METALS & MINING
Robert
Edwards
Renaissance
SECOND TEAM
Sergey Donsky Troika
THIRD TEAM
Michael Kavanagh UralSib
Robert
Edwards of Renaissance Capital relocated from Moscow to London last September,
but he hasn't moved from the No. 1, which he captures for the sixth consecutive year.
In January, when the American depositary receipts of coal and steel producer Mechel sank to $2.57, many analysts predicted
that the company would declare bankruptcy; Edwards, 42, dubbed the stock a bargain and said it was poised for a rebound, owing
to surging construction demand in the Middle East and a contract to supply steel for high-speed rails in China. By the end of April, Mechel's ADRs had skyrocketed to $5.32, a 107 percent gain that bested the sector
by 34.2 percentage points. "Rob understands where his companies fit in to the
global-resource equation," asserts one buy-side admirer. Up one notch to second
place is Sergey Donskoy of Troika Dialog, whose “opinions don't depend on
the consensus view," according to one investor. Donskoy downgraded the global
depositary receipts of Chelyabinsk Zinc Plant to sell June, at $8.63, largely on falling zinc prices. The GDRs plunged 83.8 percent, to $1.40, through April. Newcomer
Michael Kavanagh of is UralSib Financial Corp., described by clients as "properly
critical" and someone who "doesn't accept the official company line," debuts in third place.
Citing rising demand, Kavanagh told clients to buy the GDRs of Magnitogorsk Iron & Steel Works in December. Through April, the steelmaker's GDRs gained 44.8 percent.
OIL & GAS
Oleg Maximov
Troika
SECOND TEAM
Alexander Burgansky Renaissance
THIRD TEAM
Pavel Kushnir Deutsche
Climbing
the final rung to finish on top for the first time, Oleg Maximov impresses investors
with "elegantly written research" and a "long record of profitable picks." Maximov,
38, joined Troika Dialog in 2003 after serving as a buy-side analyst covering emerging-markets stocks for the United Services
Automobile Association in Austin, Texas; he earned a master's degree in public administration from New Jersey's Rutgers University
in 1996. In January Maximov told clients to buy NovaTek, calling the global depositary
receipts of the natural-gas producer a bargain at $19.58. The GDRs soared to
$35.50 through April, an 81.3 percent gain that far outpaced the oil and gas sector's 36.5 percent advance. Alexander Burgansky of Renaissance Capital, who slips one notch
to second place, "is helpful in both good times and bad," insists one supporter. In
April 2008, Burgansky downgraded Urals Energy to sell, at 171.5p, citing the oil and gas producer's excessive debt. By the end of April 2009, the stock had plummeted 92.3 percent,a to 13.25p.
Deutsche Bank's Pavel Kushnir finishes in third place for a second straight
year. "He identifies investment ideas
ahead of the consensus," observes one money manager. Case in point: Kushnir's
January recommendation to buy shares of Rosneft Oil Co. on the belief that energy exporters would likely post higher earnings
as the ruble weakened against the dollar. The stock had bubbled up 57 percent
by the end of April.
CORPORATE DEBT
Petr Grishin
Renaissance
SECOND TEAM
Maxime Raskosnov Renaissance
THIRD TEAM
Alexey Bulgakov Troika
Praised
for "independent insights across
a range of topics," in the words of one money manager, Renaissance
Capital's Petr Grishin, 31, repeats in first place. Government-owned Krasnoyarsk Airlines' high debt, aged aircraft fleet and operational losses prompted Grishin
to steer clients away from the company's bonds in August, despite official promises to continue funding operations. By October the air carrier had ceased operations. "Petr is
always our first call—he invariably proves to be as knowledgeable and helpful as expected," marvels one admirer. Grishin's RenCap colleague Maxim Raskosnov
vaults from runner-up to second place.
Raskosnov, who specializes in bank credits, warned clients last June that Bank Soyuz's declining profits made its debt
overvalued, and in October Moody's downgraded the bank's credit rating because of its "weakening liquidity profile following
its recent significant trading losses, as well as the outflow of a sizable portion of customer funds." In December the troubled bank agreed to be acquired by Gazprom Group in a government-backed takeover. Alexey Bulgakov, who left RenCap in August to join Troika Dialog, repeats in the No. 3 position. In January the analyst recommended Red Arrow International Leasing's 2012 notes, which had sunk to 57 percent
of par value, on the belief that they offered short-term exposure to quasisovereign debt as the Russian currency was primed
to rally. By the end of April, the notes had climbed back to 87 percent of par. "Alexey thinks like a bond guy," says one appreciative investor.
FIXED-INCOME STRATEGY
Alexei Moisseev
Renaissance
SECOND TEAM
Alexander Kudrin
Troika
THIRD TEAM
Nikolay Podguzov
Renaissance
Alexei Moisseev of Renaissance Capital takes the top prize for the
third straight year. In November Moisseev, 36, recommended shorting the ruble
versus the euro, when the Russian currency was trading at 34.50 to its European counterpart, owing to rising consumer spending
and investment. The ruble plunged to 47.19 per euro by early-February, before
rallying slightly to 43.97 by the end of April. In January Moisseev predicted
the ruble would hit bottom relative to the dollar "within the next month," slumping to 37.
In mid-February the ruble sank to 36.46 before rebounding to 33.27 by the end of April.
"His insights helped us make the right FX decisions," cheers a buy-side loyalist.
Leaping from runner-up to second place is Alexander Kudrin, who "always
has good ideas," according to one investor. In December the Troika Dialog strategist
told clients that panic, not fundamentals, had pushed the yield on Russia's benchmark Russia 30-year Eurobonds to 850 basis
points over the yield on ten-year U.S. Treasuries. He predicted the spread would
narrow dramatically in the first half of 2009, when disaffected equity investors turned to bonds. By April's end the spread had tightened to 500 basis points. RenCap's
Nikolay Podguzov, who repeats in third place, also impressed clients with a bullish
view of Russian Eurobonds in December, especially those issued by steelmakers. He
recommended TMK's 2009 notes, with a yield of 2,245 basis points over ten-year U.S. Treasuries, and Severstal's 2013 notes,
with a yield of 3,300 basis points. By the end of April, the spreads had narrowed
to 1,056 and 1,650 basis points, respectively. "His recommendations work well,"
affirms one booster. ##
