September 29, 2002
Travel, Iraq, and Spam
Back again after more travel. These off and on weeks are part of life.
I had a very interesting and different dinner with my international colleagues. (We had North America, Europe, Asia, and Australia represented.) On an intellectual basis Americans understand that politicians are liars. They will nod their head in agreement with statements like "the way you can tell a politician is lying is to watch his lips. If they are moving, he is lying." Yet Americans don't really believe this. Their actions indicate that they think politicians mostly tell the truth. Americans argue endlessly about what politicians say. The entire war blogger, chicken hawk, blah, blah, blah is based on the assumption that speeches by politicians matter.
Aside from a few jokes, we discussed the entire Iraq, Saudi, Islamist, arabist, Baathist complex without once mentioning what any politician has said. Only actions and capabilities were discussed. It was very refreshing. The open and cheerful cynicism of the French helps expand the range of alternatives. We explored all sorts of possibilities that escape the politician oriented coverage of the media. There are a great many potential paths forward beyond those simplistic simple minded approaches being pushed in the press and on the web.
The only exception to discussing speeches was the German Justice Minister. In the opinion of my German and French colleagues she was fired for incompetence. Any politician at her level should know enough to control what they say in public, and should understand how things can be taken out of context. They had no opinion on whether she actually insulted Bush, and they didn't care. Politicians lie all the time anyhow. But a competent politician does not get into a mess like this. So she deserved to be fired for incompetence.
Now back at home, I've accumulated enough training material for my Bayesian mail filter bogofilter. Then using the excellent introduction to procmail I configured my system to split mail into normal incoming and maybe spam. So far it is working well. It still needs regular training and some enhancements before I'm really comfortable.
There are other widely used systems like Spam Assassin, and other Bayesian software like ifile. I may look into ifile in more depth, since the Bayesian approach is very fast and low overhead. The bogofilter advantage is pure marketing. ESR is a well known brand name.
The big spur for all this is the well known article by Paul Graham. He is probably not the first, but he crystalized another big spurt in efficient spam elimination.
Back again after more travel. These off and on weeks are part of life.
I had a very interesting and different dinner with my international colleagues. (We had North America, Europe, Asia, and Australia represented.) On an intellectual basis Americans understand that politicians are liars. They will nod their head in agreement with statements like "the way you can tell a politician is lying is to watch his lips. If they are moving, he is lying." Yet Americans don't really believe this. Their actions indicate that they think politicians mostly tell the truth. Americans argue endlessly about what politicians say. The entire war blogger, chicken hawk, blah, blah, blah is based on the assumption that speeches by politicians matter.
Aside from a few jokes, we discussed the entire Iraq, Saudi, Islamist, arabist, Baathist complex without once mentioning what any politician has said. Only actions and capabilities were discussed. It was very refreshing. The open and cheerful cynicism of the French helps expand the range of alternatives. We explored all sorts of possibilities that escape the politician oriented coverage of the media. There are a great many potential paths forward beyond those simplistic simple minded approaches being pushed in the press and on the web.
The only exception to discussing speeches was the German Justice Minister. In the opinion of my German and French colleagues she was fired for incompetence. Any politician at her level should know enough to control what they say in public, and should understand how things can be taken out of context. They had no opinion on whether she actually insulted Bush, and they didn't care. Politicians lie all the time anyhow. But a competent politician does not get into a mess like this. So she deserved to be fired for incompetence.
Now back at home, I've accumulated enough training material for my Bayesian mail filter bogofilter. Then using the excellent introduction to procmail I configured my system to split mail into normal incoming and maybe spam. So far it is working well. It still needs regular training and some enhancements before I'm really comfortable.
There are other widely used systems like Spam Assassin, and other Bayesian software like ifile. I may look into ifile in more depth, since the Bayesian approach is very fast and low overhead. The bogofilter advantage is pure marketing. ESR is a well known brand name.
The big spur for all this is the well known article by Paul Graham. He is probably not the first, but he crystalized another big spurt in efficient spam elimination.
rjh at 1500
[link]
September 21, 2002
Ducks and Cold Fronts
Interesting bit of information from Ducks Unlimited. It is from their print magazine, which has not yet made the web.
It turns out that ducks and geese migrate in concert with the weather. In particular, they use the regular fall cold fronts as both warnings and migration assistance. As the cold front blows through they may take wing and fly south to their next resting spot. They won't leave while the food and weather seems good where they are now, but once the local conditions deteriorate they migrate en masse on the cold fronts. The favorite is to take the night flight, so a refuge may see a massive increase or decrease in population overnight.
Ducks and geese are known to be able to sense atmospheric pressure changes, so they can feel the front coming. They tend to wait for the front to pass, and then take advantage of the north winds that usually follow the front. These can add another 10-30 mph to their already impressive 30-40 mph flying speeds. It is not known why they prefer night flights. There is speculation that they can avoid more predators, navigate the stars, get better speed, get a smoother flight, better speed, etc. It is well established that they do follow the fronts and fly at night.
There are even meteorologists who track the weather, winds, and birds using their weather radars. Sounds like fun.
Life extension for GeoSynchronous Satellites
I saw a brief snippet of another new idea for life extension of geo-synch satellites. There are three basic reasons that geo-synchs need replacing: 1) they break down. Most often some electronics component wears out and fails. 2) They run out of stationkeeping fuel. or 3) They become technologically obsolete. This approach deals with number two, running out of fuel.
Satellites are not designed to be refueled, so that is not a solution. Perhaps in the future they might, but no refueling is available for any satellite presently being built or planned. The present design efforts are shifting to Xenon ion engines because those as so wonderfully efficient. They can get ten times the total delta-v per pound of chemical thrusters. So instead of the usual 10-15 year life, they could last up to a hundred years. Most designers select a shorter life and use the extra weight allowance to add capabilities to the satellite.
These people think that they can design a second satellite that has a pole like extension that will fit into the old rocket motor and clamp on. The motor is basically useless once the satellite is in its proper orbit, but it has a good solid mechanical hold on everything. So if the second satellite can clamp on, it can then take over the stationkeeping from the original satellite. The conceptual second satellite would also have ion enginges, xenon fuel, navigation controls, and maybe some solar power panels. (Or maybe they can vampire power from the original satellite if there is a suitable access point somewhere.)
At this level it is an interesting concept. But the details of motor design and clamping will vary from satellite to satellite. There will be big issues with proper docking procedures. The old satellites were not designed with this in mind. Then there will be the issue of reprogramming the old satellite so that it does not fight with the new satellite over which one controls navigation. Getting access to power for the ion engines will be difficult. The inventors think that there are a couple dozen satellites that are candidates for life extension. These would have enough other capabilities to be worth extending, and have suitable access to slamp in this new satellite.
Interesting, but rather unlikely.
Interesting bit of information from Ducks Unlimited. It is from their print magazine, which has not yet made the web.
It turns out that ducks and geese migrate in concert with the weather. In particular, they use the regular fall cold fronts as both warnings and migration assistance. As the cold front blows through they may take wing and fly south to their next resting spot. They won't leave while the food and weather seems good where they are now, but once the local conditions deteriorate they migrate en masse on the cold fronts. The favorite is to take the night flight, so a refuge may see a massive increase or decrease in population overnight.
Ducks and geese are known to be able to sense atmospheric pressure changes, so they can feel the front coming. They tend to wait for the front to pass, and then take advantage of the north winds that usually follow the front. These can add another 10-30 mph to their already impressive 30-40 mph flying speeds. It is not known why they prefer night flights. There is speculation that they can avoid more predators, navigate the stars, get better speed, get a smoother flight, better speed, etc. It is well established that they do follow the fronts and fly at night.
There are even meteorologists who track the weather, winds, and birds using their weather radars. Sounds like fun.
Life extension for GeoSynchronous Satellites
I saw a brief snippet of another new idea for life extension of geo-synch satellites. There are three basic reasons that geo-synchs need replacing: 1) they break down. Most often some electronics component wears out and fails. 2) They run out of stationkeeping fuel. or 3) They become technologically obsolete. This approach deals with number two, running out of fuel.
Satellites are not designed to be refueled, so that is not a solution. Perhaps in the future they might, but no refueling is available for any satellite presently being built or planned. The present design efforts are shifting to Xenon ion engines because those as so wonderfully efficient. They can get ten times the total delta-v per pound of chemical thrusters. So instead of the usual 10-15 year life, they could last up to a hundred years. Most designers select a shorter life and use the extra weight allowance to add capabilities to the satellite.
These people think that they can design a second satellite that has a pole like extension that will fit into the old rocket motor and clamp on. The motor is basically useless once the satellite is in its proper orbit, but it has a good solid mechanical hold on everything. So if the second satellite can clamp on, it can then take over the stationkeeping from the original satellite. The conceptual second satellite would also have ion enginges, xenon fuel, navigation controls, and maybe some solar power panels. (Or maybe they can vampire power from the original satellite if there is a suitable access point somewhere.)
At this level it is an interesting concept. But the details of motor design and clamping will vary from satellite to satellite. There will be big issues with proper docking procedures. The old satellites were not designed with this in mind. Then there will be the issue of reprogramming the old satellite so that it does not fight with the new satellite over which one controls navigation. Getting access to power for the ion engines will be difficult. The inventors think that there are a couple dozen satellites that are candidates for life extension. These would have enough other capabilities to be worth extending, and have suitable access to slamp in this new satellite.
Interesting, but rather unlikely.
rjh at 1500
[link]
September 20, 2002
Well, a whole week. Three things written and all three not ready. I
let them sit overnight and re-read them. Maybe I'm just writing too
much for work. They all still need work. So instead, you get Morning
Coffee Notes. Sorry about the paucity of links, but I read the paper
and ink newspapers at the cafe.
Burt Rutan's Scaled Composite has yet another amazingly odd looking airplane in the works. Aviation Week got a photo, but I've not found anything yet on the web. The shape is incredibly different, although it clearly should fly. There is a lot of speculation about what this plane is for, who is the customer, what experiment are they evaluating. The pictures on their site give a sample of the odd stuff that they sometimes do.
Laptop lust continues. Unfortunately the laptop is still failing Q/C. Waah. But it sure is nice dealing with an outfit that finds and deals with these issues on their own. If this were your typical computer store, I would be shlepping the laptop back and forth dealing with these problems. There is a driver problem with the new model WiFi card.
Railroad blather in their latest press release. They are pushing the most recent frieght traffic figures. Intermodal traffic has moved up to 20% and is just barely number one. This is revenue rather than profit. The margins on intermodal are not as good as the margins on other categories. (To be fair, margins are somewhat arbitrary because the allocation of the many fixed costs of track and operations are allocated by formulae.)
They are publicizing this widely mostly to encourage the stockholders with news that traffic and revenues are recovering, and to reach potential new intermodal customers. As with most railroad releases "publicized widely" still doesn't reach all that many people.
Israeli water war This is a quiet lurker. The long running tacit agreement among Lebanon, Syria, Israel, and Jordan on water usage is breaking down. Lebanon is starting construction to take more water. Their use won't affect Syria and Jordan much. It primarily affects Israel. The motivations for the particular method and timing are unclear. The suspicion is that they hope to exploit the fixation on US and Iraqi activities. Water is more important than religion in the local politics.
Diesel particulate filters This really calls for a link but all I can find is paper. There are reports that a modifed ceramic based filter/after-burner is effective at removing diesel particulate from heavy and low quality diesel. If it works in the field, this could significantly reduce the brown haze contributions from trains and boats. It is railroad locomotives, large boats, and ships that typically burn the lower quality higher particulate diesel. Ocean going ships won't put in filters without major worldwide political battles. But railroads and local marine activities are subject to local air quality regulations.
In a related matter, there are now several different mechanisms being used to reduce the impact of idling locomotives. The railroads don't shut down locomotives because they need to keep the engines warm and provide electrical power. Large diesels don't have anti-freeze and they are a huge headache to start when cold. So locomotives are being equiped with small power units to maintain temperature, provide electricity, and to power starting the main engine. So instead of idling all night, they just run the little APU. This saves fuel because the APU is more efficient than a huge idling diesel. It also reduces air and noise pollution. (The quiet APU is immensely more popular with the neighbors than that huge noisy diesel.)
Cheap Rice I recently noticed that Basmati rice was unusually cheap. Just this week it was actually the least expensive varietal rice in the store. This is the result of a confluence of events with considerable significance to Pakistan.
Most of the events in that diagram are pretty well known. The less well known is that the current military government in Pakistan has assigned the military to an extensive repair effort on the irrigation canals. Previous governments had let these fall into partial disrepair. This was due to a mix of corruption, incompetence, indifference, and local politcal revenge. Since Pakistan primarily exports the Basmati variety of rice, it is the Basmati prices that have dropped.
Unhappy farmers may lead to further political stability issues within Pakistan.
Burt Rutan's Scaled Composite has yet another amazingly odd looking airplane in the works. Aviation Week got a photo, but I've not found anything yet on the web. The shape is incredibly different, although it clearly should fly. There is a lot of speculation about what this plane is for, who is the customer, what experiment are they evaluating. The pictures on their site give a sample of the odd stuff that they sometimes do.
Laptop lust continues. Unfortunately the laptop is still failing Q/C. Waah. But it sure is nice dealing with an outfit that finds and deals with these issues on their own. If this were your typical computer store, I would be shlepping the laptop back and forth dealing with these problems. There is a driver problem with the new model WiFi card.
Railroad blather in their latest press release. They are pushing the most recent frieght traffic figures. Intermodal traffic has moved up to 20% and is just barely number one. This is revenue rather than profit. The margins on intermodal are not as good as the margins on other categories. (To be fair, margins are somewhat arbitrary because the allocation of the many fixed costs of track and operations are allocated by formulae.)
They are publicizing this widely mostly to encourage the stockholders with news that traffic and revenues are recovering, and to reach potential new intermodal customers. As with most railroad releases "publicized widely" still doesn't reach all that many people.
Israeli water war This is a quiet lurker. The long running tacit agreement among Lebanon, Syria, Israel, and Jordan on water usage is breaking down. Lebanon is starting construction to take more water. Their use won't affect Syria and Jordan much. It primarily affects Israel. The motivations for the particular method and timing are unclear. The suspicion is that they hope to exploit the fixation on US and Iraqi activities. Water is more important than religion in the local politics.
Diesel particulate filters This really calls for a link but all I can find is paper. There are reports that a modifed ceramic based filter/after-burner is effective at removing diesel particulate from heavy and low quality diesel. If it works in the field, this could significantly reduce the brown haze contributions from trains and boats. It is railroad locomotives, large boats, and ships that typically burn the lower quality higher particulate diesel. Ocean going ships won't put in filters without major worldwide political battles. But railroads and local marine activities are subject to local air quality regulations.
In a related matter, there are now several different mechanisms being used to reduce the impact of idling locomotives. The railroads don't shut down locomotives because they need to keep the engines warm and provide electrical power. Large diesels don't have anti-freeze and they are a huge headache to start when cold. So locomotives are being equiped with small power units to maintain temperature, provide electricity, and to power starting the main engine. So instead of idling all night, they just run the little APU. This saves fuel because the APU is more efficient than a huge idling diesel. It also reduces air and noise pollution. (The quiet APU is immensely more popular with the neighbors than that huge noisy diesel.)
Cheap Rice I recently noticed that Basmati rice was unusually cheap. Just this week it was actually the least expensive varietal rice in the store. This is the result of a confluence of events with considerable significance to Pakistan.
Most of the events in that diagram are pretty well known. The less well known is that the current military government in Pakistan has assigned the military to an extensive repair effort on the irrigation canals. Previous governments had let these fall into partial disrepair. This was due to a mix of corruption, incompetence, indifference, and local politcal revenge. Since Pakistan primarily exports the Basmati variety of rice, it is the Basmati prices that have dropped.
Unhappy farmers may lead to further political stability issues within Pakistan.
rjh at 1500
[link]
September 10, 2002
Wind Power Installs expected to
decrease
The latest sales projections for the next couple years indicate a decrease in new installations. This decrease is driven by a number of factors:
Note that this is new installations. Revenues from maintenance, repair, and upgrade are becoming more significant to the turbine vendors. Total wind power generation will also increase significantly even at the lower installation rate.
Laptop Lust and Computer update
First, the good news. I got a phone call. The laptop is being built up. Dual boot Win2k and Linux. Soon the other geeks will envy me. Besides, it's a fun toy.
Then, the bad news. I had a power failure yesterday while getting back to office work. It had more than the usual headaches. This time the DHCP server decides it needs attention when power comes back. So the other machines don't boot right. I fix it then reboot them again. Some come to life but there are problems. This takes some diagnosing. It turns out another machine has decided to have network problems. It is blasting the network at full speed with ARP queries. (Totally consuming a 100MBit/sec ethernet is something to see.) The usual cable swaps and reboots make it clear that the PC has problems. So keep it powered off. And after about 45min of aggravation life returns to normal. Another couple documents get written and I make the days deadlines.
Today, I turn it back on to check the rest of the bad system before hauling it out to repair, and {cue creepy music} everything starts up just fine. No network problem to be seen. So I've got this little time bomb lurking in that machine. Something is wrong, and you can be sure it will fail at a most inconvenient time.
I also decided to tinker with the blog layout a bit. This looks somewhat better to me on Linux and Win2K.
The latest sales projections for the next couple years indicate a decrease in new installations. This decrease is driven by a number of factors:
- Germany and Spain are running out of acceptable new locations. Many of the candidate locations are too close to towns or face other local barriers to installation.
- Offshore installation growth is slow. It will not compensate for diminishing on-shore sales.
- US sales are slower due to the reduced economic activity and generally lower energy prices. These make new installations less attractive financially.
- Fallout from the creative accounting of Enron (a major wind player) and others makes finance sources much more cautious.
- Other nations' wind power installations are increasing, but much more slowly than the projected decreases in Germany and Spain.
Note that this is new installations. Revenues from maintenance, repair, and upgrade are becoming more significant to the turbine vendors. Total wind power generation will also increase significantly even at the lower installation rate.
Laptop Lust and Computer update
First, the good news. I got a phone call. The laptop is being built up. Dual boot Win2k and Linux. Soon the other geeks will envy me. Besides, it's a fun toy.
Then, the bad news. I had a power failure yesterday while getting back to office work. It had more than the usual headaches. This time the DHCP server decides it needs attention when power comes back. So the other machines don't boot right. I fix it then reboot them again. Some come to life but there are problems. This takes some diagnosing. It turns out another machine has decided to have network problems. It is blasting the network at full speed with ARP queries. (Totally consuming a 100MBit/sec ethernet is something to see.) The usual cable swaps and reboots make it clear that the PC has problems. So keep it powered off. And after about 45min of aggravation life returns to normal. Another couple documents get written and I make the days deadlines.
Today, I turn it back on to check the rest of the bad system before hauling it out to repair, and {cue creepy music} everything starts up just fine. No network problem to be seen. So I've got this little time bomb lurking in that machine. Something is wrong, and you can be sure it will fail at a most inconvenient time.
I also decided to tinker with the blog layout a bit. This looks somewhat better to me on Linux and Win2K.
rjh at 1500
[link]
September 1, 2002
Now I must go work for a living for the next week. I'll be back.
Benjamin Graham Investing
I've got some IRA money coming available soon so I'm planning to combine some of the investment ideas from Benajmin Graham's Intelligent Investor and the tools of pseudo-mutual fund management from folio investing. Folios are available from multiple sources. I certainly recommend Graham's book. It is quite readable, and despite being written decades ago, still highly applicable. During the Internet bubble there were people who laughed at its ideas, but you will recognize the Internet bubble in the stories that Graham tells of other bubbles that burst.
The first key in Graham investing is deciding whether you are interested in being a defensive passive investor, a active investor, or a speculator. There is nothing wrong with being a speculator, but you should limit your speculation to money that you can afford to lose. Consider your reaction to the stock collapses of the Internet bubble. A speculator needs to be prepared for such losses.
Most people want to be investors. According to Graham, the active investor has the time, the interest, and the skill to personally investigate companies and choose investments accordingly. Most people are not active investors. For this IRA money passive investing is appropriate. My strategy will be:
The investment strategy is then simple:
Benjamin Graham Investing
I've got some IRA money coming available soon so I'm planning to combine some of the investment ideas from Benajmin Graham's Intelligent Investor and the tools of pseudo-mutual fund management from folio investing. Folios are available from multiple sources. I certainly recommend Graham's book. It is quite readable, and despite being written decades ago, still highly applicable. During the Internet bubble there were people who laughed at its ideas, but you will recognize the Internet bubble in the stories that Graham tells of other bubbles that burst.
The first key in Graham investing is deciding whether you are interested in being a defensive passive investor, a active investor, or a speculator. There is nothing wrong with being a speculator, but you should limit your speculation to money that you can afford to lose. Consider your reaction to the stock collapses of the Internet bubble. A speculator needs to be prepared for such losses.
Most people want to be investors. According to Graham, the active investor has the time, the interest, and the skill to personally investigate companies and choose investments accordingly. Most people are not active investors. For this IRA money passive investing is appropriate. My strategy will be:
- select a subset of stocks with at least AA financial rating,
- with 5+ years of giving dividends,
- with good dividend growth over the past 10 years,
- with below average P/E ratios
- Eliminate a few categories that I do not like, e.g. tobacco.
- Pick 25 of these randomly.
The investment strategy is then simple:
- Put 50% into a corporate bonds mix (e.g. fund)
- Put 50% into this mix of stocks
- Monitor the stocks. If any fall out of those criteria (or look about to), eliminate that stock and pick another randomly.
- When there is more than 60% value in bonds, sell bonds and buy stocks in the portfolio mix to return to 50:50.
- When there is more than 60% value in stocks, sell stocks and buy bonds.
rjh at 1500
[link]
August 28, 2002
Linux Sound
A while ago I needed to do something a little unusual with sound, and I had the option to try this on either Windows and Linux. I got a stack of language cassettes. This would not normally be a problem, but my only cassette player is a boom box. I wanted these put onto my laptop so that I can listen while traveling.
Step one, a little web searching. I quickly found that I could cable the boom box into a PC, digitize the voice while playing the cassettes, and voila. There was one nice web page at a university with lots of pictures and diagrams of exactly how to cable this up. They also have boomboxes and PCs. So I had three choices: 1) Install a "free" Microsoft program, 2) buy a $30 program for Windows, or 3) try my Linux support.
The "free" program had two problems. First, it required that I authorize Microsoft to roam around my computer removing any software that they didn't like (both now and into the future). Not really free is it. Reading license agreements takes the fun out of "free". They only offered their automatic update service too. So there was no technical option of installing the program without letting them roam around changing things. Second, it didn't have the low sample rate for voice, so the files were going to be huge. That was out.
The $30 option looked reasonable, but would cost money.
So the Linux approach. I have a SuSE package so I have available the unusual option of reading the manual. It described some programs for capturing sound, so pop in the CDROM, fire up the installer, and install them. Then once again, read the manual. It turns out the capture program (arecord) is a command line program. This is not quite pushbutton, but it is close. The cassettes are 1 hour, and there was this nice command option to control record time. So, I capture mono for 3600 seconds; push the cassette button; and forget about it.
All the cassettes are now captured and converted into Ogg files. Ogg gave me warnings about not being optimized for low data rate voice, but the files sound OK. The loss is in compression ratio. It only got about 2:1 compression. Still, each cassette is about the size of a long song, so the whole batch sits comfortably on the laptop.
The mass market Windows buyer wants the appliance experience. They want to buy the product, put the CDROM in the computer, and push a button. I want that experience when dealing with my microwave, washing machine, or DVD. Manuals!? I don't want to read a manual for the microwave. I want to buy it, plug it in, and push a button. This is the next hurdle for Linux on the desktop. To be a pushbutton experience you need to restrict the options dramatically. Restricting options to the pushbutton level while remaining useful is hard. This might not happen with Linux. We'll see.
Meanwhile, for the smaller but significant body of computer users who are willing to read a manual and type a command, it all worked just fine.
A while ago I needed to do something a little unusual with sound, and I had the option to try this on either Windows and Linux. I got a stack of language cassettes. This would not normally be a problem, but my only cassette player is a boom box. I wanted these put onto my laptop so that I can listen while traveling.
Step one, a little web searching. I quickly found that I could cable the boom box into a PC, digitize the voice while playing the cassettes, and voila. There was one nice web page at a university with lots of pictures and diagrams of exactly how to cable this up. They also have boomboxes and PCs. So I had three choices: 1) Install a "free" Microsoft program, 2) buy a $30 program for Windows, or 3) try my Linux support.
The "free" program had two problems. First, it required that I authorize Microsoft to roam around my computer removing any software that they didn't like (both now and into the future). Not really free is it. Reading license agreements takes the fun out of "free". They only offered their automatic update service too. So there was no technical option of installing the program without letting them roam around changing things. Second, it didn't have the low sample rate for voice, so the files were going to be huge. That was out.
The $30 option looked reasonable, but would cost money.
So the Linux approach. I have a SuSE package so I have available the unusual option of reading the manual. It described some programs for capturing sound, so pop in the CDROM, fire up the installer, and install them. Then once again, read the manual. It turns out the capture program (arecord) is a command line program. This is not quite pushbutton, but it is close. The cassettes are 1 hour, and there was this nice command option to control record time. So, I capture mono for 3600 seconds; push the cassette button; and forget about it.
All the cassettes are now captured and converted into Ogg files. Ogg gave me warnings about not being optimized for low data rate voice, but the files sound OK. The loss is in compression ratio. It only got about 2:1 compression. Still, each cassette is about the size of a long song, so the whole batch sits comfortably on the laptop.
Philosophizing on Linux vs Windows
This experience is increasingly typical for Linux. I didn't need to compile anything, reboot, or have special priviledges. I needed to be willing to read a manual and type some commands on the keyboard. On Windows I could buy some software and push some buttons. With the Windows programs I would have had to hang around to stop the recording at the end of the cassette also. This is increasingly the typical difference between Linux and Windows. Linux requires you to read and type. It is not demanding or difficult. The manual (no longer a Windows concept) had a section on sound, showed the commands available, and showed how to use them. The installer had the list of stuff available and installed the software I selected. But I did need to read and type.The mass market Windows buyer wants the appliance experience. They want to buy the product, put the CDROM in the computer, and push a button. I want that experience when dealing with my microwave, washing machine, or DVD. Manuals!? I don't want to read a manual for the microwave. I want to buy it, plug it in, and push a button. This is the next hurdle for Linux on the desktop. To be a pushbutton experience you need to restrict the options dramatically. Restricting options to the pushbutton level while remaining useful is hard. This might not happen with Linux. We'll see.
Meanwhile, for the smaller but significant body of computer users who are willing to read a manual and type a command, it all worked just fine.
rjh at 1500
[link]
August 27, 2002
Patient Satellite Work
There are two geosynchronous satellites that are slowly being recovered after launch failures. In a world that seems fascinated by Internet time and instant gratification it is nice to have the occasional reminder that there are also people who have the patience to do things that take time.
The first of these is the Artemis satellite. It is a geosynchronous telecommunications satellite that suffered a serious launch failure in 2001. The stage that was supposed to boost it from low earth into geosynchronous transfer malfunctioned. It was left in a transfer orbit only partway to geosynchronous. The story of its ongoing recovery is a classic tortoise vs hare story.
The Artemis includes four little ion engines. These engines were intended for routine stationkeeping in geosynchronous orbit. The earth is not quite spherical, so geosynchronous satellites need regular little pushes to keep them in their proper location. Otherwise they drift back and forth in the sky. The newer satellites use ion engines. An ion engine uses electricity and xenon gas to generate thrust. The thrust is extraordinarily small. It is a tiny fraction of the weight of a feather. But the ion engine can run continuously for days, so the total thrust can add up substantially. They are particularly popular for stationkeeping because they generate ten times more total thrust per kilogram than chemical rockets.
The recovery is using one of the ion engines to gradually boost the satellite into orbit. It has been running for over a year now and is expected to have Artemis in its proper orbit by the end of the year. The original chemical rocket would have fired for about ten minutes to achieve the same goal. The total operating lifespan for Artemis will be shortened, but it will still be valuable. There should be enough xenon left to maintain several years of operation.
Artemis is one of the geosynchronous satellites that includes a optical communications link. It has already been tested and it is working properly. Some of the low orbiting scientific research satellites also have optical links. They will be able to use the optical link with Artemis to relay data to earth stations. Eventually this kind of optical link between satellites will become fairly common. It has tremendous speed capabilities, and it frees the radio frequencies for communicating with earth stations. Optical to earth has some problems with atmospheric interference (e.g. clouds).
The other satellite recovery is the TDRS-I satellite. (That's the letter I, meaning it is the ninth satellite.) It suffered a different kind of launch failure. There is a stuck valve on the fuel lines to its final boost motor. They have figured out how to re-route fuel, but the result is that they can only give a series of shorter boosts. This is being done, and it should be in proper orbit within a couple months.
Fortunately for both satellites, the failures and recovery can be done without spending excessive time in the Van Allen belts. Communication satellites are not designed to withstand weeks of radiation at that dose level. They are designed for the much lower levels at geosynchronous orbit, and with the expectation of only a few traversals of the Van Allen belts.
There are two geosynchronous satellites that are slowly being recovered after launch failures. In a world that seems fascinated by Internet time and instant gratification it is nice to have the occasional reminder that there are also people who have the patience to do things that take time.
The first of these is the Artemis satellite. It is a geosynchronous telecommunications satellite that suffered a serious launch failure in 2001. The stage that was supposed to boost it from low earth into geosynchronous transfer malfunctioned. It was left in a transfer orbit only partway to geosynchronous. The story of its ongoing recovery is a classic tortoise vs hare story.
The Artemis includes four little ion engines. These engines were intended for routine stationkeeping in geosynchronous orbit. The earth is not quite spherical, so geosynchronous satellites need regular little pushes to keep them in their proper location. Otherwise they drift back and forth in the sky. The newer satellites use ion engines. An ion engine uses electricity and xenon gas to generate thrust. The thrust is extraordinarily small. It is a tiny fraction of the weight of a feather. But the ion engine can run continuously for days, so the total thrust can add up substantially. They are particularly popular for stationkeeping because they generate ten times more total thrust per kilogram than chemical rockets.
The recovery is using one of the ion engines to gradually boost the satellite into orbit. It has been running for over a year now and is expected to have Artemis in its proper orbit by the end of the year. The original chemical rocket would have fired for about ten minutes to achieve the same goal. The total operating lifespan for Artemis will be shortened, but it will still be valuable. There should be enough xenon left to maintain several years of operation.
Artemis is one of the geosynchronous satellites that includes a optical communications link. It has already been tested and it is working properly. Some of the low orbiting scientific research satellites also have optical links. They will be able to use the optical link with Artemis to relay data to earth stations. Eventually this kind of optical link between satellites will become fairly common. It has tremendous speed capabilities, and it frees the radio frequencies for communicating with earth stations. Optical to earth has some problems with atmospheric interference (e.g. clouds).
The other satellite recovery is the TDRS-I satellite. (That's the letter I, meaning it is the ninth satellite.) It suffered a different kind of launch failure. There is a stuck valve on the fuel lines to its final boost motor. They have figured out how to re-route fuel, but the result is that they can only give a series of shorter boosts. This is being done, and it should be in proper orbit within a couple months.
Fortunately for both satellites, the failures and recovery can be done without spending excessive time in the Van Allen belts. Communication satellites are not designed to withstand weeks of radiation at that dose level. They are designed for the much lower levels at geosynchronous orbit, and with the expectation of only a few traversals of the Van Allen belts.
rjh at 2300
[link]
August 26, 2002
Yikes. A whole week has gone past with me buried in work. I'll be
getting in a few updates this week, but the week after labor day is a
lost cause. I'll be totally swamped and nothing will be updated.
Just fair warning.
African Agriculture
The Economist and Financial Times have had several recent articles on African agriculture and US foreign aid to southern Africa.
The small saplings provide more than just the nutrient benefit. They also act as weed control during the off season. Weeds and parasites that normally attack crops are noticeably reduced by the presence of the saplings. Then the saplings provide firewood when they are cut as part of preparation for the next year's crops.
This style of agriculture is gradually spreading through those parts of Africa where the climate is suitable. This include large portions of sub-Saharan Africa.
The American practice is to send food grown in the United States and to set up trade barriers to keep out food grown elsewhere. So the US discourages and penalizes the better run countries while feeding and rewarding the badly run countries. The author puzzles over why the US should have such a counter productive foreign policy.
The answer is easy, just not obvious in Europe. The US food aid program is designed for purely domestic policy reasons. It has no concept of foreign policy impact. It exists to fund US farmers and build markets for US food products. Harm to the better run countries in Africa is not even considered.
Well, the laptop is ordered. They promptly called back to explain that the manufacturer is backordered. So it might arrive this week. Or maybe next week. Waaah. The inner child wants to throw a temper tantrum.
It will be a dual boot Windows 2000 and Linux system. More details when it arrives.
African Agriculture
The Economist and Financial Times have had several recent articles on African agriculture and US foreign aid to southern Africa.
Legumaceous Trees
The Economist has a nice writeup on the use of legumaceous trees in African agriculture. It is normal in temperate agriculture to use fallow years with the planting of legumes to provide nutrients to the soil. Fallow years are difficult to manage in Africa. In portions of sub-Saharan Africa there are legumaceous trees that can be used as an alternative. They have the advantage that they can be planted at the same time as the primary crop. If the farmer is careful, the trees grow together with the regular crop, and then continue to grow into small saplings during the off season. They provide the same nutrient value as the fallow year in temperate climates without requiring farmers to skip a harvest.The small saplings provide more than just the nutrient benefit. They also act as weed control during the off season. Weeds and parasites that normally attack crops are noticeably reduced by the presence of the saplings. Then the saplings provide firewood when they are cut as part of preparation for the next year's crops.
This style of agriculture is gradually spreading through those parts of Africa where the climate is suitable. This include large portions of sub-Saharan Africa.
American Food Aid
In Financial Times there is an article discussing the puzzlement over US food aid to Africa. The European practice is to buy food from other nearby countries that have had good harvests. Since many of the famines, including all of this years' famines, are due to governmental corruption, incompetence, or malice, there are other better run countries that have good harvests. This practice provides hard currency to the better run countries, and may encourage the stability of the better run countries.The American practice is to send food grown in the United States and to set up trade barriers to keep out food grown elsewhere. So the US discourages and penalizes the better run countries while feeding and rewarding the badly run countries. The author puzzles over why the US should have such a counter productive foreign policy.
The answer is easy, just not obvious in Europe. The US food aid program is designed for purely domestic policy reasons. It has no concept of foreign policy impact. It exists to fund US farmers and build markets for US food products. Harm to the better run countries in Africa is not even considered.
rjh at 2300
[link]
Laptop Lust UpdateWell, the laptop is ordered. They promptly called back to explain that the manufacturer is backordered. So it might arrive this week. Or maybe next week. Waaah. The inner child wants to throw a temper tantrum.
It will be a dual boot Windows 2000 and Linux system. More details when it arrives.