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Welcome to Brian Walton's St. Louis Cardinals blog!

News and commentary about the past, present and future state of the St. Louis Cardinals. 
 
Note that all new St. Louis Cardinals-related content will be posted on the new Birdhouse site, stlcardinals.scout.com, rather than here.  An explanatory note is below. 
 
Search the archives, listed by week and month, at the bottom of this page.

Tuesday, November 30, 2004

Unit Owns the Central

 

Though there is no new news on the trade discussions between the St. Louis Cardinals and the Arizona Diamondbacks, I decided to look up some pertinent statistics to help pass the time. 

 

We all knew Randy Johnson is good.  A future Hall of Famer, right?  Well, it gets even better as we move closer to home.  As a result, some of the questions about the Cardinals’ motivation as they consider adding Johnson to their rotation should be answered. 

 

Johnson has limited every one of the National League Central Division teams to a lower batting average than his already-microscopic .213 average to all teams.  In addition, Johnson has registered an ERA lower than his career average against every one of the National League Central teams with the exception of the Brewers, whom he faced often earlier in his career before they moved from the American League Central to the NL Central in 1998.

 

To top it off, Johnson has a career 16-0 record against the Cubs and Astros combined and his overall winning mark against the Division’s teams is 120 points better than his career mark versus all other teams (.759 vs. .639)

 

Here are some of The Big Unit’s career numbers.  It is pretty safe to say that Johnson has dominated the NL Central teams, with the exception of the Cardinals.  Will he get another chance to continue this NL Central domination up close and personal in 2005?

 

Randy Johnson career

Starts

Win-Loss

ERA

Opposing Batting Average

vs Cubs

13

12-0

1.98

.189

vs Astros

5

4-0

2.50

.182

vs. Reds

9

3-3

1.51

.168

vs. Brewers

29

18-6

3.36

.204

vs. Pirates

12

7-5

2.28

.203

vs. Central Division (ex StL)

68

44-14 (.759)

2.75

.194

 

 

 

 

 

vs. all other teams

411

202-114 (.639)

3.18

.216

vs. all teams

479

246-128 (.658)

3.07

.213

 

 

 

 

 

For comparison:

 

 

 

 

vs. Cardinals career

12

5-6

3.87

.256

 

(Note:  Johnson registered a 10-1 record with a 1.28 ERA during the last half of the 1998 season as a member of the Houston Astros.)

 

Taking this a bit further, let’s look at the Cardinals, and specifically their top five starters this past season.

 

 

Starts

Win-Loss

ERA

Opposing Batting Average

Cardinals team 2004

162

105-57 (.648)

3.75

.251

 

 

 

 

 

Top 5 starters Cardinals 2004

154

72-39 (.649)

4.06

.263

Chris Carpenter

28

15-5

3.46

.245

Jason Marquis

32

15-7

3.71

.275

Matt Morris

32

15-10

4.72

.266

Jeff Suppan

31

16-9

4.16

.265

Woody Williams

31

11-8

4.18

.262

 

 

 

 

 

Randy Johnson (Arizona 2004)

35

16-14

2.60

.197

 

Is there any doubt that the Cardinals could use an upgrade to their 2004 rotation and that Johnson could be that upgrade?  The only open question is whether the cost is worth it.  The potential benefit is crystal clear.

 

6:04 am est

Monday, November 29, 2004

Monday Edition

Walton’s Wanderings

 

Neither Cabrera nor Renteria Likely in Beantown

The Boston Herald reports that the Red Sox will not entertain a three-year or longer deal for shortstop Orlando Cabrera or any other shortstop, for that matter.  There is still a chance that Cabrera will be tendered, with the Sox willing to risk a one-year deal decided by an arbitrator.  The paper calls a long-term deal like Cabrera wants “next to impossible to imagine”.  Instead, the team is expected to go after a veteran stopgap like Jose Valentin or Barry Larkin until top prospect Hanley Ramirez is ready.  This means Edgar Renteria, with similar demands as Cabrera, will clearly not be in the Sox plans.  However, it does enhance Cabrera’s viability as a replacement if Edgar is not signable by St. Louis.

 

Woody to Astros or Retirement

I have confirmed, as reported earlier, that Woody Williams wants to pitch for the Cardinals or Astros in 2005 or will simply retire.  Even with the Cards apparent disinterest in having him return, Williams’ decision is on-hold, pending Roger Clemens’ answer as to whether or not he will come back to the Astros for one more season.  That is not expected until sometime around the holidays.

 

Matheny Looking for Three and Out

Free agent catcher Mike Matheny is looking for a three-year deal and when he gets it, color him gone.  Pittsburgh seems to be the current front-runner for his services despite conflicting information as to whether he is in their price range.  The Chicago Tribune also calls Matheny a “perfect fit” for the White Sox, but implied his price tag of “two years for $5 million, maybe more” might be too high.

 

Price of Pitching Up

The New York Daily News offers this interesting observation. “The Mets retained Kris Benson with a three-year, $22.5 million deal and a fourth-year team option. But the contract led to a scolding of the club by Commissioner Bud Selig's salary police, according to a source, because it inflated what free-agent pitchers across baseball expect to get this winter.”   Can you spell “collusion”, sort of?

 

Womack Ante Too High?

The Chicago Tribune says Tony Womack increased his minimum salary to $1 million with incentives last season with the Cardinals, but a two-year, $5 million deal may be too rich for the Cubs.

 

An Interesting Second Base Option?

Jeff Cirillo, known as a third sacker his entire career, is playing second base in Mexico this winter.  Cirillo, who is a free agent, will be paid over $7 million next season in the last year of a guaranteed contract he signed before his career hit bottom in Seattle and San Diego.  If Cirillo makes a major league team next spring, that team would owe him only the $300,000 major league minimum.  In his first 32 at-bats with Los Mochis, Cirillo is hitting .250 with six RBI in 32 at-bats.

 

And Another…

Toshihisa Nishi is a 33-year-old second baseman from the Yomiuri Giants with a .274 career average and great range in the field, with four Gold Gloves won.  He is recognized as an excellent leadoff man, but hit only 2-for-17 (.118) in the recent MLB Japan Series.  Nishi was quoted as saying he will stay in Japan unless he is offered $1 million a year to come to America.  So Taguchi, anyone?

 

Considerable Cards Canuck Contingent

The Toronto Sun reports the Cardinals are tied with the Blue Jays, Orioles, Twins and Dodgers for the second-most number of Canadians, two, on their 40-man rosters.  The #1 team with three is the Atlanta Braves.  The Cards’ two are Larry Walker and Cody McKay.

 

4:45 pm est

La Russa Return Stuck on Pitching?

 

A source very close to the Cardinals has reported an interesting rumor.  The prevailing feeling among some insiders is that part of the reason that Tony La Russa may not have come to terms on his expected contract extension is due to the ongoing uncertainty about the make-up of the 2005 pitching rotation.

 

Here is the line of thinking.  Long-time pitching coach Dave Duncan is said to be pushing hard for a trade for Randy Johnson.  In fact, it was clearly stated in a Joe Strauss Post-Dispatch story on Wednesday that Duncan actually wants two power arms added to the rotation for 2005.  La Russa was represented as being in agreement with Duncan’s stance.  Walt Jocketty acknowledged what the two want, but admitted that "in an ideal world we'd like to see that, but it may not be possible." 

 

Duncan