Wild Card Wildness

 

The good news is that folks at MLB have published the possibilities.  The bad news is that they don’t completely make sense.  Read on and I will explain.  For reference, here is the story.

 

http://stlouis.cardinals.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/mlb/news/mlb_news.jsp?ymd=20040915&content_id=859158&vkey=news_mlb&fext=.jsp

 

Coin tosses have been held for the two-team Wild Card tiebreakers.  That game would be played on Monday if needed.  They are:

 

Chicago at San Francisco
Houston at San Francisco
San Diego at San Francisco
Chicago at Houston
Chicago at San Diego
Houston at San Diego   

 

That is very straightforward.  If they win the Wild Card, San Francisco or San Diego would come to St. Louis for Game One on Wednesday.  If the Cubs or Astros win the Wild Card, the NL West winning Dodgers would come to St. Louis for Game One on Tuesday. 

 

But, what if the Giants, Astros and Cubs all tie for the Wild Card?

 

In the three-way tie scenario, it gets crazy.  In fact, it is not documented.  I believe that two Wild Card playoff games would be required.  Based on the above coin toss results, San Francisco would be the big winner.  Monday’s game would be the Cubs @ Astros.  The winner would travel to San Francisco for a Tuesday game to decide it. 

 

However, that is where it all falls apart.  Because the Wild Card winner would not be decided until Tuesday’s second wild card elimination game, there is no way for the teams in the other NLDS match-up, also scheduled for Tuesday, to have been decided either.

 

There are only two ways out of this, and both require something to be broken, either the rule that a wild card winner must play an opponent out of division, or the days that the NLDS games are played must be adjusted.  Here are those two options explained further:

 

1)  Decide ahead of time that Tuesday’s Wild Card winner will play in St. Louis on Wednesday, no matter what.  That would allow the NL West winner and Atlanta to play on Tuesday as planned.  That would also mean that the Cubs or Astros could, in fact, end up playing St. Louis in the first round, despite the rules that say it cannot happen.

 

2)  Delay both NLDS Game Ones until at least Wednesday until the Wild Card is decided on Tuesday.  This would wreak havoc on schedules already set, but would protect the wild card not playing in its own division.  However, MLB is insisting that the Games are set – one NLDS game will be held on Tuesday.  They have not yet acknowledged this conflict.

 

Got that?

 

I have been going back and forth all afternoon with the author of the above article from MLB to try to get clarity on which scenario they would follow if there is a three-way tie.  I will update this article as needed.

 

As an aside, to date MLB has assumed that the Dodgers will hold on to defeat the Giants in the NL West.  As a result, they did not yet do the necessary coin tosses to figure the Dodgers into the Wild Card mix if the Giants were to win the division.  It would only get more confusing.

 

I should stop here, but I won’t. 

 

What happens if all four teams are tied – Dodgers, Giants, Astros and Cubs? 

 

This has really, really low odds of happening, but still, it is fun to speculate about.  As far as I can tell, there are plans for a division tie and a wild card tie as noted in the story linked to above, but not for the two of them when connected together. 

 

As I see it, there are two possible scenarios. 

 

1)  On Monday, the Dodgers would play at San Francisco for the NL West.  The Cubs would play at Houston for the Wild Card.  The losers are out.  The Cards would play the NL West winner on Tuesday in the NLDS Game One. 

 

2)  On Monday, the Dodgers would play at San Francisco for the NL West.  The Cubs would play at Houston in the first Wild Card playoff on Monday.  The loser of the NL West playoff game would host the winner of the first Wild Card playoff game on Tuesday to decide the Wild Card. 

 

However, scenario 2 is not doable because it would delay the first Game of the NLDS until Wednesday.  Just like mentioned above, that is because the Wild Card team would not be known until Tuesday’s elimination game was complete.  So, neither NLDS match-up could be defined until too late.   To make this work, either the wild card team would have to play-in division or both NLDS games would have to be delayed to start until at least Wednesday.  And, MLB is saying the latter will not happen, so scenario 1 is the only viable possible situation.  Scenario 1 makes the most sense anyway, since technically, the NL West playoff loser would at that point have a poorer record than the wild card playoff game winner and would no longer be tied.

 

Give up?

 

I will let you know when I can get this sorted out.  In the meantime, enjoy the fact that the Cards are only indirectly involved with the Wild Card.

 

Addendum:  After many exchanges, I got finally got the clarification I needed from Mark Newman from MLB:  “Thanks for the persistence. The NLDS would start Wednesday in that case as well.  Any DS would start Wednesday if there is a Tuesday game (heaven forbid) necessary.”

 

This conflicts with his story on MLB.com, but at least it confirms that the Cards will not play the Cubs or Astros in the first round.  Instead, in the case of a three-team tie and two-game Wild Card playoff, the other NLDS game would be delayed until Wednesday.  That makes sense.

 

Wouldn’t it be great to see the other teams burn up their pitchers in two more must-win games?  May never happen, but now we know what would occur if the situation did present itself.

 

 

Playoff Roster and Rotation Setting

 

It’s about time again to revisit the forecasted postseason roster, as things seem to be coming into place.   Without further ado, here are my best guesses with reasoning as to why …

 

Infield starters:  Matheny, Pujols, Womack, Rolen, Renteria.

 

Outfield starters:  Sanders, Edmonds, Walker.

 

Bench infielders – Molina, Luna, Mabry, Anderson.

 

Bench outfielders – Cedeno, Taguchi.

 

Watching – Lankford, McKay.

 

Infield/Outfield Commentary

There really isn’t much suspense remaining here.  I refuse to list Marlon Anderson as an outfielder, despite his start in left again this past weekend.  Ray Lankford is clearly on his September farewell tour.  His last official at-bat was on the 11^th and his last/only start since returning on September 1st was on the 7th.  In that game, Ray went 0-for-4 with three strikeouts.

 

Starting pitchers – Morris, Williams, Suppan, Marquis.

 

Relievers – Haren, Calero, Tavarez, King, Eldred, Isringhausen, Kline (or Reyes).

 

Watching – Ankiel, Flores, Cali.

 

Injured – Carpenter.

 

Relief Pitching Commentary

Haren and Calero were on the bubble earlier, but I think they have earned their way in.  Haren also provides starter insurance.  Calero has spun a nice 2.08 ERA this month in nine games. 

 

Recent news is more encouraging about Kline, but until he pitches in a game and gets through it and its aftermath, he remains an unknown.  Al Reyes would be my choice as the final selection if Kline cannot go.  Including his perfect three inning start at Colorado, Reyes has posted an ERA of 1.00 with an opposing batting average of .074 in his nine innings.

 

Carmen Cali has done nothing to earn a spot on the postseason roster, in fact, quite the opposite, giving up six runs in four innings.  Randy Flores has done much better, with a 1.50 ERA and an opposing batting average of .217.  But, six innings is a small sample type and Flores is a 29-year old journeyman.

 

La Russa picked a strange place, Colorado last weekend, to pitch Rick Ankiel.  Ankiel’s apologists quickly pointed out the mile-high-driven lack of the break on the curve was the reason for his poor outing.  Didn’t La Russa know that, too?  Anyway, I was glad to see it in a way.  Now, Ankiel has been recertified as what he is – a very good pitcher recovering from injury and getting ready for 2005.  He’s done nothing but start innings when he has appeared because that is what he is - a starter, hopefully in 2005 for the Cardinals.

 

So, where’s the second bullpen lefty, you ask?  Well, if Kline can’t go, there won’t be one in this scenario.  Now, some people in the Cardinal nation are completely frazzled over this.  Here are a couple of factoids to straighten your curls. 

 

First, the San Diego Padres, currently fighting it out for the Wild Card, have no lefty relievers – none.  They seem to be doing quite well in the National League West, even though there are a number of good lefty hitters out there like Barry Bonds, J.T. Snow, Shawn Green and Steve Finley.  And, we all know that the Padres’ manager isn’t as smart as the Cardinals’.

 

In all seriousness, here are the other bullpen member’s success rates, as measured by opponent batting average against lefties.  Calero .189, Eldred .253, Reyes .083 (small sample size), Tavarez .269 and Haren .176.  Don’t you imagine these guys could get a left-handed hitter or two out if needed?

 

Starting Pitching Commentary

Now, let’s look at the possible playoff rotation.  At this point, we know the Houston series starters are Williams, Haren and Suppan.  Morris may pitch Thursday or Friday.  Jason Marquis is slotted for Saturday.  That much is supposedly “known”.

 

Matthew Leach at MLB.com thinks that either Thursday or Friday, the day Morris doesn’t start, will be another a “bullpen game” like last Saturday’s.  Leach finds it “difficult to envision” Williams not pitching the regular season finale Sunday.  I am not so sure about that at all, as it would line up Suppan for a Game One or Two start, which makes no sense to me (see below).

 

Others seem convinced that Morris and Williams will get the starts in the first two NLDS games.  Certainly the late-week start for Morris would seem to indicate that, but Williams pitching Sunday would not.  Williams would certainly get the call for my team early in the playoffs, rather than a worthless final regular season match.

 

I could easily see Williams starting whichever of Game One or Two is a day game, with Morris being held for the night home contest.  All things equal, I am sure I am not alone in being nervous with the prospect of Morris starting Game One, no matter the time or location.  But it is a possibility with my guess that Game One will be scheduled at night. 

 

Either way, I do find it ironic that the two guys who have been the Cardinals’ longest-running starters and most likely to leave after the season may get the ball in the two most important games of the season.  I am not arguing with the situation; just observing.

 

Suppan and Marquis would be available for Games Three and Four on the road.  Suppan’s ERA is a run-and-a-half better away from Busch this season, so that is simple.  Marquis’ home and road ERA are virtually identical, so he could be the swing man.

 

There you have it; some logic and some educated guesses.  In a week, we’ll know everything but the outcome.  So, stay tuned!

 

Cardinals’ Starters – Lucky or Unlucky?

By Brian Walton and Jerry Modene

 

Baseball Prospectus, primarily a subscription site, is running on their home page a list of the five (actually six) luckiest National League starters.  This is based on looking at these pitchers’ actual win-loss record compared to what BP’s program says their records should be.  Of those six, three Cardinals are included; Chris Carpenter, Jeff Suppan and Matt Morris.  www.baseballprospectus.com

 

Birdhouse columnist Jerry Modene is among those who take exception to that.  First, he looked at a few of the basic stat indicators, which clearly refute BP’s conclusions.  By the numbers, the Cardinals starters have done very well. 

Their ERA is down to 3.92.

They have allowed fewer hits than innings pitched (946 hits in 950 innings).

They have a better than 2-to-1 K/BB ratio (641 K, 316 BB),

They average 6.07 K's per 9 innings.

Some no-name staff!

 

Jerry went on to look at Game Scores as a more direct, quantitative alternate method to answer whether or not the Redbird starters have indeed been "lucky" or "unlucky".  As a reminder, sabermetric pioneer Bill James invented Game Score, a metric for evaluating the quality of a pitcher's outing.  Game Score is commonly thought of a measure for how dominant a pitcher was in the game.

Chris Carpenter is neither lucky nor unlucky:  He’s had 18 starts of 50+, and 10 below 50. So he theoretically could have been 18-10; obviously, there are no-decisions and the like mixed in there, which is why bullpen pitchers get decisions, but the Cards are 20-8 in Carpenter's starts, which implies a little bit of "luck". But in actual fact, Carpenter's luck is mixed - he's had 7 starts of 50 points or greater where he took the no-decision, and 1 start of 50 points or greater where he took the loss, but he's also had 6 starts of below 50 points where he got the win.

Jason Marquis is neither: 17-13 theoretically; Cards 16-14 in actual fact. Marquis has been lucky not so much in his wins, but in avoiding losses; he has 10 no-decisions in his 30 starts, 5 of which he failed to get 50 points - when he had his 11-game winning streak between May 26 and September 16, he had 7 no-decisions, 4 of which involved starts where he had fewer than 50 points and could well have lost.

Matt Morris is neither: 17-14 theoretically; Cards 20-11 in actual fact. In Morris' case, it's been the inconsistency which has hurt him, not bad luck (or good luck) but we've already figured out now that the inconsistency this season appears to be based on the fact that while he's been good in home games at night, and OK in home games in the daytime and road games at night, his record in road games in the daytime is horrendous.

Jeff Suppan is lucky: 12-17 theoretically; Cards 20-9 in actual fact. There's your luckiest pitcher in a Cardinal uniform; he's only had 12 starts where he's posted a GS of 50 or greater. At six no-decisions, he's got the fewest ND's of the five starters (Morris has 7, Carpenter 8, Marquis 10, Williams 11) but has been lucky enough to get the win 7 times when he posted a GS of less than 50 points (although most of those have been around 44-49 points) and the Cards are 11-6 in those 17 games in which Suppan has failed to reach the 50-point mark.

Woody Williams is unlucky: 18-12 theoretically; Cards 21-9 in actual fact. There's your *unluckiest* pitcher in a Cardinal uniform; this is a guy who's had 18 starts of 50 points or greater but who has only actually won 10 of those 18 starts. And it's not a case of his having been outpitched by the other guy, either; he's only lost two of those 18 starts and the Cards are, when Williams gives us 50 points or more, 15-3. It's been the bullpen - as evidenced, too, by the fact that before he won Wednesday night, Williams had had 4 straight 50+ starts but had only won one of them; he got no-decisions in the last three before last night, when Izzy barely held on for the save. Otherwise it would have been four straight.

 

So, there you have it.  Both the basic stats and Game Scores tell a much different story about the Cardinals starting pitching than does Baseball Prospectus.  Decide for yourself, but I am not going to bookmark that BP story on my computer.  I know what I see everyday.

 

Free the Starters and Make Relievers Accountable

 

Alright, I’ve had enough.  Thursday’s game has driven me to vent.  For the second time in the last week and at least the third time this season, something has happened that really, really irritates me and violates my spirit of fairness.

 

I realize that what follows is not an important subject.  It clearly isn’t a team-oriented argument.  And I am not intending to pit the relievers against the starters.  It’s not even a Cardinal-specific issue.  Instead, I am looking for fairness where I think it is missing in the MLB rulebook.

 

Here’s the all-too-familiar scenario.  A reliever comes into the game to protect the lead.  Instead, he coughs up enough runs to cost the starter a well-earned win.  Now, blowing a save is bad enough.

 

However, what happens next makes matters even more unfair; an injustice even.  In their next at-bats, the high-test Cardinals offense storms back to re-take the lead.  As a result, the reliever gets a “vulture” win, having the good fortune to be the right place at the right time for the right team, one good enough to prevail in late-game tie situations and/or come back from late-inning deficits.

 

In my scorebook, if he blows the save, I would rip that win away from the non-deserving reliever and return it to its rightful owner – the starter.  Now, I wouldn’t advocate this action except in the situation where the reliever blows a save and later becomes in line for a cheap win.  I’m not even talking about when the starters’ put runners on base that were inherited by the relievers and score later.  I mean when the starter has gone five or more and leaves the game free and clear, heading toward a win.  No matter what, if his team wins the game, he should get the win.

 

When I subjected my oldest son to this rant, he was totally unimpressed and instead if heaping on hoped-for praise, took the offensive.  He questioned my crossing the line into what he feels is arbitrary territory.  He asked, if I make this change, wouldn’t I also have to give an original runner credit for a run scored even if he is replaced by another runner via a fielders’ choice?  I had to think about it a bit, but my reply was “no”, because that run cannot be assumed to score.  It is unfair; but not a gross injustice like my pitching example.

 

Thursday, this situation occurred, costing Dan Haren a win as Cal Eldred allowed the tying run.  Cal was the pitcher of record when the Cards took the lead for good two innings later.  Yet, perhaps I should cut Cal a bit of slack, as this was his first blown save/win combination of the season.

 

As one might expect, the prime culprit would be the closer, whose job it is to protect late-inning leads.  Izzy got the blown save/win Friday night against Arizona, taking a win away from Woody Williams.  Izzy’s other example was against Houston back on Memorial Day weekend.  In that one, Chris Carpenter lost an eight-inning, two hit shutout.

 

I want to see the rules changed to keep this from happening.  Free the starters and make those relievers accountable!

 

Mike Shannon Doesn’t Read The Birdhouse

 

What am I talking about now, you ask?  No, it isn't some kind of ego-driven commercial.

 

In a conversation earlier this season, long-time Cardinal broadcaster Mike Shannon made it clear to me that he gets all the news he needs from the newspaper and doesn’t go anywhere near the internet.  It’s not all that surprising coming for someone from his generation and I certainly was not offended when he said it.

 

So, the deduction is simple.  No internet, no Birdhouse.  Pretty weak story so far, huh?  Stick with me here and I’ll explain.

 

My colleague Ryan Pastrovich let me know that during Thursday’s game, Shannon recounted to his thousands of listeners a story about how he had the pleasure of talking for 30 minutes prior to that day’s game with someone very special.  Shannon proudly pointed out that he had an audience with no one other than the person who he represented as being the oldest living former major leaguer.

 

I have to admit my natural curiosity was piqued.  Did someone tell Shannon about our successful search for the oldest living former Cardinal?  Wait a minute…  Why would Ray “Lee” Cunningham be at Miller Park in Milwaukee?  Did Shannon call him at his retirement home in Texas?  Maybe the Birdhouse will get a mention on KMOX…

 

My excitement was almost at a fever pitch when Shannon mentioned the former major leaguer’s name was Ray.

 

But, wait just a minute here.  As the rest of the picture was filled in, it wasn’t what I expected at all.  Shannon had been duped.  He had spoken with a pretender, or should I say contender, a veritable youngster.  Shannon’s chat was with a 97-year old former major league catcher and former Chicago White Sox coach named Ray Berres.

 

Ray Berres.  I remembered the name from the research I’d done on Lee Cunningham.  Berres played for eleven years, from 1934 through 1945 for four National League teams.  While he had far more service time than Cunningham, Berres was more than two years younger. 

 

In fact, thanks to a great trivia site called “Who’s Alive and Who’s Dead”, http://www.wa-wd.com/ , I was able to confirm that Berres is only the fifth oldest former major leaguer.  He was never a Cardinal, either!

 

Here is the list:

Rank	Name	DOB	Years of Service	Notes
	Paul Hopkins	9/25/1904	1927-29	Died on 1/2/2004.
	Bill Rogell	11/24/1904	1925-40	Died on 8/9/2003.
1	Ray Cunningham	1/17/1905	1931-32
	Gus Suhr	1/3/1906	1930-40	Died on 1/15/2004.
	Bob Cremins	2/15/1906	1927	Died on 3/27/2004.
2	Rollie Stiles	11/17/1906	1930-33
3	Howdie Grosklos	4/9/1907	1930-32
4	Bobby Stevens	4/17/1907	1931
5	Ray Berres	8/31/1907	1934-45