Stocks Do Better Under Democratic Presidents

News and Opinion for Democrats Against Bush -- Part II

Stocks Do Better Under Democratic Presidents

"Most Democratic administrations clearly had higher-than-average excess returns, with Franklin D. Roosevelt's second term (1937-41) being the only significant exception. Republicans have been associated with lower-than-average returns, with the only significant exception being Dwight D. Eisenhower's first term (1953-57)."

New York Times November 20, 2003

ECONOMIC SCENE

Which Party in the White House Means Good Times for Investors?

By HAL R. VARIAN

The complete article is currently (3/27/04) available at-- http://www.sims.berkeley.edu/~hal/people/hal/NYTimes/2003-11-20.html [found through a Google search by title on the same date]

Excerpt--

DOES the stock market do better when a Republican is president or when a Democrat is?

The answer is: It's not even close. The stock market does far better under Democrats.

This perhaps surprising finding is examined by two finance professors at the University of California at Los Angeles, Pedro Santa-Clara and Rossen Valkanov, in an article titled "Political Cycles and the Stock Market," published in the October issue of The Journal of Finance. ...

Most Democratic administrations clearly had higher-than-average excess returns, with Franklin D. Roosevelt's second term (1937-41) being the only significant exception. Republicans have been associated with significantly lower-than-average returns, with the only exception being Dwight D. Eisenhower's first term (1953-57). ...

Hal R. Varian is a professor of business, economics and information management at the University of California at Berkeley.

http://www.nytimes.com/2003/11/20/business/20scene.html?tntemail0

FAIR USE NOTICE

This site contains copyrighted material the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. We are making such material available in our efforts to advance understanding of environmental, political, human rights, economic, democracy, scientific, and social justice issues, etc. We believe this constitutes a 'fair use' of any such copyrighted material as provided for in section 107 of the US Copyright Law. In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, the material on this site is distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information for research and educational purposes. For more information go to: http://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/17/107.shtml. If you wish to use copyrighted material from this site for purposes of your own that go beyond 'fair use', you must obtain permission from the copyright owner.