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"Have we finally found the key? It's doubtful. Productivity growth
is sustainable when driven by creativity, risk-taking, innovation and, yes, new technology. It is fleeting when it is driven
simply by downsizing and longer hours. With cost cutting still the credo and workers starting to reach physical limits, America's
so-called productivity renaissance may be over before Americans even have a chance to enjoy it."
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New York Times November 30, 2003
The Productivity Paradox
By STEPHEN S. ROACH
Excerpt--
Despite the economy's stunning 8.2 percent surge in the third quarter, the
staying power of this economic recovery remains a matter of debate. But there is one aspect of the economy on which agreement
is nearly unanimous: America's miraculous productivity. In the third quarter, productivity grew by 8.1 percent in the nonfarm
business sector — a figure likely to be revised upwards — and it has grown at an average rate of 5.4 percent in
the last two years. ...
Government data on work schedules are woefully out of touch with reality — especially in
America's largest occupational group, the professional and managerial segments, which together account for 35 percent of the
total work force. ...
Stephen S. Roach is chief economist for Morgan Stanley
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