-to-year,
but both average and on-base percentage look to decline a fair amount.
Pitching
First of all, it is clear
that the HQ gang see Mark Mulder as an injury risk, peeling back his number of innings substantially. (Even without looking at the improvement expected from Dan Haren, HQ’s view of the Mulder trade is clear.) They project the ERAs of every one of these hurlers to rise, with the exception of
Matt Morris and Mulder, in some cases by three quarters of a run per nine innings. Not
a single member of this group expected to increase his strikeout total.
On the positive side, Jason
Isringhausen is expected to basically repeat his fine 2004.
However, most telling projection
of all is that none of these pitchers is expected to increase their number of wins year to year, with the aggregate decline
an alarming 24 games.
Conclusion
Let’s hope the BaseballHQ
team is wrong or some unheralded players step up to fill the gaps. Otherwise,
these projections for this subset of the current roster, taken at face value, would signal a significant year-to-year decline
is ahead for the St. Louis Cardinals individually and in aggregate in 2005.