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Today: My summer hiatus is over and as summer turns to fall kick back and watch a game with Sir Rantalot.
Read on for:
-"3 in the morning hit the Fat Burger"
-East Coast fans are soooooooo knowledgable...Not.
- Let's Catch Up (II)
-Let's Catch Up (I)
Also:
-New (after several months) Link of the Month
-Check the Mailbag for an exciting announcement!
-Archived Rants at the bottom of the page
-Sir Rantalot
Thursday, October 28, 2004
What Happend? Who Do I Blame (Part I)
OK,
Rant fans I promised a post mortem on the season and here it is.Even though I tried to be optimistic
the sad fact is that the season turned out much as I predicted it would; the
A's missed the playoffs.But
why?Here's a brief look back on
what I said then, and what happened in the end.
After
the season was a week old I had this to say:
"Scoot has shown something during this first week...he
reminds me a lot of Mark Ellis' first few games at second in 2002. So, I
looked at Ellis' first five games after he took over the starting job (his
first five consecutive games) and compared them to Scoot's first five
games. Here's what I found:
Ellis 5 games:
.400/0/5/.500/.450/..950
Scutaro 5 games: .313/0/3/.353/.500/.853
Ellis' numbers are better,
which we would expect, still Scoot's
numbers are very respectable. Ellis ended the year at
.273/6/35/.359/.394/.753, never hit a major slump and never lost the starting
job."
So what happened?
Here's
the final numbers on Scoot who, unlike Ellis did slump at times though mostly
when he was moved around in the lineup.In fact he was, at one time, the most productive #9 hitter in baseball.His production from
that slot was far
superior to his production at any other slot.He platooned with Mark McLemore quite a bit which I'm
fine
with since McLemore had a decent year.Here's Scoot's numbers compared with Ellis' rookie stats.
-Scoot: .273/7/43/.297/.393/.690
(345)
-Ellis:.272/6/35/.359/.394/.753 (455)
Like I said at the
start of the year Scoot's year compare favorably to Ellis' rookie season.He had slightly better raw
offensive
numbers even though he had 110 fewer at bats.Still, Ellis' season ranks higher because of his better
OBP
and OPS. Scoot was not as flashy as Ellis in the field, but by measurable
standards his .983 fielding percentage was better than Ellis' .968.The bottom line is that the loss
of
Ellis for the year was not a primary cause for their failure to make the
playoffs this year.
Outfielders:
This
was a huge issue coming into the season.Would Dye rebound?Would
Kotsay rebound?Would Byrnes
rebound?Would Kielty deliver on
the promise he showed in Minnesota?With all this rebounding going on, is this really a baseball team?Where's Shaq?Here's what I said this spring:
"-Kotsay needs to do better than last year, and better than
his career averages of .281/12/63/.338/.756(582AB). Still, he's better
than T-Long on both offense and defense."
Here's what happened:
-Kotsay .314/15/63/.370/.459/.829
(606)
-Long.295/03/28/.355/.420/.756 (288)
Kotsay ended up with better
numbers across the board as Long
proved that he was what Macha told him he was last year, a part time player who
was lucky to be in a situation that afforded him an opportunity to play almost
everyday.Once Long got to San
Diego where they had better outfielders he became the role player he was
destined to be.As I wrote in mid
season, "Long thinks he'd be a great 5 hole hitter, the Padres seem to
think he makes a good pinch hitter."Long's 288 ABs were his fewest since becoming a regular player.
I also said:
"-Dye clearly
needs to bounce back. His numbers have dropped every year he's been in
Oakland. If Dye can stay healthy and get back to the numbers he had in
2000-2001 the A's will be very dangerous. Dye could be the X factor for
the A's this year."
Here's what happened:
-Dye .265/23/80/.329/.464/.793
Dye did rebound, but he was
not the X factor I'd hoped he'd
be.While his numbers were better
than they'd been the past couple years they still did not approach the
production he'd had when the A's traded for him in 2001.
Finally, I said:
"Byrnes
will get some good PT and will likely be a late inning defensive
replacement. He brings great energy to the team and a badly needed
infusion of speed. If he could just remember to touch home plate he'd be
invaluable.So far the talk
I've
heard says that Bobby Kielty's fast start will keep Eric Byrnes from getting
much PT. However Macha is trying to find spots for him (Byrnesie's only AB so
far was his PH double that won the game against Texas on opening
day). "
Final
numbers for Byrnes and Kielty look thuslike:
-Byrnes .283/20/73/.347/.467/.814
(569)
-Kielty .214/07/31/.321/.370/.691
(238)
Kielty couldn't keep up his
early season pace and ended up with
only 238 ABs.Depending on his
contract status he'll either be traded, allowed to leave, or end up as a backup
to Nick Swisher who I predict will end up a starter and ROY candidate next
year.I think Kielty has value
because he's a switch hitter and he has a big arm in the outfield.
To summarize, the outfielders
are not the reason the A's missed the
playoffs.
The
Rookie:
"Bobby Crosby will be the starting short stop at some point
next season."
Yeah, like on opening
day.So what did Sir Rantalot
predict for the youngster?
"Crosby did better at AAA: .308/22/90 (compared with .000/0/0
in his call up last season). He should be OK this year but his true
impact will likely be felt in the years to come. It took Tejada three
years before he really blossomed. There's a ton more pressure on Crosby
than there was on Tejada back in '97. Hopefully he can handle it better
than Carlos Pena did."
Crosby ended up having a decent
year.Sure, it was nothing like Tejada's, but it didn't hurt too
bad.He was OK at the plate and
better than expected in the field.How good was his rookie season?Let's look at Crosby compared to a couple other touted A's rookies.Tejada and Ben Grieve both
came up to
the show to stay in 1997, here's alook at the rookie seasons for the three
players:
-Grieve .288/18/89/.386/.458/.844
-Crosby .239/22/64/.319/.426/.744
-Tejada .233/11/45/.298/.384/.682
So here we see Crosby
sandwiched between the two.As you
may recall Grieve won the ROY that year and was projected for greatness while
Tejada was considered a raw prospect who may or may not develop into a productive
major leaguer.Hmmm...So, what can
we deduce from Crosby's stats?Nothing.For every Chipper
Jones there's a Todd Hollandsworth.Crosby won't be the AL ROY this year (Lew Ford leads all rookies in most
offensive categories).We won't
know what Crosby will be until a few years from now when he becomes it.What we do know is that overall
Crosby
didn't hurt the team by not being Tejada.In fact, he probably helped a lot just by being Bobby Crosby, knowing
his role and not pressing too much.Sure, it would have been nice to have Tejada's .311/34/150, but the
bottom line is that Crosby is not the reason the A's missed the playoffs.
Catchers:
"News Flash!
Damian Miller is not Ramon
Hernandez!"
I meant this in terms of offense,
and it continued to be true
throughout the year.Here's the
season totals for each player:
-Miller:.272/09/58/.339/.403/.742 (397)
-Hernandez:
.276/18/63/.341/.477/.818 (384)
I
also said this:
"I'm sure someone knows how
many runs Miller has saved behind the plate, but that person ain't me."
So, was there a defensive difference
between the two?
FPCT PB SBACSCS%CERA INN*
Miller.99994635.4354.24963
Hernandez .99275321.2844.03925
*FPCT = Fielding Percentage
PB = Passed Balls SBA = Stolen Bases Allowed CS = Caught Stealing CS% =
Percentage of Runners Caught Stealing CERA = Catcher's ERA (Team ERA with this
catcher behind the plate) INN = Innings Caught
In
raw numbers Miller was better
than Hernandez in almost every defensive category save two.Among the two only one is really
important, but it's really important.First the less important one, Miller had two more PB than Hernandez.I know what yer thinking,
he also
caught 38 more innings.Still,
Miller allowed a PB every 107 INN (or 1 every 12 games) while Hernandez only
allowed one PB every 132 INN (or 1 every 14 games).That's a difference of .00178 PB/INN, statistically
startling, if yer building a bridge, fairly insignificant in real life.The big difference between
Miller and
Hernandez is the CERA, Hernandez allowed fewer runs than Miller did which is
significant (more on this later).
Again,
I know what yer thinking,
it's not fair to compare CERA numbers between two guys who were working with
different staffs.Yer right.So let's look at something else I said
this spring,
"Since
the playoffs I've become
a big Adam Melhuse fan. Despite his choke in game 5 he showed ability to
hit in the clutch. Who knows what he'd do over a full year, but his
numbers .299/5/14/.372/.957(77AB) look good. Macha says that players
write the lineup and I'm hoping Melhuse takes the job from Miller who is a big
drop from Hernandez."
So,
let's compare Melhuse and
Miller:
Offense:
-Melhuse : .257/11/31/.309/.463/.771
(214)
-Miller:.272/9/58/.339/.403/.742 (397)
The raw numbers show that Melhuse
hit for a higher average and for
more power thought he had a lower OBP.Miller's RBI numbers are actually close to Melhuse's when you adjust for
the disparity in ABs with Miller getting an RBI every 6.8 ABs and Melhuse
getting an RBI every 6.9 ABs.
Defense:
FPCTPBSBACSCS%CERAINN
-Melhuse.99552713 .3254.05504
- Miller.99994635.4354.24963
Like with Hernandez Miller leads
in every category except two, the
same two.We know Miller passed a
ball every 12 games.Melhuse was a
little better allowing a PB every 101 INN (or 1 every 11 games).The difference there is only .00057
PB/INN.The major difference
between the two is that Melhuse had a lower CERA than Miller working with
primarily the same pitchers.
The
upshot of all this is that Melhuse was better than Miller.Miller got more playing time based on
the reputation that he is a wiz at handling pitchers, a reputation that is not
born out by the numbers.Despite
this, the catching rotation is not the reason the A's missed the playoffs, but
we're getting closer, Especially with the whole CERA thing.
The Smoking Gun:
As
you may have noticed, I have eliminated almost all of the position players as
reasons for the A's missing the playoffs.I didn't discuss the bench, but to make a long story slightly less long,
the bench ain't to blame.Overall,
the offense was not to blame.Here's the team's offensive totals for this year (no playoffs) and last
year playoffs!).
2003
Team:
.254/176/742/.327/.417/.743
2004
Team:.270/189/752/.343/.433/.776
As you can see, this year's
team was better in every offensive
category.The offense was good
enough to get the job done.
I've mentioned that I think
Miller was part of the problem, so who
does that leave?
That's right Rant fans, the
blame falls squarely on...Curt
Young.That's right, #41 in your
program, but #1 in your bile duct, it's A's pitching coach Curt Young.I guess you could also blame
whoever
(rhymes with Jilly Jeane) allowed Rick Peterson to leave the organization.The bottom line for the
season is this;
the pitching staff, across the board, was not as good as it was in 2003.Here's what I said in October:
"The
A's may allow pitching coach Rick Peterson to move to the Mets without
compensation. That's right,
the A's may lose one of the best coaches
in the game in return for absolutely nothing. If you have any doubts
about Peterson's value to the team just look at the staff. Sure, the big
three are very good pitchers with a ton of ability, but look at what Peterson
did with some more marginal talent.Losing Peterson would be as huge a loss for Oakland as losing Tejada.Letting Peterson go would be a huge
mistake. Peterson's value to the team is second only to Billy
Beane's. Peterson makes the A's staff go. He is a mechanics guru
and is a big part of the reason that the big three have stayed as healthy as
they have. He can find the positives in almost anyone and turn shaky
pitchers into solid contributors. If he does go to the Mets expect two
things, a rise in Oakland's team ERA along with a sharp decline in wins, and at
least 15 wins from Steve Trachsel.
So
what happened?The numbers speak
for themselves:
Team Pitching:
2003: 96-663.63 ERA
2004: 91-714.17 ERA
Yes,
this represents a decline of only five wins.But that's misleading, especially if you look at the jump
in
offense. As I predicted, the loss of Peterson led to a decline in the A's
pitching.
Blown Saves:
The
A's had 26 blown saves this year.Read that again, TWENTY-SIX BLOWN SAVES!!!They lost the division by one game.For the math impaired this means that
if they had blown just two fewer saves they would have made the playoffs.It means that if they had
blown just
20% fewer saves they would have won the division long before the ALWS began.
Also,
Hudson was injured for an
extended stretch for the first time in his career,Zito saw a continued decline in his confidence (23-5
in '02,
14-12 in '03 and 11-11 this year.), and Mulder won like one game after the
all-star break.
Trachsel:
I
like using Trachsel as my prototypical mediocre pitcher, just good enough to
stick around, not good enough to be good.Unfortunately for my theory, Trachsel was Trachsel again this year.His .480 win % this year
was only
slightly better than his career win % of.474.Still, over all the Mets pitching staff saw their ERA
decline form 4.48 in 2003 to 4.09 in 2004, with roughly the same staff.
So
the bottom-line: the pitching coach let us down, and the front office let us
down by continuing to allow the talent ebb out of Oakland (let us note that two
recent A's, Damon and Foulke, just won it all).Looking ahead to next season I see...another column
at
another time.Suffice it to say
that I don't like some of what I've been hearing, like that the A's may let
Byrnes walk because he's due a raise.As I said last year, chip, chip, chip, how long before we become the KC
Royals?Unless something changes I
give it two more years.
I know I promised an end of season wrap on the A's, and it's coming, but
the numbers are taking more time than I thought, and t
I know I promised an end of season
wrap on the A's, and it's coming, but the numbers are taking more time than I
thought, and the whole thing is so depressing that every time I sit down to
write it I end up crying a eating a pint of Chubby Hubby.
Anyway, I had to weigh in on this
Sox/ Yanks series as we sit here on the cusp of a game seven that simply should
not be happening. So here's my thoughts, unedited, unformatted and
totally stream of consciousness.
WARNING: EXTREMELY POOR SPELLING BELOW
The 2001 World Series was hailed as
one of the best ever played. The Yanks, playing for all of New York, and
indeed the country, representing the city after 9/11. The Diamondbacks,
representing everyone who hates the Yanks. The best performance by two
pitchers since Koufax and Drysdale. The 2001 series had everything
including a last chance rally against the most sure thing closer in the
game. If you don't believe me, if your memory has faded, run out and buy
Buster Olney's "Last Night of the Yankee Dynasty," a must read for
all sports fans, especially those who hate the Yanks.
Next came last year's ALCS.
After another stunning collapse by the A's, the Sox and Yanks went down to the
wire in a series that rivaled the 2001 WS. ESPN Classic has already done
an hour-long documentary on that series and there is a book, "One Night at
Fenway," about the game, the team, and the history of the Sox as played
out that night. I haven't read it yet, but I will soon. The point
is, that series was going to go down in history as one of the greatest ever,
the epitome of the rivalry, untoppable.
Until this year. Just as it
took only one night for these teams to surpass their own record for the longest
playoff game ever played, it took only one year for them to supplant their own
great series. This is “The Natural,” this is “Hoosiers,” this is every
sports movie ever made. People write this stuff; this never happens in
real life. A team left for dead after a record-setting loss rising up to
force a decisive game 7. This is the absolute best story in sports.
This is “Miracle;” this is Charlie Brown and that little red haired girl; this
is what we fans hope for. This is “Angels in the Outfield of
Dreams.”
No team has ever gone down love-3
and forced a game seven. This team has. No team has ever won a best
of seven series after trailing 0-3. This team could. Why not?
Admit it, even the most die-hard Sox fan knew this series was
over after game three. Then, as we sat down to snooze through game four,
all of a sudden, it wasn't over. Still, game five is a no-brainer, the
Sox are done, it's only a matter of time. I even felt bad for the Sox
fans, I thought it would have been easier for them to get swept and get on with
their lives rather than win one measly game just before elimination, their
ultimate pain delayed only a few more hours. But then, they beat Rivera
in game four, and again in game five.
All week Andrew Siciliano of Fox
Sports Radio has been saying that the Sox would find new and interesting ways
to lose this series. It happened in game one when Mussina had a perfect
game going into the 7th, only to see the Sox come back to within one when
Papi's triple missed being a homer by 3 inches of blue wall. They still
lost. It happened in game 3 when they gave up 19 runs. It was the
curse. It was Schilling's big mouth and torn tendon. It was a
disaster.
And when it looked like the curse
might rear its ugly head again, the umpires made the right calls. When
Bellhorn's homer was almost just a double (“It's Jeffer Maier!" I
yelled), the umpires, who had been for shit all series, stepped up and got
it right. When A-Rod put the stiff arm on Arroyo it looked like the game
would end based on momentum. Watching that play, I didn’t see A-Rod's
move; all I saw was the ball rolling into right field as I thought "How
very Red Sock of them, a new and interesting way to lose." It seemed
as though the Yanks would get all the breaks again. But for a second
improbable time, the umps huddled up and got it right. The stars were
aligned!
Perhaps there was divine
intervention. Perhaps God is sick of hearing the Sox fans complain to
high heaven. There's no doubt that ultimately the Sox benefited most from
Friday's rain out. It allowed Pedro to come back on full rest in game
five. It gave Schilling one more day. It gave everyone on that
staff one more day.
And Schilling. My God,
Schilling! The Yankee killer. He started three games of that 2001
WS. He looked terrible in game one. But once he knew what was wrong
he pulled out one of the gutsiest sports performances of all time, again
rivaling Koufax for the ability to pitch through what should have been a
debilitating injury. If the Sox go on to win this series, Schilling's
performance will go down as one of the greatest sports achievements ever.
This dwarfs Willis Reed by a long shot.
No matter how this ends, it is the
best story in sports, maybe ever. I'm calling it: no matter who wins,
this is the greatest playoff series ever. The story lines, the passion,
the comebacks, everything. I have never been so excited about a game
seven before in my life, and I'm not even a Sox fan. This game is all
I've thought about since Foulke got the last out last night.
You may remember last October, I
wrote a column stating that I was done with being a fan as I had been. I
would no longer live and die with my team. I would no longer get so
geeked up for a game, or a series. Well, at least for tonight, that's out
the window. I can't wait for the game. If you are even a casual
sports fan YOU MUST WATCH THIS GAME!!!! This is David and Goliath, and
there's one pebble left. Sure the Sox have some high profile free-agent
stars, but look at some of their other regulars:
-David Ortiz: released by Minnesota
-Kevin Millar: released by Florida
-Bill Mueller: released by SF
-Mark Bellhorn: released by Colorado
-Pokey Reese: released by Pittsburgh
-Ellis Burkes: released by Cleveland
OK, I'm done. I can't
overemphasize the greatness of tonight's event. This is everything a
sports fan has ever wanted. This is what baseball, what all
sports is all about. You may never see anything like this again in
your life! (Until next year.)
So
this is it, the final weekend of the season, for some teams everything they’ve
done for the past six months comes down to what they can do in the next three
days.I’m writing this from the
back seat of the Rantalot mobile command center and I don’t have access to my
usual research tools, but as DMJ says, “never let the facts get in the way of a
good Rant.”
First,
the teams that are in.The Cards
look like crap.Their rotation is
shaky in way that reminds me of the Yankees.In fact the Cards are the NL answer to the Evil Empire, not in
payroll or evil quotient, but in make up: big sticks, poor starting staff,
great closer (Izzy has the worlds quietest 30+ saves).The Braves also have issues and I have
to believe they’ve done it with smoke, mirrors, and the mistakes of the rest of
the division as much as brilliant management.The Yanks, as mentioned have a ton of questions.Sure they can hit, but do they have
enough pitching even with a resurgent Moose?K-Brown and Vazquez haven’t shown they can pitch under
pressure in NY, El Dookie has a “tired shoulder,” the pen has thrown about a
million innings, and Rivera’s thrown about 500,000 of them.That leaves us with the Sux.The Sux, sadly, look like the best team
in baseball right now (you’re welcome Kevin).While they have their own issues, (Pete says the Yanks are
his “daddy?”) they have the scariest combo of pitching and hitting of the teams
that are in right now.The Sux
need to worry about Pete’s head, Lowe’s arm, and Wakfield’s age.Aside from Schilling their best pitcher
has been Bronson Arroyo, but will Francona go with him in game two?Or will he cave and set up a Pete,
Schill, TBD rotation.I wouldn’t
start Pete in game one, but if you don’t and he feels dissed will he go into
the tank?
Now
the fun stuff, and I’ll save the AL West for last.First, the NL wild card, I say blame the curse of the
Bartman.After all, if he hadn’t
touched that foul ball in game five or whatever the Cubs wouldn’t have tanked
in the last week losing 2-3 to the Mets and then getting mashed on by the
Reds.SF is still alive for the
both the division and the wild card and I’m hoping they get the old WC leaving
the division to the Dodgers.This
means I’m hoping LA can clinch today, then lose the next two (sorry Daniel),
while the Astros lose three and the Cubs play like the Cubs.This is in the hopes that we see a
classic and long awaited LA-SF NLCS and I can finally prove my Dodger
allegiance to DMJ.That brings us
to the Astros.Where the hell did
they come from?A month ago they
were dead. They were double-digit
games out of everything and Pettite went under the knife.All of a sudden they have a share of
that wild card pie.
Which brings us to this question: Is anyone
still upset about baseball adding the wild card?Back in ’95 purists denounced the wild card.“After all,” they said, “why should we
reward second place?”Indeed.The wild card came under fire again
when baseball went to the unbalanced schedule.This time the complaint was that the now the wild card would
be easier to attain for teams like the Red Sox who played in a division with
Tampa Bay and Baltimore, while teams in the AL West would have a tougher
road.All of these doubts should
be put to bed by now.The fact is
that the wild card keeps baseball exciting into the final weekend.Without the wild card there would be
little drama in the NL since the Cubs and Astros are a world behind the Cards
and SF needs a sweep in order to forge a tie with LA.Sure the Sux got the AL wild card again, as they have seven
out of the ten possible wild card years, but at least one of the best teams in
baseball is playing meaningful games in September and October rather than
suffering simply because they can’t out spend the Yankees.And make no mistake; the wild card is
hardly ever a slouch team.In fact
, wild card teams have averaged about 90 wins/ year.As for the unbalanced schedule, well, it hasn’t helped the
Cubs who just blew their shot against a weak division foe.Right now playoff hopes are alive in
five cities.Last week Texas, and
San Diego and Florida were alive as well.The wild card is good for baseball.It keeps more people in more places interested for a longer
period of time.
Which
brings us too…
A
very special one time event…
The
ALWS!
That’s
right folks, the most exciting series of the weekend is the ALWS, or the
American League West Series, a very special early addition to the regular
baseball playoffs.Not since 1980
have two teams ended up going head-to-head in the final weekend in a flat
footed tie for first.Among the
many intriguing series this weekend only the tilt between the A’s and Angels
will directly and independently determine who moves on, and who goes home.This is a three game series to see who
gets to go the next five game series.Also, as if this match up needed any more subplots there is the fact
that the Angels, A’s and Twins all have the same record, so a dominant
performance by any of the three will determine who gets the Sux at home, and
who has to travel to the Bronx.
So
how’s it look for the home nine?That depends, can we get Hudson from 2000, Zito from ’02 and Mulder from
before the all star break?Sure,
the A’s have the Big Three going in the series, but the Big Three have been a
big bust this month.Mulder
pitches tonight against Bartolo the Colon.Colon has been going well recently while Mulder is 0 for
September with an ERA over 8.Zito, pitching tomorrow, has been in a steady slide since the final day
of the regular season back in ’02.In fact, the best A’s pitcher this month has been Rich Harden, who may
be available out of the pen on short rest especially if the A’s lose tonight,
or fall behind tomorrow.I’d say
tonight is a must win for Oakland since, though they’ve been hitting well,
don’t want to face one game winner takes all situation against a determined
Angels club that has a good line up, and most importantly, a good pen.
And
therein lies the crux of the situation.As bad as the rotation has been for Oakland this month, the bullpen has
been abysmal all year.The A’s
lead the majors in blown saves.If
they had converted even a fourth of the saves they’ve blown they would have
clinched the division yesterday at the latest.That said, the weakness of the pen puts even more pressure
on the Big Three than in previous years because they know they have to go deep
into games and leave with big leads if Oakland has a reasonable chance at
winning.Gone are the days when
Oakland could take in reclamation project relievers and turn them into highly
coveted free agents for other teams.Gone are the days when the Big Three could win two out of any three
games against any team any time.Gone is Rick Peterson.Check the archives Rant fans.I said the when RP left the A’s pitchers would start to decline.Coincidence?I think not.
So
the final analysis?Either team
can win this series, it’s almost a toss up, but I’d give a slight edge to the
Angels based on momentum.They’ve
been chasing Oakland for some time now and they feel like they have our boys in
their sights.There’s always more
pressure being on the side that’s trying not to crumble than on the side trying
to build.Right now the A’s are
trying to stave off a disastrous month and get into the playoffs once
again.Check back Next week for a
playoff preview, or a bitter post mortem.
Want more Rants? Check out the archives just above this text.
If you want more reasoned opinion, or something more academic, check out the Essays page.
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All the news that ticks me off
Dang it! My counter was up over 3500 then the code went bad and I had to reinstall it. Anyway, take the number above and
add about 3500 to it.